future of flight travel

The future of air travel

In this episode of the McKinsey Podcast , Simon London speaks with McKinsey senior partner Alex Dichter and partner Robin Riedel about the economics of the airline industry.

Podcast transcript

Simon London: Hello, and welcome to this episode of the McKinsey Podcast , with me, Simon London. In this first episode of 2020, we are going to be talking about the present, and future, of air travel. On the one hand, these are exciting times for aviation. The airline industry is enjoying an all-too-rare period of healthy profits, and there is very real potential in new modes of air travel, ranging from unmanned air taxis to next-generation supersonic planes.

And yet there is increasing awareness, among passengers and policy makers, that flying is a carbon-intensive mode of transportation. The concept of flygskam , roughly translated from the Swedish as “flight shame,” is a topic of conversation in the media and in boardrooms alike. To discuss all this and more, I caught up with a couple of commercial pilots turned McKinsey partners. Alex Dichter is American, now based in London; Robin Riedel is German, now based in San Francisco. They both work extensively with airlines and, like many of us, fly extensively for work.

Alex and Robin, thank you for being here and welcome to the podcast.

Robin Riedel: Glad to be here.

Alex Dichter: Great to be here.

Simon London: Let’s start with a little bit of industry economics. This industry is famous—has been famous over the years—for destroying value for investors. But the last few years have been better. Alex, just tell us what’s changed?

Alex Dichter: Sure. We are indeed about to finish the fifth year of consecutive profitability in the airline industry, depending on how you measure it. The industry’s made a small economic profit in each of the last five years. Certainly, no matter how you measure it, it’s been the most profitable five-year period in 80 years of industry history.

Some of that, to be clear, is good luck. We’ve had relatively robust GDP growth across the world, and certainly in the US, over that period. Fuel prices have been lower than average. But I do think that there are some things that the airline industry has figured out that are working better. Chief among them would be what the industry refers to as ancillary revenues.

To illustrate the point, in a typical year over the last five years, the industry as a whole has made an economic profit of, let’s say, $35 billion. In any of those same years, the global sales of ancillary revenue—[for] seat assignments, bag fees, credit-card fees—has been north of $50 billion. In other words, you could say that all of the industry profit is coming from ancillaries. Of course, it’s a bit more complicated than that, but it is a big structural change and it’s really helping the industry.

Simon London: It’s interesting. It’s like the biggest innovation in the airline industry over the last ten years or so actually has been revenue management, or pricing innovation, as opposed to fancy new aircraft.

Alex Dichter: I don’t want to discount the impact of fancy new aircraft. Certainly, as a pilot, those are very important to me. But, yes, it’s a big structural change and, by the way, it’s one that the airline industry didn’t invent. It used to be that we all paid for our checking accounts. Today, the checking account tends to be free and we pay a little bit extra for physical checks, a little bit extra for this, a little bit extra for that. It’s true in telecoms. It’s true in many other industries. What the industry is doing is responding to human behavior.

People are less responsive to changes in these fees than they are to changes in the price of the ticket. When the price of the ticket goes up by a dollar or two, airlines see an immediate effect in their demand. When we change the seat-assignment fee from $6 to $7 or $7 to $8, people may buy fewer seat assignments but they don’t buy fewer tickets. From an industry-structure standpoint, that’s probably a healthier way of building revenue rather than simply bundling everything into the ticket price.

Robin Riedel: I think what Alex said is absolutely right, and then I would add that, operationally, we’ve seen massive progress. They’re using aircraft a lot more than they have in the past and spreading the cost of those aircraft. At the same [time], crews are much more productive than they have been in the past. [For] all kinds of different cost items, we’ve found ways, over the last decade or so, to significantly reduce [them].

Simon London: This is where I’m going to put my traveler hat on. Is there a sense then, Robin, that this little profitable spell for the industry has been somewhat … passengers are paying for it? It feels like I do have to pay for a lot of things I never used to have to pay for. Plus, I have crowded airports, crowded planes. I think the traveler experience doesn’t feel like a great one at the moment.

Robin Riedel: It’s an interesting observation. I do think if you look at the data, it would tell a bit of a different story, a more nuanced story. I think there’s lots of positives that are better today than they were before. I think, on the one hand, you have more choice.

You say things are more crowded. You may pay for more things, but it’s actually your choice to do so. If you want the fantastic experience, you can pay for that and actually get it. You can get lie-flat seats, which 20 years ago you couldn’t. You can get great airport lounges. You can get fast track. You can even get private terminals in certain places.

All of that is available. Now, overall, costs have come down. If you could look at the real cost of air travel over the years, this is one of the only industries in the world where prices continuously go down and down and down. Today, access to air travel is a multiple of what we had even ten or 20 years ago, simply because airlines have figured out how to lower costs over time, which provides access to people.

Now, on top of that, beyond the choice and beyond some of the innovation we’re seeing, there’s a couple of simple things that have just gotten better. One is on-time performance. We’re so much better today in understanding weather patterns, understanding equipment, having much more reliable equipment. While it might sometimes feel like you’re stuck in the airport longer than in the past, the facts would actually show a different story.

Alex Dichter: Robin pointed out the benefits if you’re interested in a premium experience. But, quite frankly, even in economy class, the vast majority of the global airline fleet has inflight entertainment, often with hundreds of movies and TV shows to choose from. There’s Wi-Fi on board, sometimes for a fee, sometimes not. There are extra-legroom seats that you can pay for, at reasonable prices that a lot of people choose to pay for and can afford.

I think a lot of people who refer to the golden age of air travel don’t remember what flying was like in the ’60s and ’70s. I do. I did a lot of it. Fights were long, deadly boring. There was smoking on airplanes, which a lot of people don’t like. The connections were very difficult. You always had to leave the terminal. Lots of waiting in lines. You couldn’t do anything digitally. It wasn’t quite the experience that people remember it to be. I think the one thing that is clearly more difficult today is that planes are full.

The average load factor—the percentage of seats that had people in them—in the 1970s was around 60 percent, which meant that you were almost certainly, mathematically, going to get an empty seat next to you. Today, as anyone knows, getting an empty seat next to you on a typical flight is a real rarity.

Simon London: Yeah, and airports are more crowded as well, though, aren’t they? There is a fact, isn’t there, around the number of airports, globally, which are operating at or beyond capacity—and it’s high, right?

Robin Riedel: They’re more crowded. Now, the way it really manifests itself is security. If you go back to the ’60s or ’70s, there was no security, and so it was a much more open space. Today, once you’re through security, the airport experience is generally pretty good. You have restaurants. You have retail shopping. You have lots of seating space. You have light terminals with lots of window space. Security tends to be the number-one pain point for passengers going through the experience.

Simon London: Yes, and I guess we cannot blame that on the airlines. That’s not something the airlines chose to put in place.

Alex Dichter: But you’re quite right about the crowding point. If you go to multiple airline terminals, particularly in hub markets today, during peak hours you’ll find that it can be difficult to move around. In an industry that grows at, depending on the market, 3 to 6 percent per year, it’s very clear that much of that infrastructure needs to be expanded and/or replaced and needs to be expanded or replaced quite quickly.

Simon London: Yeah. Just go back to legroom, which is always a topic of much debate.

Alex Dichter: Yep.

Simon London: It feels to me like legroom is probably less than it used to be. Again, am I just looking at the past through rose-tinted spectacles?

Alex Dichter: Here are the facts. Let’s go back to the ’70s. I think in the ’70s, the average pitch—this is a term that the industry uses for the number of inches or centimeters between one point on a seat and the exact same point on the seat behind it or in front of it—was about 34 inches. Today, if we looked at most network carriers, traditional airlines, it’s probably in the neighborhood of 31 inches. So that’s three inches fewer, which sounds like a lot. However, the seats are slimmer. A typical seat today is at least two inches slimmer than it was in the 1970s, so the amount of space available for your legs is not dramatically different.

Simon London: So we might have lost an inch over a few decades.

Alex Dichter: We might have lost an inch. I think we certainly lost some recline. I think fuller airplanes mean that we’re a little less socially comfortable reclining our seats, and that’s certainly had an impact. Let’s be clear: this [legroom] is also one of those things that people say they want, and yet, to the industry’s chagrin, there doesn’t seem to be an enormous amount of evidence that people are willing to pay for it or shift their preferences because of it.

Simon London: So as consumers, we do not vote with our feet or our knees.

Alex Dichter: Unfortunately, that is true. I think the happy equilibrium we’re coming to is [that] many airlines are offering extra-legroom seats. There are different names for these. There’s, of course, premium economy, which is sold as a separate class. In many cases, for anywhere from $20 to $100, you can buy an extra-legroom seat, which has quite a bit of additional legroom. So those who care can buy, and those who care less don’t.

Simon London: Yeah. So the golden age of air travel [was] maybe not quite as true as we’d like to remember. Let’s go back to this little golden period we’ve [now] got of industry economics, though. Will it continue?

Alex Dichter: The dynamics that have always led to unprofitability in this industry are fundamentally still there. This is still an industry that orders lots of airplanes when it’s doing well. Those airplanes show up two to three years later, typically all at the same time. And that drives quite a bit of cyclicality.

Simon London: The cyclicality of capacity planning and the fact that every airline seems to order in unison, and then you get excess capacity, is just a fundamental problem.

Alex Dichter: Sure. Fundamental problem. The fact [is] that capacity is perishable—meaning when a seat leaves the gate, it’s worth nothing. The marginal cost to put one more passenger on the airplane is very low, and that leads to a very strong incentive, and a rational one, to price below full cost when times are tough. In an industry where prices are relatively transparent, others respond, and you end up in a bit of a spiral.

Simon London: Yeah. Yeah.

Alex Dichter: I don’t think any of that has fundamentally changed.

Robin Riedel: I would maybe add that there are a few new storm clouds on the horizon here for the industry. One of the bigger ones has got to be the question of sustainability. I think we’re hearing lots of public outcry about the amount of carbon that aviation puts in the air. If you look at other emissions, it’s even higher than that. There’s a real question about whether demand is going to change because of environmental concerns.

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Simon London: Yes. There’s the word flygskam ; I’m probably butchering that. We’ll get letters from Sweden! This came up just in the last year or so and seems to have entered popular culture. Is this actually a real topic of conversation—again, at the capacity-planning level? When people are looking at the demand curve and thinking about orders in airlines, are they taking this into account?

Robin Riedel: They’re starting to. I think this is a relatively new trend. We’re seeing this over the last six months or so, but our surveys have shown that about one-third of the passengers are seriously considering flying less as a result of environmental concerns, which is something we haven’t seen before at this number.

We do see [this] in certain markets. In Scandinavia, we see pockets of demand falling off, especially domestic travel or short-term travel, as a result of this. We’re seeing lots and lots of airlines starting to come out with very bold messages around what they want to do. Right now, a lot of this is focused on how do we increase fuel efficiency with our flying? How do we think about alternative fuels—certifying them and getting them on board? How do we think about offsets?

But to be honest, there’s a lot more to be done, and there’s a real challenge for the industry coming up. Because of the density of power that sits in fuel, it’s very hard to go to other sources. Going to electric is incredibly hard for longer flights, if not physically impossible at this point.

Simon London: Just because of the density of batteries per unit of energy that they contain?

Robin Riedel: That’s exactly right. The problem is, other industries can go with alternatives. We’re going to look at electric cars and we’re going to see that ramp up. Even though aviation might be 2 percent, 2.5 percent, of carbon emissions today, aviation is rapidly growing compared to other modes and other polluters and doesn’t have as many alternatives. As the other modes put alternatives in, we will see the [carbon-emissions] number of aviation come up quite a bit. It’s not crazy to say ten years from now, aviation could be at 10 percent.

Simon London: It’s currently at this interesting data point. Currently, around 2 percent, 2.5 percent, of global carbon emissions are [from] aviation, and probably, on trends, that will rise. How far it will rise, we don’t know, but it could rise significantly.

Robin Riedel: That’s right.

Simon London: Presumably, the industry is heavily incented to get more fuel efficient because jet fuel is a significant portion of costs. What’s the record of the industry so far? Beyond the cleaner-fuel alternatives or biofuels, what’s the industry doing to try and reduce it?

Alex Dichter: It’s something that’s on everyone’s mind. I think even if you weren’t concerned about carbon, to your point, fuel is a large expense item, and everyone’s looking to use less of it. Certainly, for some airlines, that means investing in new aircraft types that are significantly more fuel efficient. Some of the new-generation aircraft are as much as 20 percent more efficient on a per-passenger basis.

Let’s be clear: those airplanes are expensive. If you look at most cases, it’s a clear business case, but it’s close—meaning you save a lot on operating costs, but you pay back quite a bit of that in capital costs for the privilege of having new aircraft. For some, that makes sense. For others, it makes less sense.

Robin Riedel: Maybe to add a few things to that, the record of the industry at reducing or increasing fuel efficiency has actually been quite good. On average, we’re seeing about a percent, 1.5 percent, of reduction per year. Every year.

The airlines are quite committed to that, to Alex’s point, because it saves them money. I think one of the big players that has the opportunity to do more is actually air-traffic control here, and this is in many cases government led. [We need] better ways to utilize the airspace, finding better ways to hand off between—for example, in Europe—between country-based air-traffic control and allowing aircraft to take more direct flights, staying at an altitude where they’re more fuel efficient for longer. That could make a big difference. I think there’s a lot of opportunity left to really see some improvement on the fuel efficiency.

Simon London: Yeah. To step back from that, even though consumers say they are concerned about the environmental impact of flying, we still expect the industry to be growing at GDP-plus for the next while. If it bends the demand curve, it’s going to be at the margin.

Alex Dichter: I think we do need to consider a scenario in which that changes. I think the fact is that a reasonably large portion of air travel today is discretionary. In Europe—I live in the UK—for a lot of people, the choice to go to Amsterdam or Spain for the weekend is an alternative to going to a football game and going to the pub, at not very different costs. It’s a way of spending your time. One of the airline CEOs in Europe says that his biggest competitor is the sofa, meaning that he’s really trying to get people to get out of their homes and decide to travel. And that creates demand. I think the notion of flygskam and, again, I’m sure I’m pronouncing it incorrectly …

Simon London: I think you did better than I did!

Alex Dichter: … is precisely to challenge people on that type of travel. I think if that mind-set becomes widespread, we could see a big change to demand. Businesses, too, while we as businesspeople think that much of our travel is essential, I think if we really looked at it with a sharp eye, we’d realize much of it could be replaced by videoconferencing and phone calls. I think that there is the possibility that we’ll see large changes in mind-sets toward travel, and that’s something that the industry needs to watch very closely.

Robin Riedel: Just to build on that, I think the same is true for cargo. If you look at air cargo today, a lot of it is perishable goods. Anywhere in the world you can get nonseasonal fruit and vegetables. You can get salmon from Chile and you can get flowers. You can get perishable goods from all over the world at any time. I think consumers will over time smarten up to that and say …

Simon London: … “what is the carbon footprint of my strawberries?”

Robin Riedel: Yeah. There you go.

Simon London: Alex, you mentioned a little earlier that the current-generation and next-generation aircraft are more fuel efficient. Without getting too nerdy, but I’m interested, how is that being achieved?

Alex Dichter: In the simplest form, much of that benefit is coming through an increase in what engine manufacturers refer to as the bypass ratio. That’s, effectively, the ratio of thrust that is created by the fan. That’s the big disc out in front of the engine that you see spinning. It’s effectively a propeller, versus the core of the engine.

The higher the bypass ratio, the more efficient the engine is, up to a point. It’s a very simple explanation of a very complicated topic. I think the issue is we’re up against a threshold where dramatic increases in bypass ratios are not likely, for two reasons. One is at some point the fan becomes so big that you can’t manage it geometrically. The second point is that the internal temperature of the engine goes up with higher bypass ratios. At some point, we run into the limits of the ability for materials to sustain those temperatures.

Simon London: So we hit a plateau of what you can get out of the technology.

Alex Dichter: At some point, physics wins. I think that the achievements of the engine manufacturers over the last 20 or 30 years have been remarkable. I think engineers do wonderful things and we’ll continue to see improvements. But I think the idea that we’ll at some point see a kerosene-driven, high-bypass-ratio turbofan engine that burns 50 percent less fuel than we see today, using the same basic concepts, strikes most of us as unlikely.

Robin Riedel: Then to build on that, I think the changes we would see in that next-generation aircraft will be new airframe designs. I think on the airframe side, we’re getting more aerodynamic wings. We’re building more aerodynamic fuselages overall, and we’re building lighter materials. There are a lot of carbon aircraft parts out there now.

Simon London: Yes. There are composites and things being built which are lighter than aluminum and so on.

Robin Riedel: That’s right, but we’re fundamentally still building the same kind of tube and wing designs that we’ve been building for the last 80, 90 years. The question is [that] to get to the next level of efficiency afterward, we’ll have to attack the design of the actual aircraft.

There are designs out there like blended wing bodies, which have significantly better lift performance and lower drag, that would achieve the next step change, but it’s not as easy as just taking an engine off, like we do today, and replacing it. As an industry where a new aircraft design will easily cost you more than $10 billion, something of that scale will probably cost you $30 billion, $40 billion. We haven’t gotten to the point yet to really invest in these new designs.

Simon London: Presumably, as an aircraft manufacturer, the big hairy bet that you have to make is when to take those kinds of more futuristic designs—next-generation or beyond-next-generation platforms—into production.

Alex Dichter: I think there are multiple considerations. I think one is you don’t want to kill the existing platform, which still has plenty of growth left in it. You’re trying to pay down that investment, which might be only five or ten years old. The second is you want to make those investments at points in which propulsion technology is ready for a step change.

Last but not least, there is something to be said for managing the number of unknown unknowns in a design. The good news about reusing existing design features is that they’re very well tested. We understand them. We understand how to make them safe or safer. We understand how to build them. The more unknowns there are, the more uncertainty you have in the development process that leads to delays. It leads to manufacturing problems. Eventually, the industry tends to get there, but it can be a bumpy road.

Robin Riedel: Notwithstanding what we said, there are some very good ideas on the horizon that are actually coming to fruition in the smaller-aircraft space. We’re looking at electric propulsion. The floatplane companies in Vancouver have committed to going fully electric on their smaller aircraft.

There we see a bunch of innovations coming out that are electric propulsion, battery driven. On the next horizon of range, you have a bunch of new designs that have distributive propulsion. Instead of having one or two big engines on the aircraft, you have dozens of small, little propellers across the wing or across the fuselage, which have all kinds of aerodynamic benefits. While we won’t see that any time soon on the large airliners that we travel around [on] most of the time, we will see this on the smaller, regional aircraft.

Simon London: So the innovation tends to be on the shorter haul, basically?

Alex Dichter: I wouldn’t say it has been a pattern that innovation occurs on the shorter haul. I think the point is that when it comes to electric aircraft, the ability to do something that’s economically useful on short-haul aircraft today is in sight in a way that it is not for long-range aircraft. We’re not far away from being able to pack enough energy into a battery to be able to carry ten passengers 20 or 30 kilometers. We’re quite some way away from being able to carry 300 passengers 10,000 kilometers.

Simon London: Just talk a little bit about the air-taxi concept, which sounds incredibly futuristic. What do you think? Is it realistic?

Robin Riedel: It’s a space I’m tremendously excited about. Right now, we track more than 150 different manufacturers working on prototypes and business models around these vehicles.

Simon London: One hundred and fifty?

Robin Riedel: More than 150 just from the manufacturing-the-vehicle side. If you think of the whole ecosystem, it’s many, many more than that. You will have to recharge these vehicles. You will need infrastructure to land them. You need air-traffic control when you think about the lower airspace and lots of vehicles; it’s something that today doesn’t exist.

All of that is being spun up right now. There are dozens of companies that have working prototypes that fly with and without passengers, with and without pilots, today and are proving that technology-wise, we’re actually there.

Now, at the same [time], there are a lot of unlocks that need to happen to get there. Air-traffic control is one I mentioned. The thought that we will have dozens of these [air taxis] zipping through a city—it’s a problem that, technically maybe, we’re close to solving or have solved.

Simon London: Yes, it’s both exciting and scary.

Robin Riedel: It is both exciting and scary. Now, public perception is another issue. I think in the Western world, our surveys suggest that people are not quite ready to get into an autonomous plastic bowl with rotors on it and fly around a city, or there’s some skepticism around it. Now, in some of the emerging markets, there’s less of a concern there.

Simon London: You guys are both pilots. Will these things be pilotless or not? Because, presumably, the weight of the pilot, the economics of the pilot, fundamentally changes the game.

Robin Riedel: Let me give you a couple of the data points here. By adding a pilot, we’re about doubling the cost of flying on these vehicles. That’s because you have to pay for the pilot, for one, which isn’t necessarily cheap, especially if you only share the cost over a couple of passengers, versus a couple of hundred on big aircraft. Secondly, you’re designing the aircraft for the pilot to be in there. If you add an extra seat, that’s extra weight, so you’re roughly doubling the cost of the trip.

I think, secondly, it’s an interesting question of where these pilots will come from and how we incentivize them. Our forecasts show that by 2027, 2030, if this industry takes off, we’ll need about 50,000 pilots just for this urban air-mobility space. The value proposition for them is an interesting one because you’re telling them, “Listen. We want you to fly these,” but at the same time, as an industry, our number-one priority is to …

Simon London: … to get rid of you!

Robin Riedel: To get rid of you. To automate this, so that we can bring down the cost. If you think about the NPV [net present value] of a pilot’s career, you invest about $100,000 up front to get your pilot’s license. You spend two years of your life doing that. You have to recoup that afterward. If you only think about a five- or ten-year career until you get automated away, it’s a hard pitch to make. It’s a very interesting question for the industry how to resolve it.

Alex Dichter: The other thing I’d say is that we are very close to being able to master the technology that’s required for 100 percent–safe autonomous flight. Ninety-nine-point-something percent of the time, everything goes flawlessly.

That said, you see in your day-to-day life that technology fails, whether that’s having to reboot your computer or your phone. This happens on airplanes today—sometimes you need to reboot a system and have human intervention. Not surprisingly, the tolerance for technology failures in unmanned flight will be zero. The question in a lot of people’s minds is, “All right. If we’re 99-point-something percent of the way there, how far are we from 100?” That could be very close, and it could be very, very far.

Simon London: This is the same discussion that happens with autonomous vehicles. To what standard do we hold the systems? Do we hold them to the standard of perfection, or do we hold them to a human standard, which is a long way from even 99.99 percent?

Robin Riedel: You raise an interesting point there because the human standard is also not 100 percent. In a lot of cases, you would argue the human introduces a certain amount of risk as well because there’s human failure and human error. I think a lot of it is a public-perception issue, and how do we deal with the fact that we’re expecting 100 percent safety from aviation but yet we’re totally fine getting in a car and taking a significant risk on our way to the airport in the car.

Simon London: It’s cultural, societal, but also regulatory, and regulators will respond to politicians, who respond to societies. What about supersonic? Is there a future? Is it going to come back?

Alex Dichter: Many people my age had a chance to fly on Concorde when it was operating, and it was a wonderful experience. There are a couple of companies that have very credible paths, from a technology standpoint, to reintroduce supersonic aircraft—in some cases, to the business and corporate market.

That said, I do think that there are some real challenges. First and foremost, [supersonic aircraft] will not be more fuel efficient. I think that in a world where we become very focused on carbon footprints, at an individual as well as a collective level, that may impede the success of these models.

I think, second, there is a time-channel problem with supersonic flight that I think many people underestimate. What I mean by that is, nobody wants to arrive at 2:00 in the morning and nobody wants to leave at 2:00 in the morning. When you look at the rational departure and arrival time slots in many city pairs, supersonic does wonderful things for you in some city pairs and does nothing for you in others.

Concorde, for instance, was quite popular between London or Paris and New York, and it was less popular in the other direction because it left in the morning and arrived in the early evening, so you spent a day on an airplane. Whereas the alternative would be to spend a full day in New York, go to sleep in a first-class seat or a business-class seat—because if you were on Concorde, that’s probably your alternative—wake up in Europe, and have a productive day on the other end. That said, I suspect we will see some activity in this space at small scale.

Simon London: Let’s just finish with some tips. You are both pilots and frequent travelers. I’m sure you get asked this at dinner parties, so here’s the dinner-party question: “I fly. What should I do? What should I not do?”

Alex Dichter: My simple answer is, unless you really have to, don’t eat on planes. Nothing against the food. It’s fine. But in many cases, the flight is relatively short. If you look at the East Coast of the US to Europe, you have, at best, six and a half hours in the air. You have a big time-zone change ahead of you. Getting even a few hours’ sleep is really helpful, and an hour and a half worth of dinner, whether you’re in economy or business [class], takes away a significant portion of your sleeping time. Not to mention the fact that the airplane is a pressurized environment. Without getting into overly biotechnical details, your body doesn’t do a particularly good job of digesting food at altitude.

Simon London: Yeah. So rest, basically. Put your head down. Get some rest. Don’t eat. Robin, any tips?

Robin Riedel: Well, I still eat on airplanes, so I don’t quite agree [with Alex] on that one. I think getting smart on a stress-free way through the airport and through the environment is really what I spend my time thinking about, and that’s the tip I give people. Think about which security checkpoint you use. Is there a way for you to get faster through that by registering for a program or by being a frequent flyer? [Also,] understanding where the gate layout is, what are the right places to refresh or [where] the washrooms [are] in the area, et cetera.

Simon London: So a little bit of preplanning of the airport experience.

Robin Riedel: A little bit of preplanning of the airport experience. Absolutely. I think on the aircraft itself, I would argue get a window seat if you can, because you can lean against the window. People always argue that the person who’s in the aisle seat has all the power because they can get up whenever they want. Well, the reality is, if you’re in the window seat, you can also get up whenever you want, and you can actually make the other people get up at the same time. That whole aisle argument for me doesn’t count. For me, it’s a window seat.

Alex Dichter: One other tip that might surprise you is pack lightly, as that not only simplifies your life and makes dragging bags through the airport simpler but also reduces your carbon footprint. If you choose not to fly, at least in the short term that seat will probably be filled by someone else and, certainly, the plane will go. Every kilogram that you remove from your personal luggage reduces the fuel burn for the aircraft. I feel good about that. It also makes my life simpler.

Robin Riedel: One other [tip] I would add is bring a pillow. Even on shorter flights, being able to rest your head on something other than just the headrest is nice. I always carry a small pillow with me. I carry a pair of somewhat nicer eyeshades than you are given for free. Because that just makes a big difference to me—to be able to shut out the light and get a little bit of quiet time.

Alex Dichter: Another key one for me is knowing when not to sleep. The big challenge of long-haul travel, of course, is managing jet lag. That is as much a question of learning how to sleep as it is [of] knowing when not to sleep. A perfect example would be [that] a typical flight from the East Coast of the United States to Asia would leave in the middle of the day—let’s say noon—and arrive in Asia late in the afternoon, which, by the way, would be early in the morning on your body time.

If I look around the airplane, in most cases I would see people asleep for the last five hours of that flight. I know from experience that those people will end up tossing and turning in their hotel bed that night, unable to go to sleep again. That sets a pattern, throughout the subsequent days, of being groggy in the day, probably having to resort to taking a nap, and not being able to sleep at night. Keeping yourself awake so that you can shock yourself into the next time zone is an important discipline in managing jet lag.

Be friendly to airport and airline employees. There are a lot of things that go wrong in the airline industry, and the vast majority of them are not the fault of the flight attendant or gate agent that you are speaking to. Taking the time to smile and acknowledge that it’s not their fault, and [for them to] have a little human contact, makes their day better, makes your day better, and, again, creates that positive loop that we were talking about. I had a flight attendant come up to me not long ago to thank me for taking my headsets off of my head when she came to ask me a question. You would think that would be a common courtesy; it’s something I ask my kids to do but, apparently, that’s not something that’s often done. Those little things make a difference.

Simon London: We are out of time for today. Robin, Alex, thank you so much for joining and that was fascinating.

Alex Dichter: Great.

Robin Riedel: Thank you for the time.

Alex Dichter: We’ll see you all in an airport someplace.

Simon London: Yeah. Right. And, as always, thanks to you, our listeners, for tuning in to this episode of the McKinsey Podcast . Please do jet over to McKinsey.com to find more research on aviation, transportation, sustainability, and more. Alternatively, download the excellent McKinsey Insights app, which is available for Apple and Android devices.

Alex Dichter is a senior partner in McKinsey’s London office. Robin Riedel is a partner in the San Francisco office. Simon London, a member of McKinsey Publishing, is based in the Silicon Valley office.

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Greener air travel will depend on these emerging technologies

Electric engines, alternative fuels, and better navigation could reduce emissions—and mitigate the impacts of a global return to the skies.

The sky over Cologne, Germany, is crisscrossed by condensation trails from airplanes. Because the pollutants in these so-called “contrails” contribute to climate change, researchers are studying ways to eliminate them—one of several ongoing efforts to make flying more sustainable.

Here’s a word you may have overlooked in 2020: flygskam, a Swedish term for the feeling of being ashamed to fly. In a year that saw a 66 percent decrease in flights, compared to 2019, you might think that flygskam has flown the coop.

But with a recent uptick in air traffic—and the anticipation of travel’s rebound thanks to COVID-19 vaccines —flygskam is taking flight again. The term originated in 2017 as part of a campaign to change how we fly, from the frequency of our flights to the technology of our aircraft. The goal: to mitigate the carbon dioxide emissions that experts think may triple by 2050 .

Aviation accounts for a relatively small portion of global emissions—2.5 percent. While bigger culprits, such as electricity and agriculture, account for greater emissions, they also benefit billions of people. Airline emissions, in contrast, come mostly from rich travelers in the richest countries: business class passengers produce six times as much carbon as those in economy class, and one percent of the most frequent fliers are responsible for half of all aviation’s carbon emissions.

Will the pandemic -caused travel slowdown be enough to shake up aviation and produce lasting benefits for the environment? In 2020, the drop in air traffic likely reduced carbon emissions by several hundred million tons . Some are calling to make those reductions permanent by eliminating contrails, using new fuels, improving navigation, and more. With climate change reaching a point of no return as early as 2035 , action will need to happen quickly.

( Wondering what you can do? Here are 12 ways to travel sustainably in the new year .)

Of course, flying less would have an even bigger impact, and there are calls for travelers to fly only once a year , give up flying for a year , and attend conferences virtually . Still, air travel is here to stay, so the cleaner the better. Here are some of the ways flying could clean up its act in the years to come.

Curtailing the contrails

Aviation emits more than carbon dioxide; it also produces water vapor, aerosols, and nitrogen oxides. These pollutants absorb more incoming energy than what is radiated back to space, causing Earth’s atmosphere to warm. This means aviation’s impact on warming might be an even bigger share than its carbon footprint.

The turbine engines of commercial aircraft, like this one at a maintenance facility in Singapore, rely on kerosene-based propellants. Companies are experimenting with biofuels and synthetic fuels that can reduce carbon dioxide emmissions.

An Airbus A300-600R makes its final approach before landing. The company plans to have a hydrogen-fueled plane in service by 2035.

The worst of the non-carbon impacts are from contrails, short for condensation trails: the line-shaped clouds that form from a plane’s engine exhaust. A small number of flights are responsible for most contrails. This is because contrails form only in narrow atmospheric bands where the weather is cold and humid enough.

Avoiding those zones could make a big difference in limiting aviation’s non-carbon pollution. One research paper modeling Japan’s airspace found that modifying a small number of flight routes to skip these areas could reduce contrails’ effects on the climate by 59 percent. The change would be as little as 2,000 feet above or below these regions. While flying a plane higher or lower can reduce its efficiency and require more jet fuel, the paper found that limiting contrails would still offset any additional carbon emissions.

“There is a growing realization that the impact of contrails is a really significant component of aviation’s climate impact,” says Marc Stettler, one of the paper’s authors and a lecturer on transport and the environment at Imperial College London .

The spots where contrails can form change from day to day, so airlines need accurate, multi-day weather forecasts to avoid them. In the future, pilots could report contrails, much like they now do with turbulence, so other planes could adjust their flight paths.

The EU’s aviation authority, EUROCONTROL, starting preparing last year to conduct trials on a contrail avoidance project . Stettler and his colleagues plan to continue research on how to go about implementing changes that could reduce contrails.

“This is the faster way that aviation can reduce its climate impact,” he says.

Related: Stunning views from an airplane window

Harnessing alternative fuels

Commercial airplanes rely on kerosene-based propellant, but companies are experimenting with turning biomasses, such as vegetable oil and even used diapers , into jet fuels. Some research suggests these biofuels could cut carbon pollution from airplanes by upwards of 60 percent . But all biofuels are not created equal.

Those that could be processed into food are unsustainable because of the planet’s growing population, which needs crops for calories. Used cooking oil and pulp leftover from agriculture or logging are expensive and not produced at a scale large enough to make a meaningful difference. But this doesn’t mean that other sustainable aviation fuels won’t be developed.

( How clean is the air on planes? Cleaner than you may think .)

“You hear that aviation is a hard sector to decarbonize,” says Andrew Murphy, the aviation director at Transport and Environment , a European nongovernmental organization. “That is only half the story. The other half is we haven’t tried.”

More-promising areas include e-fuels, or “synthetic fuels,” which don’t require engines to be reengineered. To make e-fuels, electricity—hopefully renewable—is used to split water into hydrogen and oxygen. The hydrogen is then combined with carbon dioxide to make jet fuel. KLM recently conducted its first flight powered by synthetic fuel.

Another effort entails pulling carbon out of the atmosphere and using it as an ingredient in fuel. Although this technology is still in early stages, that doesn’t mean it has to be far off.

“The pandemic has shown us new technology can be sped up if we want it to,” Murphy says.

Going electric or hybrid

Cars aren’t the only conveyance undergoing electric innovation: one count found a hundred electric-powered aircraft projects in the works.

The first electric flights will be in small planes with a range limited to a few hundred miles. Norway , a country with numerous islands and mountainous terrain calling for puddle jumpers, has promised that all of its short-haul flights will be on electric aircraft by 2040 . Underserved areas could one day get new routes flown exclusively by electric planes.

“A huge fleet of these could radically change local transportation systems,” says Ron Steenblik, former director of the International Institute for Sustainable Development ’s Global Subsidies Initiative.

An airplane descends as the sun rises on Mexico City. Artificial intelligence is being used in efforts to improve flight navigation and lessen delays that cause planes to sit on the tarmac or circle the airport.

Going farther or flying bigger planes with electrification isn’t on the near-term horizon. But some companies are exploring a hybrid of electricity and hydrogen, which could extend ranges. Boeing and others are also looking at hydrogen as a means of propulsion even without electrification. Airbus recently revealed three different hydrogen planes with plans to have one or something like it in service by 2035.

“We don’t want to just make it technically feasible,” says Glenn Llewellyn, vice president of Airbus’s Zero-Emission Aircraft project. “We want to make it economically viable.”

The Hindenburg disaster in 1937 ended the first hydrogen era. The aviation industry tried and dropped a hydrogen effort again in 2010 after finding it too expensive. But Llewellyn points out that hydrogen has been improved by other industries, such as automobile and space, proving its safety, innovating on its uses, and bringing down its costs.

“The ecosystem is evolving in a much different way than 10 years ago,” Llewellyn says. “We have a better starting point.”

Giving navigation an upgrade

Airlines have used computers to help optimize routing and planning for decades, but they’re now putting artificial intelligence (AI) to work in finding new ways to reduce jet fuel needs.

Air France, Norwegian, and Malaysia Airlines are already using technology called Sky Breathe that relies on big data and AI to analyze billions of records from flights in an effort to find ways to save fuel. The company behind Sky Breathe says it has saved its customers more than $150 million in 2019 and reduced CO2 emissions by 590,000 tons.

The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is midway through a multiyear upgrade called NextGen , which will be a series of interconnected systems to improve how air traffic control sees, navigates, and communicates. The FAA says the technology will make it possible to schedule tighter landings and takeoffs and decrease delays that leave planes sitting on the tarmac or circling the airport.

“AI is really good at looking at patterns,” says Ashish Kapoor, an AI researcher at Microsoft who works on aviation projects. “We have years of experience of flying planes, so we have a lot of data out there.”

There will be more data as planes get kitted out in sensors, which will produce additional insights into improvements. All that data means that the next stage of aviation could look different. Algorithms could develop new plane designs and come up with flight plans, taking into account speed, comfort, and emissions.

“We don’t have to evolve like aviation has done the last hundred years,” Kapoor says.

But for this to happen, more than technology has to evolve; countries will need to change legislation, and airlines will need to fund expensive research. It will take incentives to encourage the aviation industry to become sustainable. Janice Lao-Noche, an environmental scientist and development economist, says it’s going to take a lot of flygskam and maybe the pain of climate change disrupting more flights for all the innovations to take off.

“I don’t think it’s futile,” Lao-Noche says. “[But] this is going to be, no pun intended, a bumpy ride for the aviation industry.”

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After a Rocky Start to the Year, Experts Predict What’s Next for Air Travel in 2024

There will be more fliers and (hopefully) fewer delays and cancellations. but other aspects of air travel are less clear..

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What is known and what are the unknowns for 2024? We asked insiders.

Photo by Justin Lim/Unsplash

In 2024, more of us, apparently, are resolving to take more trips by air. Or at least that was how it was looking before two back-to-back in-flight incidents kicked off the start of the year: the Japan Airlines airplane that burst into flames after a runway collision, and the Alaska Airlines plug door blowing out that led to the global grounding of Boeing 737-9 Max planes.

This year, despite some nervousness fliers may be feeling in the aftermath of said incidents, air travel volume is expected to reach “an historic high,” with 4.7 billion air passengers expected worldwide, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). That exceeds not just 2023’s total of 4.4 billion, but also the pre-pandemic 2019 total of 4.5 billion.

Airlines have “come roaring back to pre-pandemic levels of connectivity,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general, adding that “the speed of the recovery has been extraordinary.” Looking ahead, 44 percent of those polled in a recent IATA consumer survey say that they will travel more in the next 12 months than in the previous 12 months.

In the United States, the story is similar, said Helane Becker, an airline analyst with investment bank TD Cowen, who noted that passenger volume at Transportation Security Administration (TSA) checkpoints was up 11.6 percent in 2023, with an average of 2.3 million travelers daily—and that will rise at least 5 percent in 2024. Unless TSA adds more screeners, that could lead to longer airport lines. In peak periods “we will regularly see days when 3 million people travel through airports,” Becker said.

How will the recent safety scares affect operations? What does the higher number of travelers mean for airfares this year? And will we see additional operational struggles like the snafus that roiled holiday travel a little more than a year ago? We asked experts to weigh in. Here are their predictions for what flying will be like in 2024.

Air travel safety is being called into question amid Boeing 737-9 Max groundings

After a series of close calls at airports last year, air safety standards were already under the microscope in 2023. But when the new year began with two serious accidents, the Boeing 737-9 Max scare , which followed a crash at Tokyo’s Haneda Airport , the issue became a front-page story.

After immediately grounding 171 Boeing 737-9 Max planes in the United States and in countries with direct flights to the U.S., the FAA on January 12 said that it would be increasing its oversight of Boeing production and manufacturing. The move came one day after the FAA said that it had “formally notified Boeing that the FAA has launched an investigation into the company as a result of last Friday’s incident on a Boeing Model 737-9 MAX in which the aircraft lost a passenger door plug while in flight.”

It’s unclear how long it will be before the 737-9 Max planes can return to service. Last week, United reported that it had found loose bolts on Boeing 737-9 Max airplanes during fleet inspections, furthering concerns.

The Alaska plane is not the same version of the 737 as the Max 8, which had two fatal crashes that prompted a nearly two-year worldwide grounding of the Max series starting in 2019. But given that it is part of the same aircraft family, the incident is raising some questions among travelers about its overall safety record.

“The outcome could have been a lot worse” if the Alaska aircraft had been at cruising altitude (about 34,000 feet), said John Goglia, a former member of the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) and an aviation safety consultant.

The head of NTSB, Jennifer Homendy, said at a news conference following the Alaska Airlines incident that the agency is going to pore over maintenance and safety records to determine the cause of the accident, which could take some time. But she also reassured the traveling public that air travel is safe.

“We have the safest aviation system in the world,” she said, adding that the United States “sets the standard for air safety” globally.

This issue—and the concerns it has sparked—isn’t going away anytime soon, and we can expect air travel safety to be top of mind for travelers and the industry for weeks and possibly months to come.

Airlines will fix operational woes—or face the consequences

No airline has gotten got a bigger black eye over flight snafus lately than Southwest—which, despite its mega-airline size, was tripped up in late 2022 during a weather-related meltdown by its antiquated technology, including a woefully outdated crew-scheduling system. The airline paid dearly for the mess, and not just in damage to its reputation; last month, the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) socked it with a record $140 million fine .

But the implications for fliers go well beyond one airline: $90 million of the fine will go directly into a fund to compensate passengers who are delayed more than three hours, and industry watchers fully expect this three-hour rule will take effect across the industry. Consumer advocates say this signals a tougher stand on airline service issues that are clearly under the carrier’s control, including inadequate staffing to meet published schedules.

As Southwest CEO Bob Jordan told the Wings Club in New York last month (just as the DOT news was about to break), the airline has invested more than $1 billion in new systems that will not only help get crews to where they need to be but also enable the airline to better manage flights in bad weather. “Going forward, this is about running a great operation, and we will not stop working on it until we get it done,” Jordan said.

“The message is, if you don’t invest in the product, the consequences can be devastating,” said William McGee, senior fellow for aviation and travel at the American Economic Liberties Project. He predicts that the current leadership at DOT, “the most pro-consumer in U.S. history,” will be even more active on air passenger rights in 2024.

As part of that effort, DOT has signaled it will probe airline loyalty plans for evidence of “unfair and deceptive” practices, in response to a rise in complaints about changes in the award levels required to redeem tickets, among other things.

Don’t count on (much, if any) airfare relief

In 2023, as leisure travel rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, consumers got sticker shock as fares rose well above the rate of inflation—in some markets by as much as 15 to 20 percent—mainly because capacity was still down due to a lag in aircraft deliveries.

But heading into 2024, demand is still outpacing the number of available seats, and according to some experts, that situation may continue well into the year.

“Airfares are probably going to be higher [in 2024] because it simply comes down to supply and demand,” said Michael Derchin, a long-time Wall Street airline analyst who pens the newsletter Heard in the Hangar.

“Supply is tight and demand is high, and supply is tight for reasons that are totally out of the control of the airlines,” he said. And major aircraft manufacturers continue to have supply chain problems.

In addition, while most U.S. airlines are in the black, their costs are going up. Fuel prices have stabilized recently, but “the airlines’ single biggest cost by far is labor, accounting for about 40 percent of total expenses, and this year there’s been a significant increase in wages” thanks to airline unions’ success in bargaining for better pay and benefits, Derchin said.

The main takeaway: If you see a good flight deal, grab it. Prices aren’t likely to descend.

Hidden and ancillary fees don’t appear to be going away

Logic would dictate that if people are paying higher-than-expected prices, they should expect to get more for their money. Right? Not so fast, said Henry Harteveldt, travel industry analyst and co-founder of Atmosphere Research.

Ancillary fees, such as baggage fees and additional costs for seat selection and other services—which have drawn much criticism from Congress and the Biden administration—“are here to stay,” he said. He noted that Alaska Airlines is raising the price of checking a bag from $30 to $35 . “That has not increased in a while, and other airlines will follow suit,” he said.

Expanded international service

On the bright side, there will likely be more flight choices to destinations abroad in 2024. “Major airlines are adding international flights with a focus on restoring seasonal capacity and adding new flights to the Pacific region,” said TD Cowen’s Becker. She also cited what might be described as the Taylor Swift effect: major events that stimulate a lot of airline traffic. Watch for flights to fill up to the Paris Olympics this summer, and to destinations on the superstar’s international tour this year.

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Here’s how air travel could look in the year 2030

A vision of the future of air travel has been set out by the UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) agency.

Compiled by leading experts from industry, academia and government, the Future Flight Vision and Roadmap sets out how zero emission air travel could be common within a decade.

UKRI’s future flight deputy challenge director Simon Masters commented: “Achieving accessible, safe, sustainable transport will be a key element in the fight against climate change. That’s why in the year of COP26, UKRI is setting out what it thinks air travel should look like in 2030.

“Some of the concepts in this roadmap might seem a little further away than 2030, but the future is closer than you think. We’re already seeing some these ideas put into practice, with the UK’s first vertical take-off airport months from opening and a hybrid air travel trial taking place in Scotland at this very moment.”

One of the key elements of the roadmap is the use of hydrogen or electrically powered aircraft to provide short journeys for up to 10 people. These vertical-take-off air taxis would eliminate carbon emissions, ease congestion in UK cities and reduce journey times for travellers.

The same is true of the increased use of drones by emergency services and for delivering goods. These will provide rapid and convenient access to everyday goods and services, while also supporting emergency services in undertaking complex inspections and operations.

Also in the roadmap are sustainably powered small aircraft to provide short regional flights, providing transportation between towns and cities and serving more remote communities. These would then link in with other transport modes within a city, allowing for a seamless, end to end travel experience.

The publication of the roadmap comes as aviation company Ampaire launches a week of hybrid electric light aircraft flight trials. The company, which is part of the UKRI-funded Sustainable Aviation Test Environment (SATE) project, recently undertook a demonstration flight where one of its hybrid electric EEL aircraft completed a 30-minute journey from Kirkwall in the Orkney Isles to Wick airport in the North of Scotland.

in Coventry as part of its 2021 City of Culture programme the Air-One project, led by Urban-Air Port and supported by Coventry City Council is working on setting up the world’s smallest airport.

Specifically designed to support electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft this pop-up airport can be deployed in days, in an area 60% smaller than a standard helipad and with minimal impact on the environment.

www.ukri.org

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'Flying feels different': Here's how air travel has changed recently

If you haven't flown in a while, fasten your seat belts. I've got good news – and bad news.

You've probably already heard the bad news because it travels faster than the speed of sound. Airfares are up. So are luggage fees. And we seem to have a problem with in-flight violence again. 

But there's more to the story, and if you're an occasional air traveler, you'll want to get the big picture. You might be surprised by what you find.

Check out   Elliott Confidential , the newsletter the travel industry doesn't want you to read. Each issue is filled with breaking news, deep insights, and exclusive strategies for becoming a better traveler. But don't tell anyone!

First, the bad news about air travel in 2024

Some of the changes have not been for the better. For example:

• Airfares are climbing. Cheap pandemic airfares are history. Average domestic round-trip fares fell to a low of $186 in May 2020 . But they were back up to $261 by the beginning of this year – and they continue to climb.
• Checked-baggage fees are soaring. All of the major airlines have recently raised their baggage fees. On domestic flights, a checked bag may cost as much as $35 (more if you wait until the last minute or your bag is overweight). 
• Air rage is back. In-flight air rage hit record highs in 2021, mostly because of masking requirements. But the number of violent in-flight incidents remains high – this time, a combination of fuller flights and a continuing decline of civility. We're on track to exceed 2020's unruly-passenger incidents.

But don't despair. The air travel experience is changing in small ways – and, potentially, in big ways.

What's it like to fly now?

Let's start with the air travel experience itself. Flights are fuller and space is tighter than ever. In fact, if you're flying somewhere this spring or summer, you should congratulate yourself. You're probably part of the busiest year in the history of air travel.

"Air travel has rebounded," said Jason Block, CEO of WorldVia Travel Group . That puts a squeeze on regular passengers. If you've booked a no-frills economy ticket, you may face a higher risk of being bumped from your flight. So if you have a little extra money, Block suggests buying a more flexible ticket. You're still not bump-proof, but at least you'll move up the list.

▶ Smile for the TSA . The passenger screening experience is different but not necessarily better. The Transportation Security Administration has new scanners that take your picture to verify your identity. New technology might allow you to keep all your belongings in your bag and speed up screening – "might" being the operative word. 

"The process is more inconsistent than ever," said Andy Abramson, a frequent traveler and a communications consultant from Las Vegas. "Procedures change from airport to airport. In some cases, all you need is your boarding pass. In others, you need your ID, and in others, nothing but your facial scan."

Air travel smells worse than ever. Here's how to fix it.

Pay less to fly: New strategies for finding cheap airfares now

Speaking of technology, many air travelers have raved about new onboard Wi-Fi capabilities. Airlines like Air New Zealand, Emirates and JetBlue include the price of Wi-Fi in their tickets, and the connections have just gotten better since the pandemic. 

▶ Your face is your boarding pass . The TSA isn't the only one using facial scans. Some U.S. airlines have started using facial scans instead of boarding passes. It's a bit of an adjustment for passengers. 

"I stood awkwardly in front of a camera, feeling like a contestant in a dystopian game show," said Chris McGuire, a real estate broker from Birmingham, Ala.

A few months ago, Frankfurt became the first airport in Europe to fully adopt facial recognition . Other airports, including Tokyo and Dubai, also have face-scanning technology. If you haven't flown in a while, you may not have to fumble for your boarding pass before you get on the plane. 

I've used face-scanning technology on many occasions, and it usually works, but it can be slow. Getting through customs in Santiago, Chile, took a while, and the agent kept apologizing for the technology. So don't forget to pack your patience.

▶ No more ticket change fees . Airline ticket change fees disappeared during the pandemic on U.S. airlines. So if you have to change your flight, you won't have to pay a $250 fee on top of any fare difference.

"That's one of the most significant changes," said frequent air traveler Bob Bacheler, managing director of Flying Angels , a medical transport service. "Airlines introduced more flexible booking and cancellation policies, allowing passengers to change or cancel flights without heavy penalties."

Bacheler believes the fees will return eventually, and he's right. If they do, airlines will call them something else – maybe a "convenience" fee?

▶ You may board your flight differently . "Some airlines are implementing new boarding procedures," said Andy Palacios, vice president of growth and strategic partnerships for App in the Air . The most significant is United Airlines, which last fall began boarding economy passengers with window seats before those with middle and aisle seats.

Palacios recommends avoiding the general boarding mayhem by getting a credit card or earning elite status. Anything that gets you into the first boarding group can save you from having to gate-check your carry-on or just getting stuck in a crowd.

▶ You have new rights, too . If something goes wrong on your flight, you may find that your airline will do more for you. That's because the Department of Transportation, which regulates airlines, has been applying steady pressure on domestic airlines to improve customer service. (After all, taxpayers bailed out the airlines during the pandemic.)

Airlines now offer guaranteed meals, accommodations and ground transportation to and from a hotel when they're at fault for a cancellation. (You can find out about all your rights on the Transportation Department's Fly Rights website.)

The federal government is working on carving out more rights for air travelers, dealing with everything from more straightforward and honest pricing to minimum seat size. But it's a work in progress.

Air travel may be about to get better. Here's what it means for your next flight.

Passengers want to get off the plane first. Here's how you can do it.

Flying 'feels different' now

Passengers say it feels as if something has shifted in air travel.

"Flying feels different," said Robert Khachatryan, a frequent flyer and founder of a freight forwarding service in La Crescenta, Calif. 

He's correct. It's not just that customers have a few new rights or that the technology is getting an upgrade – or even that boarding is a little different. 

There's a sense that something big lies just ahead. With people like Elon Musk teasing a Tesla that can fly and personal flying vehicles making headlines almost every day, there's a feeling that flying is about to evolve in a significant way.

Air travelers have become disenchanted with commercial air travel, with its high fares, fees, long lines and terrible customer service. And the relief may not come from new rules to protect the rights of air travelers but from a fundamental change in the way we fly. 

So if flying feels different to you now, just wait. You ain't seen nothing yet.

This is the first of a two-part series on the future of air travel. Next week: Flying cars. Yeah, we're going to go there.

Christopher Elliott  is an author, consumer advocate, and journalist. He founded  Elliott Advocacy , a nonprofit organization that helps solve consumer problems. He publishes  Elliott Confidential , a travel newsletter, and the  Elliott Report , a news site about customer service. If you need help with a consumer problem, you can  reach him here  or email him at  [email protected] .

To revisit this article, visit My Profile, then   View saved stories .

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How Pilots and Scientists Are Thinking About the Future of Air Travel

Released on 08/24/2023

[Pilot] Attention, passengers.

Please return to your seats and fasten your seatbelt.

[Narrator] You know what that likely means, turbulence.

And if you've been getting on a plane recently,

it feels like turbulence has been getting a lot worse.

[passengers screaming]

So what does this mean for the future of travel?

In a few decades time looks a lot more turbulent

with hundreds of percent more severe clear air turbulence

in those skies.

[Narrator] And how are pilots reacting

to more and more rough air?

So we slow down just a little bit

to reach that maneuvering air speed,

so that it doesn't get bounced around as much.

[gentle music]

[Narrator] First, we need to understand

just exactly what turbulence is.

Turbulence is a chaotic random motion

that occurs in all fluids.

It's around us all the time.

It's in your bathtub, it's in your cup of coffee,

and of course it's in the atmosphere.

[Narrator] There are a bunch

of different types of turbulence,

but in particular we're going to talk about CAT.

[cat meowing]

No, not that kind of cat, but Clear Air Turbulence.

CAT is the particular type of turbulence

that is getting worse because of climate change.

And since it involves clear air in the jet streams,

it cannot be detected by radar before a plane is in it.

Clear air turbulence is generated

by wind shear in the jet stream.

Anyone who's ever climbed a tall building,

for example, the Eiffel Tower, very calm at the bottom,

but the higher up you go, the windier it gets,

and that increase in wind speed with heights

is what's called wind shear.

When the wind shear is too strong,

the atmosphere simply can't contain that

and it breaks down into turbulence as a result.

[Narrator] There are different levels of turbulence.

You have light, moderate, severe, and extreme.

Severe turbulence is turbulence

in which the up and downward motions of the aircraft

will experience vertical accelerations that exceed 1G.

Around 5,000 aircraft annually encounter severe turbulence

in the US causing hundreds of injuries

to passengers and flight attendants.

This severe injury causing turbulence is rare,

but of course, multiply that by all the planes

that are in the skies at any given moment

and one of them will encounter that severe turbulence.

[Narrator] For pilots,

turbulence is about maintaining passenger comfort

and trying to figure out where turbulence

could potentially be and then circumnavigating it.

So the forces on an aircraft

are lift, weight, thrust, and drag,

and air is a fluid, it's keeping it airborne suspended

at in flight at all times,

and turbulence is like a minor disturbance

in the middle of it.

[Narrator] How is climate change making turbulence worse?

What our satellites can see is the three dimensional shape

and structure of the jet stream,

and they've been measuring that for at least four decades.

There's an amplification of the warming

in the tropical parts of the planet,

and that effect is increasing the north to south

temperature difference across the jet stream,

and that's driving stronger wind shear in the jet stream

which is generating more clear air turbulence.

So that's the link from temperatures

to winds shear to turbulence.

[Narrator] This is what turbulence looked like in 1979,

and this is what turbulence looked like in recent years.

We see the same pattern except that the hotspots

are even hotter today.

There's greater likelihood

of encountering clear air turbulence in those hotspots.

50 or 60% more turbulence in some regions.

[Narrator] And this is what turbulence could look like

if global warming continues.

What we are looking at here is supercomputer simulations

of the atmosphere.

Now the simulation on the left is our control simulation,

whereas the simulation on the right

is one in which we've increased the carbon dioxide

to describe what a future real world might look like

with a lot more turbulence in the skies that we fly through.

What we find is that there's a doubling,

or perhaps even a tripling,

of the amount of severe clear air turbulence

in the atmosphere.

So the future in a few decades time

looks a lot more turbulent with hundreds of percent

more severe clear air turbulence in those skies.

[Narrator] And where will those hotspots particularly be?

There's 55% more severe turbulence over the North Atlantic

than there was in the 1970s.

41% more over the US and similar figures around the world.

That's the the definitive evidence really

that clear air turbulence

has already started to get stronger.

[Narrator] So what does this mean for air travel,

in particular over areas like North America

and the North Atlantic?

We're certainly projecting a doubling or a tripling

in the amount of turbulence in a few decades time,

but that will just mean that we go

from 0.1% of the atmosphere having severe turbulence in it

to 0.2 or 0.3%,

and that's certainly not going to mean we're gonna have

to shut down parts of air space

and say there's too much turbulence.

I don't think that's on the cards really.

It's just a case of turbulence becoming more frequent,

and pilots needing to keep even closer tabs

than they already do on where the turbulence is

and trying to avoid it as best as they can.

[Narrator] For pilots, this means relying on programs

like WSI Pilotbrief and SkyPath to plan out flight routes.

[Andrea] You're looking at a god's eye view

of our route of flight.

The various hazards along the way

are those big green circles and then the red boxes.

If you look at the bottom half of the screen,

that's a vertical profile.

You'll see that toward the end,

if it stayed at 33,000 feet it would encounter

that big yellow and orange section of turbulence.

And that's why in this case,

this aircraft has chosen to climb all the way up

to 39,000 feet to try to avoid it.

[Narrator] Pilots also use SkyPath,

which crowdsource turbulence data from other flights.

[Machine] Caution turbulence detected.

[Andrea] The yellow dots means they're encountering

light turbulence along the way.

And you can see that if you hover over any individual dot

like that orange dot there, it'll show you

you're gonna encounter moderate turbulence

at flight level 400 or 40,000 feet.

[Narrator] With this information in mind,

pilots can decide to circumnavigate turbulence,

for example, by adjusting altitude.

Clear air turbulence caused by jet streams

tends to be due to a very narrow band of air

that's moving very rapidly.

That narrow band of air

may only only be 2000, 3,000 feet thick,

and if that's the case, then you can just climb

or descend a couple thousand feet

and be out of it right away.

So when we encounter clear air turbulence

the very first thing we'll do,

of course, is turn the seatbelt sign on,

make sure we call back to the flight attendants,

and make sure they're either seated if it's bad enough,

or that they're checking the passengers are seated

if it's not bad enough.

We'll talk to air traffic control right away.

We'll figure out what the planes ahead of us are seeing

and if they're doing any better at any other altitude,

so we can climb or descend immediately.

[Narrator] And for pilots, this also means going as fast

as safely possible to get through turbulence.

Most of the time when we're flying

through clear air turbulence,

we're gonna keep the auto flight systems on.

Oftentimes, the auto throttles though in severe turbulence

are recommended to be turned off.

And the reason why is because those thrust levers

will be chasing around airspeeds pretty rapidly

and it's not necessarily good for the engines.

It's better just to leave them in one steady place

and hope that the airspeed is not chasing itself.

[Narrator] When pilots are in turbulence,

they tend to go out maneuvering air speed.

What that is, is the fastest speed that you can fly,

have full deflection of your control surfaces,

and not structurally damage the aircraft.

to reach that maneuvering air speed

so that it doesn't get bounced around as much

and that we can go through at the quickest we can

without bouncing around the passengers too much.

The airlines are constantly changing

to adapt to our dynamic and changing air travel environment.

So if climate conditions make turbulence worse,

then we will continue to evolve

and make sure that turbulence procedures

are reflected in that, even if that means

different procedures to avoid it in the first place.

I specialize in turbulence.

I study it every day, I have done for 20 years.

But even for me, when I fly through turbulence

I feel that energy in my stomach, my heart racing.

It just plugs into a very primitive part of our brains

that logic can't override.

And I tell myself, I understand.

You know, this is why I study.

I'm perfectly safe.

It doesn't help.

A tip I heard recently is to order a drink

and just put the drink in front of you

and watch how still the water surface is in turbulence

because the emotions are a lot less severe than you think.

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• The Future of Air Travel: Toward a better in-flight experience

A snapshot from Air Travel Design Guide, illustrating artifacts, spaces, and systems that impact the passenger experience in travel. Illustrations by Isa He

Anyone remember air travel? In early 2020, as the COVID-19 pandemic swept across the globe and international flights were hurriedly cancelled, the Harvard Graduate School of Design’s Laboratory for Design Technologies (LDT) pivoted its three-year focus project, The Future of Air Travel , to respond to new industry conditions in a rapidly changing world. With the broad goal of better understanding how design technologies can improve the way we live, the project aims to reimagine air travel for the future, recapturing some of its early promise (and even glamour) by assessing and addressing various pressure points resulting from the pandemic as well as more long-term challenges.

The two participating research labs—the Responsive Environments and Artifacts Lab (REAL) , led by Allen Sayegh , associate professor in practice of architectural technology, and the Geometry Lab, led by Andrew Witt , associate professor in practice of architecture—“look at air travel from an experiential and a systemic perspective.” As part of their research, the labs consulted with representatives from Boeing, Clark Construction, Perkins & Will, gmp, and the Massachusetts Port Authority, all members of the GSD’s Industry Advisors Group .

So far, the project has resulted in two research books: An Atlas of Urban Air Mobility and On Flying: The Toolkit of Tactics that Guide Passenger Perception (and its accompanying website www.airtraveldesign.guide ).  On Flying , by Sayegh, REAL Research Associate Humbi Song , and Lecturer in Architecture Zach Seibold , seeks “to facilitate a rethinking of how to design objects, spaces, and systems by putting the human experience at the forefront”—and in so doing “prepare and design for improved passenger experiences in a post-COVID world.” The book’s accessible glossary covers topics including the design implications of the middle armrest (“What if armrests were shareable without physical contact?”); whether the check-in process could be improved by biometric scanners; the effect of customs declarations on passengers; how air travel is predicated on “an absence of discomfort” instead of maximizing comfort; and the metaphysical aspects of jet lag.

The project “examines and provides insight into the complex interplay of human experience, public and private systems, technological innovation, and the disruptive shock events that sometimes define the air-travel industry”. Consider, for instance, the security requirements of air travel in a post-COVID world—how can the flow of passengers through the departure/arrival process be streamlined while incorporating safety measures such social distancing?

On Flying acknowledges that it’s hard to quantify many of the designed elements—ranging from artifacts to spaces and systems—that affect our experience of air travel. So the toolkit methodically catalogs and identifies these various factors before speculating on alternative scenarios for design and passenger interaction. A year into the project, Phase 2 will more overtly examine the context of COVID-19, considering it alongside other catastrophic events, such as 9/11, in order to better understand and plan for their impact on the industry as a whole and on passenger behavior.

Meanwhile, An Atlas of Urban Air Mobility , by Witt and Lecturer in Architecture Hyojin Kwon , is “a collection of the dimensional and spatial parameters that establish relationships between aerial transport and the city,” and it aims to establish a “kit of parts” for the aerial city of the future. Phase 1 considered the idea of new super-conglomerates of cities, dependent on inter-connectivity of air routes—specifically looking at the unique qualities of Florida as an air travel hub. The atlas investigates flightpath planning and noise pollution and other spatial constraints of air travel within urban environments. One possible solution it raises is the concept of “clustered networks,” where electrical aerial vehicles could be used in an interconnected pattern of local urban conurbations, reflecting a hierarchy of passenger flight, depending on scale and distance traveled.

Phase 2 will move into software and atlas development, expanding the atlas as well as their simulation and planning software. One intriguing aspect will be a critical history of past visions of future air travel: a chance to look back in order to look forward with fresh eyes. By studying our shared dream of air travel, the hope is to rediscover and reboot abandoned visions that may yet prove to inspire new innovations.

It’s a reminder that, not so long ago, international flight excited and inspired us—before the realities of delayed flights, lost luggage, rude customs officials, and poorly planned infrastructure stole our dreams. And that’s before we ever stepped onto the plane itself. According to the Air Travel Design Guide , the social contract of air travel has now become so skewed from the original glamorous proposition that today, “the passenger can feel as if they are at the mercy of nature, airport security personnel, or the airline cabin crew. They are directed where to go, how to move, and even when to go to the bathroom on the plane.”

Surely it can—and should—be better than this?

“We may not arrive more on time,” the team concludes, “but thanks to the introduction of better design practice—we might enjoy the experience better.”

Learn more about the Laboratory for Design Technologies and its Industry Advisors Group (IAG) partners at research.gsd.harvard.edu/ldt/

• Responsive Environments
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Advancing technology for aeronautics, communications specialist.

Bailey G. Light

Future forecasts to prepare for the next era of aeronautics, ground control software for unmanned aircraft systems, algorithms to predict runway traffic changes at u.s. airports, an app to uncover how people operate autonomous systems, a more efficient wind tunnel design to minimize downtime.

The future of flight looks very exciting, and the public is helping NASA see it more clearly. For more than a century, NASA and its predecessor, the National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics, have been the global leader in aeronautics research. NASA’s innovative contributions to aviation benefit the U.S. economy, air transportation system, aviation industry, and passengers and businesses who rely on flight every day. NASA is with you when you fly, and the agency continues to revolutionize research and development activities for the aviation industry of tomorrow.  

NASA’s public prize competitions, challenges, and crowdsourcing activities illuminate what is on the horizon for air and aviation on Earth. These research and development challenges yield innovative ideas, including future forecasts to inform strategies for the next era of aviation, algorithms to predict runway traffic changes at U.S. airports, and more. 

NASA’s vision for aeronautical research for the next 25 years and beyond encompasses a range of technologies for safe, efficient, flexible, and environmentally sustainable air transportation. To prepare for this future, NASA’s Convergent Aeronautics Solutions project conducted a challenge that prompted the public to imagine the state of aviation in 25 years. 

NASA’s Future-Scaping Our Skies Challenge asked participants to predict and describe future aviation using timelines and storylines, including data sources, references, and multimedia illustrations when possible. The contest awarded $21,000 to nine top winners. Judges evaluated the contest submissions based on their descriptions of possible future scenarios and the key events and trends leading to the proposed outcomes. 

According to Team Sparkletron, which placed first in the competition, advanced computation and machine learning might be modeling changes in aviation and the future of aviation better than ever. Such models could apply to commercial and personal flying applications.

In 2021, more than 873,000 Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS)—also known as drones—were registered to fly in the United States. With a host of potential applications, including delivery of products, search and rescue, and agricultural monitoring, drone numbers will likely rise. 1

Working in partnership with the Federal Aviation Administration for more than 25 years, NASA is researching technologies for traffic management of drones. A large portion of air traffic management is ground control, which manages aircraft on the runways. To help develop ground control software for small drones, NASA asked the public to modify and enhance an existing application through an Unmanned Aircraft Systems Ground Control Station Software Challenge series. During the course of about a year, a series of challenges received 92 entries from 58 countries. Altogether, NASA awarded a total of $30,700 to 47 winners for the development of ground control software for small drones.

The National Airspace System (NAS) is undergoing modernization to make flying safer, more efficient, and more predictable 2 —and NASA is involved in this transformation. The NAS is made up of more than 29 million square miles that include airspace, air navigation facilities, airports and landing areas, and more.

To enable more cohesive decision-making in current and future NAS operations, NASA is building a cloud-based Digital Information Platform (DIP) for advanced data-driven digital services. Through DIP, NASA identified a need for algorithms that can accurately predict changes in the configuration of runways at U.S. airports. Runway configuration, or the direction that traffic is moving on runways, can adjust multiple times per day and can significantly impact flight delays and decisions across the NAS. 3

The goal of the Run-way Functions: Predict Reconfigurations at U.S. Airports Challenge was to design algorithms to automatically predict airport configuration changes from real-time data sources. Submissions tested using a mock data set of 10 airports, and judges scored the algorithms based on how the predictions compared to the ground truth. The top four solutions, which came from New York University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge; University of Maryland, College Park; and Pennsylvania State University, State College, won awards totaling $40,000.

Human-autonomy teaming (HAT) aims to understand how people work together with autonomous systems like drones. For example, how long can a person safely operate a drone piloted by remote control or onboard computers? Can one person effectively operate multiple autonomous vehicles at once? 

NASA opened the Human-Autonomy Teaming Task Battery (HATTB) App contest to develop software to run an existing battery of tasks that simulate pilot responsibilities during flight. The potential app could support researchers in evaluating the performance of research participants while participants monitored virtual autonomous machines and performed other tasks simultaneously. More than $160,000 was awarded to 33 contest winners. 

The HATTB app could help NASA and other researchers understand how well people and autonomous systems communicate and collaborate. The app is incorporated into a study by students at Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Virginia, to examine the effect of time on HAT. 4

NASA facilities are home to a variety of wind tunnels for testing aircraft and spacecraft. By simulating the movement of air around vehicles during flight, NASA uses wind tunnels to test new vehicle shapes, materials, and other design elements. 

The NASA concept study, “New Wind Tunnel Landscape,” aims to develop new options to support wind tunnel testing in the next 20-50 years. One opportunity for advancement is the test section—the area where researchers place the components, exposing them to airflow. When preparing the test section for a new model, the wind tunnel is unusable due to the time-consuming process.

To address the downtime, NASA called on the public through the New Transonic Wind Tunnel Test Section Challenge. This $7,000 competition sought new designs for a wind tunnel facility with test sections capable of efficient, rapid reconfiguration. 

Winning designs addressed the inefficiency of data and instrumentation system connections that delay reconfiguring the test section, ground-level carts to simplify transferring models to and from the test section, and modular test section containers that include everything needed for a quick swap. 

[1] https://www3.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/utm-factsheet-11-05-15.pdf

[2] https://www.faa.gov/nextgen

[3] https://www.drivendata.org/competitions/89/competition-nasa-airport-configuration/

[4] https://sites.google.com/odu.edu/odu-reu-transportation/research-projects

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Supersonic Plane Travel Is Closer Than You Thought

By Jessica Puckett

For many travelers, the words ‘supersonic flight’ conjure up images both futuristic and nostalgic.

Gone are the glory days of the Concorde , the iconic long-nosed jet that transported celebrities and assorted jet-setters across the Atlantic in just a few hours. Beloved for its short transit time— New York to London in just over three hours, going at about twice the speed of sound—the Concorde met its end because of a variety of complications. Firstly, the fact that the jets created a loud sonic boom (the roar that results when an aircraft breaks the sound barrier), and even more importantly, that they were expensive to operate, making it difficult for airlines to turn a profit. By 2003, Concorde was defunct.

But now, two aviation projects are working to overcome those concerns to make supersonic air travel a reality for passengers once more: a private company called Boom Technology and the second, a partnership between NASA and Lockheed Martin. Later this year, both programs will hit a major milestone when they launch test flights of their innovative aircraft for the first time.

Here’s what travelers should know about the supersonic test flights launching in the US in 2024.

A quest for a quiet boom

One major reason why supersonic planes are no longer a facet of modern air travel is the deafening boom the jets create as they cross the sound barrier. Due to the thunderous noise, Concorde was only allowed to fly faster than the speed of sound over water, a regulation still in place for supersonic flights today.

But NASA and Lockheed Martin are endeavoring to find a way to make crossing the sound barrier quieter. NASA’s mission, called Quesst, is to design a jet that creates a noise more like a “sonic thump,” than a roaring boom, according to a NASA release .

NASA and Lockheed just debuted that experimental jet to the public on January 12. Dubbed X-59, the jet is expected to fly 1.4 times faster than the speed of sound—or 925 miles per hour. The aircraft’s innovative design, unique shape, and other technologies are expected to help diminish its sonic boom.

The X-59 jet is expected to fly 1.4 times faster than the speed of sound—or 925 miles per hour.

With the design now complete, the aircraft will undergo a series of ground tests before its first flight. “The aircraft is set to take off for the first time later this year, followed by its first quiet supersonic flight,” NASA says. The first test flights will take place in California , both at Lockheed’s and NASA’s research centers. “Once NASA completes flight tests, the agency will fly the aircraft over several to-be-selected cities across the US, collecting input about the sound the X-59 generates and how people perceive it,” the agency’s release says.

NASA will share its data with regulators and the wider air travel industry. “By demonstrating the possibility of quiet commercial supersonic travel over land, we seek to open new commercial markets for US companies and benefit travelers around the world,” Bob Pearce, associate administrator for aeronautics research at NASA Headquarters in Washington, says in the release.

A supersonic jet with a business-class feel

NASA isn't the only major player working to bring supersonic flight back from the past and into the future of air travel . Boom Supersonic, a private company based in Colorado, aims to bring commercial supersonic flights back to US airlines by 2029. When completed, its passenger aircraft, Overture, is expected to fly at speeds up to Mach 1.7, which is about 1,300 miles per hour—or twice as fast as today’s passenger planes .

At those speeds, passengers can travel from New York to Rome in just five hours (instead of eight), Honolulu to Tokyo in four hours (instead of more than eight), and Zurich to Philadelphia in less than five hours (compared to nine).

Boom’s first test aircraft, called XB-1, is set to take its first test flight in early 2024 at the Mojave Air and Space Port in California. XB-1 is a supersonic demonstrator jet, used to prove Boom’s ability to cross the sound barrier, and not an aircraft that will carry passengers. (Overture, which is designed to carry passengers, isn’t expected to be tested until 2026.)

“In the last 12 months, XB-1 has received its airworthiness certificate from the Federal Aviation Administration, completed an extensive Flight Readiness Review (FRR), and successfully executed a series of integrated ground and taxi tests,” Boom says on its website . So far, the XB-1 has reach speeds of up to 108 miles per hour during taxi tests on the ground. Before the jet can fly, it will need to complete a few more ground tests, including high-speed taxis.

The company says that the Overture aircraft is being designed to meet today’s takeoff and landing noise levels, and will only cross the sound barrier over water. Boom could also possibly leverage NASA’s quiet boom technology in the future, according to a company spokesperson. “When flying over land, Overture can fly significantly faster than subsonic commercial jets—about Mach 0.94, without breaking the sound barrier,” says the Boom spokesperson. “This is about 20% faster than subsonic flight.”

Harrison Pierce

María Casbas

CNT Editors

Boom’s first test aircraft, called XB-1, is set to take its first test flight in early 2024 at the Mojave Air and Space Port in California.

Learnings from XB-1’s test flights will be applied to the Overture jet that will carry passengers past the sound barrier. US airlines have already begun placing orders for Boom’s supersonic aircraft, in anticipation of Concorde-like travel becoming mainstream once again.

United Airlines was the first carrier to purchase supersonic planes from Boom, ordering 15 of the Overture jets, set to be delivered in 2029, with an option to buy an additional 35. “Among the many future potential routes for United are Newark to London in just three and a half hours, Newark to Frankfurt in four hours and San Francisco to Tokyo in just six hours,” United said when it announced the purchase.

American Airlines , which ordered up to 20 of the aircraft with an option to buy an additional 40, said its potential supersonic routes could include “ Miami to London in just under five hours and Los Angeles to Honolulu in three hours are among the many possibilities.”

Of course, fares will be left up to the airlines to set; however, Boom CEO Blake Scholl has said that the planes are designed to compete with current international business-class ticket prices, starting around $5,000.

Inside, the planes will have a more exclusive atmosphere compared to current planes flying international routes, carrying just 64 to 80 passengers. Boom is designing its supersonic plane cabin to compete with current airlines’ top business-class products . Some of the cabin features could include large personal windows, direct aisle access, dedicated underseat storage , and a first-class, lie-flat experience .

How will supersonic air travel impact travelers?

The modern revival of supersonic air travel has the potential to create a more sustainable way to fly. Not only could the sonic booms be quieter (thus reducing the negative effects aircraft noise can have on wildlife), but the plane’s carbon footprints could also be drastically reduced. Boom’s planes will be able to run entirely on sustainable aviation fuel , meaning the flights could emit a net-zero carbon output.

While many of us may never get to experience the golden age of flying , supersonic jets could usher in a new era of luxe flying—for when it comes to travel, time truly is our most precious commodity. For many customers “Concorde delivered efficiency, effectiveness, comfort, and the ability to do in two days what would otherwise take four,” Mike Bannister, former chief Concorde pilot for British Airways said in a Boom release in 2020. Supersonic flight was especially appealing to business travelers , who had the ability to make a day trip out of a long-haul transatlantic trip. “They could travel from London to New York and back in a single day and still have time to do business upon final landing," he said.

The short travel times can also help significantly reduce the effects of jet lag , according to former Concorde passengers and pilots. “In crossing the Atlantic from London to New York in three hours and twenty minutes, we endured no jet lag, arrived on time, earlier than we left, and with very happy customers,” Bannister said. (This becomes especially true if you can take a day trip across time zones and retire for the night in your own bed.)

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The Future of Air Travel in a New Age of Technology

As technology becomes more advanced, the way we do things will change. One such area where this is happening is air travel. The article discusses a few topics that have changed, or are changing, due to technology and how it’s affecting air travel.

Have you been following the latest developments in air travel technology? Air travel is evolving and transportation companies are introducing a lot of new technologies to make this form of transportation faster, safer, and more enjoyable.

The aviation industry is about to be hit by the next disruptive technological change.Select

Air travel used to be a luxury reserved for the wealthy and privileged, but as the world has become more globalized, we’ve seen air travel grow from a novelty to an everyday essential. But what will the future of air travel be like? Experts say that in a new age of technology, air travel may not even be necessary.

Let’s begin!

Table of contents

What is the Future of Air Travel?

How will technology be integrated into air travel, what are some implications of new technology in the airline industry.

Also Read:  The Role of AI in Education And Learning: Just Promises Or Revolution

The future of air travel is shrouded in potential but fraught with uncertainty. But despite the challenges that lie ahead, there is reason to be optimistic about the future of air travel.

Air travel has come a long way in a relatively short period of time. In 1903, the Wright brothers made history with the first powered flight. Just over 50 years later, jet engines were powering commercial aircraft, and air travel had become an integral part of our lives. Today, we take for granted the fact that we can board an airplane and be whisked away to our destination in a matter of hours.

But what does the future hold for air travel? That’s a difficult question to answer, as there are so many variables at play. But one thing is certain: technology will continue to play a major role in shaping the future of air travel.

For example, we’re already seeing the rise of electric aircraft. These planes are quieter and produce far fewer emissions than their traditional counterparts. As battery technology continues to improve, it’s likely that electric aircraft will become increasingly viable in the coming years.

We’re also seeing new developments in autonomous flying technologies. These could potentially revolutionize air travel, making it safer and more efficient than ever before. Imagine being able to take a nap on your flight while your plane flies itself!

Of course, these are just a few examples of the many exciting innovations that are currently in development. It’s impossible to know exactly what the future of air travel will look like. But one thing is for sure: it’s going to be fascinating to watch.

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Technology has always played a role in air travel, from the Wright brothers using wind tunnels to test their airplane designs to the use of computers to help land today’s jets. The next few years will see even more changes as new technology is developed and tested for use in aviation.

One area that is seeing a lot of development is aircraft design. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is being used more and more to design better-performing airplanes. This technology allows for the testing of different designs without having to build physical prototypes, which can save a lot of time and money.

Another area where technology is being integrated into air travel is in the cockpit. Cockpit displays are becoming more advanced, giving pilots access to more information than ever before. In addition, many planes are now being equipped with head-up displays (HUDs), which project important information onto the windshield so that pilots can keep their eyes up and look outside.

Air traffic control is another area where new technology is making a big impact. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is working on a new system called NextGen that will make use of GPS tracking to help manage air traffic. This will allow for more efficient routing of aircraft, helping to reduce delays and congestion.

Technology will also play a role in making air travel more sustainable in the future. Electric aircraft are being developed that could one day replace traditional planes powered by fossil fuels. These planes would be much quieter and produce far less

The airline industry is on the cusp of a new era of technological advancement. This new age of technology will bring with it a host of implications for the way airlines operate. Perhaps the most significant implication is the way in which new technology will impact the safety and security of air travel. With new developments in aircraft tracking and communication, there will be a greater ability for airlines to monitor their fleets and ensure that flights are safe.

In addition, new technologies will also lead to more efficient and cost-effective operations for airlines. For example, automated check-in and boarding procedures will save time and money.

Let us try to imagine how the aviation industry will appear in the following years:

Facial recognition, fingerprint authentication, and retina scanning are just a few examples of biometric technologies that will replace traditional methods of verification. Eventually, the full verification process will be conducted digitally thanks to the widespread use of biometric technology for use in airport check-ins, onboarding, and migration procedures. Passengers will be able to monitor the status of their bags in real time thanks to this feature’s expansion into the baggage claim area.

Machine Learning & AI

Research shows that the market for AI in the aviation industry would grow at a CAGR of 46.4% between 2017 and 2023. Aiming to maximize passenger happiness, AI is being utilized to provide a uniquely tailored travel experience. Digital interactions between airlines and passengers are becoming more individualized, optimized, and scalable thanks to AI. The airline sector is benefiting from the application of AI and ML to passenger feedback in order to better tailor its offerings to individual customers.

The trend toward data democratization is enabling businesses to make fact-based strategic decisions. Big data, together with AI and ML, is allowing businesses to better anticipate and prepare for consumer behavior. With data fast becoming the digital age’s most prized possession, it makes sense to use data mining tools to design a foolproof strategy.

Finally, the introduction of new technology will also change the customer experience, with passengers able to take advantage of digital tools to make their journey more comfortable and enjoyable.

Also Read:  Why Is CRM Software a Game-changer When It Comes to Delivering Better Customer Experiences?

With the advancements in technology, the future of air travel looks very promising. We can expect to see faster and more efficient planes that are able to fly longer distances. Additionally, new technological innovations will make flying safer than ever before. With all of these exciting developments, it’s safe to say that the sky is the limit for the future of air travel.

If you are interested in elevating your businesses using technology, connect with our industry experts at   Aeologic Technologies.

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Ingenuity Mars Helicopter

NASA's Ingenuity Mars Helicopter has completed 72 historic flights since first taking to the skies above the Red Planet.

Launch/Landing

Destination

Strapped to the Mars Perseverance rover's belly for the journey to Mars was a technology demonstration — the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, which completed 72 historic flights and became the first aircraft to achieve powered, controlled flight on another planet.

Meet Ingenuity

The legacy of ingenuity.

On April 19, 2021, NASA's Ingenuity Mars Helicopter made history when it completed the first powered, controlled flight on the Red Planet. It flew for the last time on January 18, 2024.   Designed to be a technology demonstration that would make no more than five test flights in 30 days, the helicopter eventually completed 72 flights in just under 3 years, soaring higher and faster than previously imagined. Ingenuity embarked on a new mission as an operations demonstration, serving as an aerial scout for scientists and rover planners, and for engineers ready to learn more about Perseverance’s landing gear debris. In its final phase, the helicopter entered a new engineering demonstration phase where it executed experimental flight tests that further expanded the team’s knowledge of the vehicle’s aerodynamic limits.

Ingenuity Timeline

April 3, 2021.

Four Feet on Mars

April 4, 2021

Surviving the First Night

April 8, 2021

First Rotor Spin Tests

April 19, 2021

First Flight

April 25, 2021

First Photo of Rover

May 7, 2021

Tech Demo Complete

July 5, 2021

Venturing to New Territory

July 24, 2021

First Scouting Flight

August 4, 2021

Another Rover Sighting

April 8, 2022

Setting the Distance Record

April 19, 2022

Sighting Rover's Landing Hardware

April 13, 2023

50 Flights and Beyond

October 5, 2023

Setting the Altitude Record

October 12, 2023

Setting the Groundspeed Record

January 25, 2024

NASA's Ingenuity Helicopter Mission Ends

5 Things to Know

1. The first aircraft to achieve powered, controlled flight on another planet, a feat that's been called a "Wright Brothers moment." 2. Completed 128.8 flying minutes, covering 10.5 miles (17.0 kilometers), and reaching altitudes as high as 78.7 feet (24.0 meters). 3. Successfully flying in the extremely thin Martian atmosphere. 4. Previewing areas of Mars of possible interest for the Perseverance rover to explore. 5. Paved the way for future aerial explorers at Mars and, potentially, other space destinations.

Helicopter Updates

Take a flight down memory lane to view archived mission updates provided by the Mars Helicopter team.

Ingenuity Resources

From its first days on the Martian surface through its 72 historic flights, view images and videos of the helicopter's journey on Mars.

Perseverance Rover Stories

NASA’s Ingenuity Mars Helicopter Team Says Goodbye … for Now

Rock Sampled by NASA’s Perseverance Embodies Why Rover Came to Mars

Team Assessing SHERLOC Instrument on NASA’s Perseverance Rover

A New Home for Ingenuity Mars Helicopter Prototype

After Three Years on Mars, NASA’s Ingenuity Helicopter Mission Ends

Discover More Topics From NASA

James Webb Space Telescope

Perseverance Rover

Parker Solar Probe

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International travel demand drives ANA revenues and operating profits

By Greg Waldron 2024-04-26T08:33:00+01:00

Strong travel demand and cost controls helped ANA Holdings, the parent of All Nippon Airways, power to a record operating profit its latest financial year.

ANA’s highlights in the 12 months to 31 March included the capture of inbound demand from Asia and North America, which also saw “higher-for-longer” yields.

Source: Greg Waldron/FlightGlobal

Carrier captured inbound traffic from Asia and North America

Domestically, ANA was able to capture strong demand for leisure travel, while low-cost unit Peach expanded its international routes, resulting in record revenues and operating profitability.

“Passenger demand continues to recover despite concerns about geopolitical risks such as the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East region and the implications for the airline industry,” says ANA.

“Against the backdrop of factors such as the change in the status of Covid-19 to a category 5 infectious disease in Japan, both international and domestic passenger services performed well, supported by strong demand for inbound travel to Japan and domestic leisure demand, leading to significantly higher operating revenue compared to the previous fiscal year.”

For the 2023 financial year ANA saw a consolidated operating profit of Y208 billion ($1.3 billion), doubling from a year earlier. Revenue rose 20.4% to Y2.1 trillion, as net profits nearly doubled to Y157 billion.

Mainline carrier ANA’s international passenger revenue jumped 68% to Y728 billion, as the number of international passengers carried rose 69.4% to 7.1 million. International ASKs rose 48.5% as RPKs rose 56%, while ANA’s international passenger load factor rose 3.7 percentage points to 77.3%.

ANA’s domestic passenger revenue rose 21.8% to Y654 billion, as the number of domestic passengers rose 18% to 40 million. Domestic ASKs rose 8.7% as domestic RPKs rose 18.2%. ANA’s domestic passenger load factor rose 5.7 percentage points to 70.2%.

Low-cost unit Peach also had a good year, with revenue climbing 53% to Y138 billion, and passengers carried climbing 20.2% to 9.3 million. Peach’s ASKs rose 10%, RPKs rose 29.9%, and its passenger load factor improved 13.2 percentage points to 86.7%.

Cargo, however, was a weak spot for ANA. “For international cargo service, despite efforts to capture demand between North America and Asia, volume and revenue for international cargo decreased from the same period of the previous fiscal year, due to a decline in market demand from major industries such as semiconductors, electronics and automotive-related industries,” says ANA.

“Nevertheless, its revenue remained at approximately 1.5 times higher compared to fiscal year 2019. For the route network, we worked to ensure profitability by actively monitoring demand trends and flexibly adjusting the utilization of freighters.”

ANA’s international cargo revenue fell 49.5% to Y156 billion, as freight carried declined 15.6%.

For the year ahead, ANA Holdings expects revenues to rise on the back of more growth in international travel demand. For the 2024 financial year ended 31 March 2025, it forecasts that operating revenue will rise 6.5% to Y2.2 trillion, but believes that an increase in operating costs will push operating profits down 18% to Y170 billion.

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Airline industry expected to soar with record summer travel.

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The airline industry is gearing up for what could be a record-breaking summer travel season, if forecasts turn out to be correct. Despite challenges such as the Boeing 737 MAX 9 grounding and aircraft delivery delays, airlines are reporting strong demand and growth, particularly in international markets. For investors, this could be a unique opportunity to gain exposure to a sector that’s poised for takeoff.

Not every carrier has reported results for the March quarter yet, but what I’ve seen has been encouraging. Delta Air Lines reported record quarterly revenue and expects continued strong momentum, targeting earnings of $6 to $7 per share and free cash flow of $3 to $4 billion for the full year. United Airlines, despite a pre-tax loss that’s largely attributed to the MAX 9 grounding, saw a $92 million improvement over the same quarter last year.

“Demand continued to be strong, and we see a record spring and summer travel season with our 11 highest sales says in our history all occurring this calendar year,” Delta CEO Ed Bastian said during the company’s earnings call.

Passenger Figures Off To A Record Start

The big takeaway is that the U.S. economy and air travel remain healthy, with airlines experiencing record numbers of travelers. Checkpoint volumes provided by the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) are off to a record start in 2024, with carriers in the U.S. handling an average of 2.26 million passengers each day, a 5.6% increase over the same period in 2019.

Air passenger volumes exceeded pre-pandemic levels in the first quarter

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This bodes well for the industry, as higher passenger volumes translate to increased revenue and potentially better margins.

International Travel Boom Despite Supply Constraints

International travel is driving the recovery, with U.S.-international air travel rising 15% year-over-year in the first three months of 2024, according to Airlines for America (A4A). This trend is also reflected in the latest data from Airports Council International (ACI), which shows that while domestic airport markets grew over 20% in 2023, international markets drove the recovery with a 36.5% growth rate.

The airline industry is not without its challenges. The global airline industry is facing a summer squeeze as travel demand is expected to surpass pre-pandemic levels while aircraft deliveries drop sharply due to production problems at Boeing and Airbus. Airlines are spending billions on repairs to keep flying older, less fuel-efficient jets and paying a premium to secure aircraft from lessors. This has led to increased costs and could potentially impact margins in the short term.

Why Airline Stocks Could Soar In The Coming Years

Nevertheless, I believe the long-term outlook for the airline industry remains positive. The shift toward hybrid work has created a new segment of travelers who have the time and money to spend on air travel. This trend, coupled with the pent-up demand for leisure travel, should help support the industry’s growth in the coming years.

Additionally, airlines have prioritized debt reduction, which should help improve their balance sheets and credit ratings over time. At the end of 2023, the domestic industry reported a collective $143 billion in debt, an approximately 15% decrease from 2021 levels.

U.S. airlines have prioritized debt reduction

As we head into the summer travel season, I believe now may be the time for investors to consider adding exposure to this sector. With a long-term outlook and a diversified approach, investors can potentially benefit from the industry’s recovery and growth in the coming years.

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Airlines required to refund passengers for canceled, delayed flights

Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg announced the new rules Wednesday.

Good news for airline travelers: the Department of Transportation on Wednesday announced it is rolling out new rules that will require airlines to automatically give cash refunds to passengers for canceled and significantly delayed flights.

"This is a big day for America's flying public," said Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at a Wednesday morning news conference. Buttigieg said the new rules -- which require prompt refunds -- are the biggest expansion of passenger rights in the department's history.

Airlines can no longer decide how long a delay must be before a refund is issued. Under the new DOT rules, the delays covered would be more than three hours for domestic flights and more than six hours for international flights, the agency said.

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This includes tickets purchased directly from airlines, travel agents and third-party sites such as Expedia and Travelocity.

The DOT rules lay out that passengers will be "entitled to a refund if their flight is canceled or significantly changed, and they do not accept alternative transportation or travel credits offered."

DOT will also require airlines to give cash refunds if your bags are lost and not delivered within 12 hours.

The refunds must be issued within seven days, according to the new DOT rules, and must be in cash unless the passenger chooses another form of compensation. Airlines can no longer issue refunds in forms of vouchers or credits when consumers are entitled to receive cash.

Airlines will have six months to comply with the new rules.

"Passengers deserve to get their money back when an airline owes them -- without headaches or haggling," Buttigieg said in a statement.

The DOT said it is also working on rules related to family seating fees, enhancing rights for wheelchair-traveling passengers for safe and dignified travel and mandating compensation and amenities if flights are delayed or canceled by airlines.

Buttigieg said the DOT is also protecting airline passengers from being surprised by hidden fees -- a move he estimates will have Americans billions of dollars every year.

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The DOT rules include that passengers will receive refunds for extra services paid for and not provided, such as Wi-Fi, seat selection or inflight entertainment.

The rules come after the agency handed Southwest Airlines a record $140 million fine for its operational meltdown during the 2022 holiday travel season.

MORE: New whistleblower claims put Boeing's quality control under more scrutiny

Buttigieg said Southwest's fine sets a "new standard" for airlines and passenger rights.

"To be clear, we want the airline sector to thrive. It is why we put so much into helping them survive the pandemic and honestly it's why we're being so rigorous on passenger protection," he said.

Buttigieg reiterated that refund requirements are already the standard for airlines, but the new DOT rules hold the airlines to account and makes sure passengers get the "refunds that are owed to them."

"Airlines are not enthusiastic about us holding them to a higher standard," Buttigieg said, adding that he "knows they will be able to adapt to this."

Airlines for America, the trade association for the country's leading passenger and cargo airlines, told ABC News in a statement that its members "offer a range of options -- including fully refundable fares." Is said consumers are "given the choice of refundable ticket options with terms and conditions that best fit their needs at first search results."

The group said the 11 largest U.S. airlines issued $43 billion in customer refunds from 2020 through 2023 nearly $11 billion in refunds just last year.

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Skywave Alpha Future Flight Set

This content requires a game (sold separately).

Game requires online multiplayer subscription to play on console (Game Pass Core or Ultimate, sold separately).

Description

This pack contains five cosmetic items, including a skin for the Support suit Skywave, which calls down lightning from above to paralyze foes. Future Flight provides comfortable air travel! Equip these cosmetic items and deliver safe and secure support to your allies! Contains the following content: Skywave α Future Flight Set 　　- Future Flight (Skywave α: Exosuit Skin) 　　- Heavenly Wing (decal) 　　- Pirouette (emote) 　　- Aid from above! (stamp) 　　- Jet Plane (charm) Note: Items included in this set may also be available for purchase individually or as part of other sets. Please be careful of duplicate purchases. Skins, decals, and charms are cosmetic items that change the appearance of an exosuit and have no other effect. Emotes and stamps are items that can be used to customize the in-game Comm Wheel. Obtained additional contents can be used by going from the title screen to the in-game home screen. Note: This DLC is only playable on the Microsoft account that purchases it. Even if you are the organizer of a family group, family member accounts will not receive it.

Published by

Developed by, release date, playable on.

• Xbox Series X|S

Capabilities

• Online co-op
• Online multiplayer

Included in