overseas adventure travel financial problems covid 19

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COVID-19 ruined my travel plans. Now what?

If COVID-19 canceled your travel plans, you are likely disappointed and wondering about refunds, credits, or vouchers for plane tickets, cruise bookings, tours, and more. Even if your scheduled travel is months away, you might be weighing your options. And many travel service providers seem to be working to address concerns about upcoming trips. 

Start by reviewing the travel provider’s refund policies and the terms of your reservation to see your options. In addition, many companies are posting information on their websites about COVID-19 travel-related questions. Many are offering refunds or rebooking options in light of the situation. Of course, check to see if you purchased travel insurance and what it covers. Some travel insurance policies may refund your cancelled trip.

Here’s what we know right now:

Airlines: According to the U.S. Department of Transportation , airlines must offer refunds, including the ticket price and any optional fee charged for cancelled or significantly delayed flights, even when flight disruptions are outside their control. If your airline isn’t doing that, you can report it to the U.S. Department of Transportation .

Cruise Lines: If you booked a cruise, your options will vary by cruise line. Your ticket contract lays out cancellation policies and your rights. For example, you may be offered a refund, or a credit or voucher for a future cruise. If you opt for a credit or voucher, make sure the expiration date is far enough out that you can use it. Read more from the Federal Maritime Commission about your rights and the recourse that might be available to you.

Trains: Amtrak is waiving change fees for reservations made before May 31, 2020; you can make changes online at Amtrak.com . For cancellations and refunds, call 1-800-USA-RAIL.

Lodging: Some hotel chains may be loosening their cancellation policies, waiving change and cancellation fees that would normally apply to non-refundable rates. Check with the hotel for your options.

As with many purchases, your best option is usually to directly contact the company you booked with to see if you can resolve a problem. So, whether you booked directly with an airline or hotel, or you used a travel site or consolidator, start with them. Then, to report a travel-related problem, contact your State Attorney General’s office or tell the FTC at ftc.gov/complaint .

To learn more about consumer issues resulting from the Coronavirus pandemic, sign up for the FTC’s consumer alerts at ftc.gov/subscribe .

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Allie May 01, 2020 Please comment on health travel insurance companies, who simply said mid-March they were no longer honoring an existing policy. Where to go for help?

Ms.Muggi May 01, 2020 thanks for this imported Infos

Rcope May 01, 2020 This article couldn’t have been more well-timed today. My trip to Cancun was cancelled three weeks ago by a major airline (unnamed), which would have left tomorrow, May 2nd. Needless to say, everything has been thrown into total chaos by Covid-19 for everyone across the globe. While my airline has offered future vouchers, I’m still having trouble with getting a refund or credit from the travel agency I used to book my resort. Hopefully they return my call or contact me somehow. I’ve placed an online request for a refund/other options, it’s just a nightmare for everyone planning anything, and every business involving travel is just so backed up. Thanks FTC, for the article. -RC

In reply to This article couldn’t have by Rcope

In reply to I am also trying to recover a by pcgreen

In reply to I'm in the same situation. by Don't use your…

In reply to I am having the same problem by Frustrated

In reply to YesI I have the same by Disappointed

In reply to I am in the same boat. Is by Frequent flyer

In reply to same here !!! I don't know by Jslott

EastIcon May 01, 2020 What about car rentals? I booked a reservation for May 9 rental from Fox Car Rental in Florida before Covid-19 outbreak. I have no future plans to visit Florida, so I would not want to rebook for a future rental, as offered through their policy. My flight was cancelled, and my lodgings were cancelled without problem. I DO foresee a problem with Fox. What is my recourse, aside from loosing over $300? Anyone else in similar situation? How did you fare?

In reply to What about car rentals? I by EastIcon

Beverley Nalven May 01, 2020 I bought round trip tickets for my grand children to fly from Charlotte NC to JFK arriving at JFK on March 16, 2020 and returning on March 22, 2020. American will not refund the charge of $422.22 to my credit card and will only give the same passengers a credit for the same flight at a date 12 months from their original Flights. They won’t refund my money or give me back the credits This is unacceptable

In reply to I bought round trip tickets by Beverley Nalven

I went ahead and canceled my April 15th flight to NYC but, only after the following events: * Feb 29, first death here in WA. * March 8, cases reached 500 in US. * March 11, WHO said this is a Pandemic. * March 13, president declares national state of emergency. * March 15, US cases surpass 3000 * NY state closes all school. * CDC recommends no groups of >50 for next 8 weeks. * March 16: * President says to avoid groups >10 and avoid going to restaurants * President says to stop discretionary travel * March 20: NY declared epicenter of crisis with >5000 cases in city * March 21: NJ (EWR) gov issues stay-at-home order * March 23: WA gov issues stay-at-home order. * March 23 flight cancelled. * March 24, >50k cases and 637 deaths in US * March 23 & 24 ASA008 (same flight as mine) was cancelled. * March 24: White House warns people who have been to NY to quarantine themselves. >25k cases. * I finally cancelled on 24th But Alaska Airlines still insist on only credit! Insurance I purchased from Alianz Travel was useless (read Consumer Reports, next time).

Funnygirlon't … May 04, 2020 Jet Blue only offers credits By the time it is safe to travel. I may not be able to, due to age and health. The tickets were none refundable at time of purchase. The consumer loses again.

Client-of-Trav… May 01, 2020 What if someone used a travel agent? Do you recommend going back to the travel agency or to the hotel / airline / cruise line directly? I know several people who used a travel agent and they were able to help them when the airline wasn't even answering the phone. Someone else booked directly with an online site and when they couldn't reach anyone there, they randomly called up a travel agent who actually helped them even though the agent is not the one who had booked their trip in the first place. So, I suggest if someone try asking a travel agent if they are at a lost as what to do or not finding the answers they need.

Don't use your… May 01, 2020 My husband and I booked a cruise on Carnival Cruise Lines for Sept. We were to depart out of Seattle, then Covid19 showed up and we cancelled our trip. We had already paid the trip in full plus money for the 2 excursions. We did purchase the travel insurance. We asked for a refund and they said we were going to be penalized almost $500.00 for canceling. We still have not received our refund or money back for the excursions. What do we do now? Just keep on waiting? It has been almost 2 months since we canceled.

In reply to My husband and I booked a by Don't use your…

masterredfox May 01, 2020 I would be concerned with getting a refund/credit than becoming upset that travel plans have been overturned. There's always tomorrow to take a trip. Keep yourself posted via the site you booked and paid through.

Bruiser May 02, 2020 Had to cancel two trips on physicians orders (age & medical history). Also complied with CDC Guidelines for those conditions and Whitehouse COVD Task Force. Southwest, Hertz and hotel refunded costs. Only one refusing to refund was Allegiant Airlines who gave me Travel Voucher because it is their "Policy" as I purchased a non-refundable ticket. Well the same applied at Southwest but they did the right thing and refunded. What if I am not able to use and what if I did travel in future and it needed to be a location Allegiant does not serve? Allegiant asking for "Bailout" money but may end up keeping my money plus bailout. What a company!!!

In reply to Had to cancel two trips on by Bruiser

Mike May 04, 2020 You sure opened a can of worms! I had a ticket as non refundable. I get that if I want to change or anything else. But when they aren't flying and don't deliver the service, how can they refuse my refund? This is happening to me. I could have showed up at the airport and the flight wasn't flying but they won't give me a refund because its non refundable. United Airlines at its very best. FTC...we need you!!!

In reply to You sure opened a can of by Mike

In reply to Same! They tell me they by Affected perso…

PBGsoccermom May 05, 2020 Hoping that the parents who paid out almost $1000 for 5th grade safety patrol trip to Washington DC will get some kind of refund even with purchasing the insurance. Still waiting to hear from the school. :(

Erika Kral May 07, 2020 Airlines - you are writing about refund. In my understanding is refund getting money back. No one US airline is giving refund. All only credits, what for foreign travelers unacceptable. How to proceed? Thank you

Bleysu May 07, 2020 EF Tours is keeping $ for trips that they cancelled due to Covid19. Depending on the time of travel, patrons are losing at least 500-1000$ for a service that was never provided. Please help us get full refunds. Thank you.

In reply to EF Tours is keeping $ for by Bleysu

You can report a problem with a business at www.FTC.gov/Complaint. The information you give will go into a secure database that the FTC and other law enforcement agencies use for investigations.

The comments you put here on the blog don't go into the law enforcement database.

In reply to EF Go Ahead Tours is doing by rnmlburns

Jason May 08, 2020 We had flights with both Frontier and Spirit airlines. Spirit flight was supposed to be 3/25/20 & Frontier flight was 4/3/20. All traveling states involved had Executive Stay at Home Orders on the dates of travel. Both Frontier and Spirit have refused the numerous requests for refunds---saying flights are nonrefundable. Both flights were purchased prior to the pandemic. Neither airline will deny that they are receiving Federal funding but yet neither will refund us, the taxpaying consumer. So we follow the laws by not flying & the airlines get to keep our money and receive Federal bailout money on top of it all. SMH

RayK May 08, 2020 Overseas Adventure Travel is a tour company located in Boston that has, within the past 30 days, attempted to unlawfully, unilaterally, and retroactively, amend the Terms and Conditions of its booking contract in order to attempt to refuse issuing cash refunds and only issue vouchers for future travel (even when they canceled the trip). They are hiding behind a "no class action" provision and think that prevents any single person from effective action against them. Hence, FTC help is needed.

In reply to Overseas Adventure Travel is by RayK

You can report a problem with a business at www.FTC.gov/Complaint . The information you give will go into a secure database that the FTC and other law enforcement agencies use for investigations.

Man May 09, 2020 How does this rule impact the agencies that sell airline tickets. I purchased four international airline tickets (Air France) from Capital One travel. Now, I have called both Air France and Capital One. Air France folks are really nice and are willing to issue full refund but they asked me to call my agency (Capital One). I have called Capital One numerous times and is put on hold for 2+ hours before disconnecting my call. This has happened more than 5 times and I have lost 10+ hours just waiting. I need FTC help urgently to crack the whip on agencies like Capital One Travel.

MFaggiano May 12, 2020 I booked a timeshare for April 2019 that I had to cancel because of Covid 19. I was offered rebooking from July to December 2019. I can't travel within that time frame as advised by my endocrinologist. Since I never got a cancellation policy from the timeshare owner. I was told to sell my week to recover my costs. I didn't sign up for this but I made an effort. 4 people responded but wanted assurance that they would receive a full refund if they needed to cancel. I text messaged the owner and haven't received a response. Im out $1300. This is bad business! I will be exploring my options and not giving up!

Justyna May 12, 2020 My flight got canceled due to COVID 19. The ticket was purchased online via a third party/travel agency. While trying to get a refund for my trip, the travel agency wants me to approve to cancel my ticket and agree to pay them a refund processing fee. Wondering if that is something they can require...?

Annie May 15, 2020 YMT Vacations is keeping $ for trips that they cancelled due to Covid19. Our group of 6 losing at least $300 each for a service that was never provided. FTC - Please help us get full refunds. Thank you

In reply to YMT Vacations is keeping $ by Annie

Neib12 May 16, 2020 I booked an AmaWaterways river cruise for July 19. AmaWaterways cancelled the cruise and will refund the payments I had made. But what about the flights? Turkish Airlines is offering a voucher that must be used by early 2021 which won’t work since I have a teaching position and can’t travel at that time. I do have travel insurance ....

Another canceled tour, another customer who wants a refund — not a credit | Travel Troubleshooter

After Overseas Adventure Travel cancels Sandy Hain’s Morocco tour, it offers a credit. He wants a refund. Is the company required to return his money? 

Q : I’d like some advice for obtaining a refund for a trip to Morocco my wife and I booked with Overseas Adventure Travel (OAT). We originally scheduled for April of 2020. OAT canceled the trip in March 2020. At that time, OAT offered either a full refund or incentives to rebook the trip or opt for other future trips. We had until May 1 to decide. 

But before May 1, we asked about a refund, and a representative told us that was no longer an option. OAT booked us on a future trip instead. 

I recently read that Overseas Adventure Travel was required to honor my request for a refund under Massachusetts law. I contacted OAT late last year and again asked for a refund. A representative told me it would take 30 to 90 days. I called them in January and a representative told me it would take 30 to 90 business days. I’ve reviewed the Massachusetts Travel Seller law and saw that refunds should be made within 30 days.  

OAT has been a fantastic company for the past two tours we have taken with them, but now I am worried our $9,864 they agreed to refund will disappear. Any advice or efforts on your part are greatly appreciated. — Sandy Hain, Palo Alto, California

A : You’re absolutely correct that the Massachusetts Travel Seller law (940 Mass. Reg. 15.06) requires a full refund. And since Overseas Adventure Travel is based in Boston, it must return your money. Its May 1 deadline is irrelevant.

I’m dealing with a lot of Overseas Adventure Travel cases at the moment. It seems the company strongly encouraged customers to accept a credit — maybe a little too strongly. I mean, it should have at least waited until its own deadline before telling you that you had to take the credit.

I’ve said this before, and I’ll say it again: If you can give your tour operator an opportunity to reschedule your trip, you should. Companies like OAT are struggling amid a difficult pandemic. You mentioned to me that your previous two OAT tours were terrific. What better way to ensure the company survives than giving it your business?

But you shouldn’t have to do that, and the state of Massachusetts agrees. So this is really an open-shut case. You get a refund. Period.

If anyone else is having a problem with getting a refund from Overseas Adventure Travel, I list the names, numbers and email addresses of its executives on my consumer advocacy website, Elliott.org . I recommend sending a brief, polite email citing 940 Mass. Reg. 15.06 and requesting a refund within 30 days. If that doesn’t work, you can file a complaint with the Massachusetts attorney general — or with me.

I contacted Overseas Adventure Travel on your behalf. It issued an immediate refund.

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Help! It’s Been More Than 2 Years and I Still Don’t Have the Refund

Our columnist has received many reader emails complaining of tour operators and travel agencies dragging their feet on refunds for trips or other services. He investigates a $334 fare with Euro Railways.

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By Seth Kugel

Dear Tripped Up,

When the pandemic broke out in March 2020, my wife and I cut short a trip to Norway, changing flights and canceling reservations that included a train ride from Bergen to Oslo that we had booked using Euro Railways. All the other vendors reimbursed us long ago, but we still haven’t received the $334 we’re owed from Euro Railways. In August 2020, the company’s director, Tom Louis, wrote to “ask our creditors for time to reorganize our finances” to avoid declaring bankruptcy. Fair enough. But since then, they have not responded to our emails. Any help would be very much appreciated. Douglas in Richfield, Minn.

Dear Douglas,

I can’t say I’m surprised you never heard back from Tom Louis at Euro Railways, because from researching your issue, I suspect he never existed. In fact, the Euro Railways company no longer exists, either. The travel agency once registered in Coral Gables, Fla., went out of business in 2020, according to its former owner, Washington Cunha, whom I communicated with over email from his home in Brazil.

Beginning in August, Mr. Cunha wrote, the company will try to restart its business and gradually reimburse or refund money to customers. He added that the company was “really sorry” for the inconvenience. (Mr. Cunha would not say whether Mr. Louis was a real person, but I combed through many documents about the company and saw no sign of him, nor is there any trace of him on LinkedIn or the company’s social media; his writing style in the email you passed along contained grammatical errors similar to Mr. Cunha’s.)

If he is true to his word, there is a chance that you might eventually get your money back.

That said, I wouldn’t get your hopes up, as I’ll explain soon. But before we get into the nitty-gritty of your issue, your email was one of many I received complaining of tour operators and travel agencies dragging their feet on refunds for trips or other services canceled because of the pandemic.

In many cases, travel companies refunded their clients speedily; others never did. But while it is worth noting that the massive wave of cancellations that pummeled the travel industry in early 2020 caused vexing problems for all, third parties like travel agencies that serve as middlemen were hurt especially. These companies were waiting on refunds from railways, airlines, hotels and car rental agencies, and were thus faced with the challenge — as Mr. Cunha lamented to me — of getting repaid to be able to refund their own customers. Cash flow issues could become overwhelming, and sometimes it’s even more complicated than that, as agencies must follow the widely varying cancellation, credit and refund policies of the companies they buy from, and interpret those for the consumer .

Many smaller agencies, like Euro Railways, succumbed to the financial pressure and closed. Mr. Cunha told me that his staff had honored 68 percent of refund requests from customers despite rail companies — like Spain’s Renfe and Germany’s DB, he said — only honoring 23 percent of refund requests from Euro Railways. Mr. Cunha noted that in many cases he had received credit from the companies for future train travel but reimbursed customers in cash. (When I separately contacted these rail companies, a Renfe representative said all tickets had been refunded regardless of conditions and DB did not respond to a request for comment.) That left Euro Railways with a negative cash flow, Mr. Cunha said, even as it still owes $128,000 to people like you.

If that is true, you had particularly bad luck. Age-Christoffer Lundeby, the communication manager for Vy, the Norwegian rail company that runs the Bergen to Oslo trains, sent me documentation showing Vy had refunded Euro Railways for the value of your tickets, money that obviously never made it to you.

Unfortunately, you are not the first person to have problems with Euro Railways. The company has a history of complaints online, from this TripAdvisor thread that began 10 years ago to those registered with the Better Business Bureau . The state of Florida administratively dissolved Euro Railways in 2018 for failing to provide an annual report, and never reinstated it in the two years or so before Mr. Cunha stopped operating.

And perhaps most glaringly, in 2020, Euro Railways was sued by Rail Europe , a major player in rail tickets — it brought the Eurail pass to the United States in 1959 — for which Euro Railways was an affiliated agent. Rail Europe claimed Mr. Cunha’s company owed them $38,000 that Mr. Cunha had agreed in writing to pay in 2018. In 2021, a Broward County judge issued a default judgment against Euro Railways, ordering Mr. Cunha to pay more than $40,000. Neither Rail Europe nor Mr. Cunha would say whether that debt was ever settled, but Mr. Cunha wrote: “I can assure you we were the ones harmed in a unilateral breach of business relationship.”

I tried to follow up, and also broached the topic of whether Tom Louis was a real person. That appeared to be the last straw, and Mr. Cunha switched to Portuguese (which he knew I spoke), telling me to “go scare a pig,” a Brazilian equivalent of “go fly a kite” or “go jump in a lake.” He did not respond to subsequent emails.

So, alas, I couldn’t recover your money, but your story does shed light on two often confusing issues that could help fellow travelers: how to reserve train tickets in Europe, and what to do if you can’t get a refund.

For the train ticket question, I turned to Mark Smith, who founded the wonderfully obsessive train website Seat61.com . He said there’s really no need to use middlemen like Euro Railways. Instead, Google the train operator in the country where your journey starts and book directly through them.

“Ignore absolutely everything with the letters ‘ad’ in front of it,” Mr. Smith said, and go straight to the organic results. “You’ll save hours of your life by doing that.”

If you run into trouble — some European operators English-language sites are easier to navigate than others — try booking with the operator in the country where your journey ends, although then you won’t be able to get tickets printed at your station of departure so, be sure you get an e-ticket.

Mr. Smith also said that if you run into any problems, or need to book for multiple countries, use either Rail Europe or Trainline , which he found to be reliable third-party sites with reasonable fees that work with many, but not all, European rail companies.

And for those still running into obstacles pursuing refunds because of the pandemic, here’s what I’ve discovered:

First, be sure you’re right. Occasionally, travelers book for the wrong date, overlook an email with an important change or opt out of insurance and then instinctively blame the company. (And by “travelers” I mean me.)

If you are right, start by exhausting all efforts with the company itself, always being firm but polite, and doing as much as you can in writing.

Then, turn to online reviews or discussion boards. You may or may not elicit a company response, but even if you don’t, you’ll be warning others about your experience. Be fair and rational — instead of venting, give a precise, detailed account of what happened.

Another option is to register a complaint with the Better Business Bureau, or with the attorney general of the state where the business is based.

Results may vary, but after receiving multiple complaints about the Boston-based Overseas Adventure Travel regarding pandemic refunds — as my predecessor, Sarah Firshein also had — I took one complainant’s advice and called the Massachusetts attorney general’s office.

Roxana Martinez-Gracias, a spokeswoman, told me that since January 2020, the A.G.’s office had received more than 950 complaints about the company and that “the majority” had to do with pandemic cancellations. The Consumer Advocacy and Response Division of the A.G.’s office has recovered more than $9.1 million from Overseas Adventure Travel, and nearly $4 million from other travel companies.

When I asked for a response from the company, I received a statement from Ann Shannon, a spokeswoman.

“The Covid-19 pandemic has created extraordinary, ongoing challenges for the travel industry,” she wrote in an email. “We continue to respond as quickly as possible to all travelers with refund requests under the circumstances.”

An underwhelming response, but at least she didn’t tell me to go scare a pig.

If you need advice about a best-laid travel plan that went awry, send an email to [email protected] .

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Travel | can overseas adventure travel change its mind about giving me a refund travel troubleshooter investigates..

When Overseas Adventure Travel cancels John Gardner’s cruise to Italy, Croatia and Greece, it offers him a full refund. But then it changes its mind. Can it do that? And does it get to keep his $30,000?

Q: My wife and I were scheduled to go on an Overseas Adventure Travel cruise to the Dalmatian Coast and Greece this spring. OAT canceled the trip because of the coronavirus. It offered to either rebook another tour and receive $500 per person or receive a full refund.

We chose a refund. Two weeks later, an OAT representative called and said they “changed their mind.” No refunds would be available. We could either rebook or get a voucher.

Although I have sent many emails and have had three subsequent phone calls, OAT will not give us a refund. We are hoping that you can help us get our $30,000 back. — John Gardner, Lakewood, Wash.

A: I’m sorry that Overseas Adventure Travel canceled your cruise. I think you and your wife would have had a great adventure in Italy, Croatia and Greece. OAT did the right thing by canceling your cruise. It wasn’t safe to travel.

But your case has absolutely nothing to do with coronavirus. OAT sent you not one, but two emails offering a refund. You accepted the refund. Case closed.

You can’t revise an offer like that. Once you put it in writing, you have to honor it.

Now, that’s not to say I’m unsympathetic to OAT’s position. Like other travel companies, it’s facing an apocalyptic event. The cruise industry is particularly hard-hit by all the COVID-19 cancellations. I can understand why it would prefer to offer you a voucher.

But a deal’s a deal. You could have appealed your case to someone higher up at Overseas Adventure Travel. I list the names, numbers and email addresses of the executives at Grand Circle Travel, which owns OAT, on my consumer advocacy site, Elliott.org . A brief, polite email to one of them would have probably shaken a refund loose.

And if that didn’t work? I might have contacted your credit card company. OAT’s email offering a refund would have made your credit-card dispute an easy win. Alternatively, you could have filed a case in small claims court, although you would have had to limit your claim to $5,000.

I contacted Overseas Adventure Travel on your behalf. It refunded the $30,000, as promised.

If you need help with a coronavirus-related refund, please contact me. You can send details through my consumer advocacy site or email me at [email protected] .

Christopher Elliott is the chief advocacy officer of Elliott Advocacy, a nonprofit organization that helps consumers resolve their problems. Contact him at elliott.org/help or [email protected] .

(c) 2020 Christopher Elliott

Distributed by King Features Syndicate, Inc.

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What the Future of Adventure Travel Looks Like

Travel is poised to make a strong comeback, according to experts. We talked to guides, company founders, flight specialists, and industry veterans to determine how getting out in the world will change post-pandemic.

Heading out the door? Read this article on the Outside app available now on iOS devices for members! >","name":"in-content-cta","type":"link"}}'>Download the app .

If there’s one thing that the travel experts we talked to agree on, it’s that the future of adventure travel is bright despite the unprecedented challenges presented by the global pandemic. “There is nothing in my 35 years in the adventure travel business that comes close to this,” says Ben Bressler, CEO of the sustainable-travel company Natural Habitat Adventures . “But if 9/11, SARS, and the financial collapse of 2008 taught us anything, it’s that adapting quickly is vital, and that we’ll come out the other end more resilient.”

That’s especially the case for adventure travel, which by its very nature has all the makings of a post-pandemic antidote, with its focus on small group outings, less touristed destinations, and wide-open spaces. According to an ongoing survey by Destination Analysts, a tourism research and marketing firm, more than half of American travelers say they plan to avoid crowded destinations   once the bulk of restrictions have eased.

What can we expect from the next few months and beyond? Our sources acknowledge that it’s impossible to be certain about anything as we experiment with a new normal, and they note that if a second wave of COVID-19 hits, travel rollbacks will occur. Our return to travel will depend on a variety of factors, including “when economies and borders reopen, how businesses change their operations, whether airlines provide rapid COVID-19 testing, and, ultimately, when a vaccine may become available,” says Sandy Cunningham, a longtime adventure travel outfitter and the cofounder of Outside GO , Outside ’s travel company.

Mounting findings show that travelers are ready to get out there once it’s safe to do so. A recent report by Skift Research, the data-analysis arm of the travel trade publication, found that “one-third of Americans in our survey indicated they would start to travel within three months after travel restrictions are lifted.” Most of our experts agreed that just as states and countries are now practicing phased reopenings, travel will probably mirror that process, initially with more close-to-home excursions, camping, and road trips, then domestic air travel, eventually followed by international travel. The first steps are already underway as national parks , beaches, and other parts of the country begin to reopen.

Many also noted that their clients have chosen to postpone trips rather than cancel them, indicating that once it’s safe to try the waters, they will. Such postponements have helped some outfitters stay afloat during this time. Outfitters are also seeing an increase in new bookings for the future.

Meanwhile, there’s hope that travelers will venture out in more thoughtful and sustainable ways. “We have the opportunity to enact change that perhaps we never felt the freedom to do before,” says Shannon Stowell, president of the Adventure Travel Trade Association (ATTA). “If there was ever a time to rebuild right, the world has the opportunity.” 

From new health and safety protocols to a spike in more meaningful bucket-list trips, here’s how our experts predict travel will change going forward. 

Adventure travel will be the first to return. 

“Adventure travelers are by nature more intrepid, more willing to make the sacrifices needed to experience the extraordinary, and they will likely lead the way,” says Richard Bangs, cofounder of the adventure company MT Sobek and the travel app Steller , and a member of Expedia ’s founding team. Stowell agrees: “Some of the aspects of adventure travel mean that it will be a more attractive option than ever. Enclosed places like mass-tourism resorts and packed tourist sites will be much less so.”

MT Sobek’s future bookings reflect travelers seeking more remote destinations, with increased interest in Alaska and chartered raft trips. To cater to this demand, the company also recently launched a series of private trips to national parks and other domestic wilderness areas.

Intrepid Travel , the largest small-group adventure company in the world, is noticing a similar turn toward these types of trips. “From our North American customers specifically, we’re seeing a surge in interest for active tours that include outdoor experiences like trekking, hiking, and cycling,” says its CEO, James Thornton. 

James Sano, vice president of travel, tourism, and conservation at the World Wildlife Fund , who has 35 years of experience in the industry, says he has witnessed the repeated return of adventure travelers after past disruptions like SARS. “They’re often early adopters, and their tolerance for risk is greater,” he says. “I think they’re going to be on the leading edge.” 

The first wave will be a return to local and domestic travel, with an emphasis on camping and road trips.

Our experts all agree on how travel will open up, but the timing remains uncertain. Put more simply, Bangs refers to a quote from novelist William Goldman about the movie business: “Nobody knows nothing.” Bangs anticipates the return in stages: “One: explore where we live. Two: take road trips to nearby state parks and beaches. Three: go on interstate road trips to national parks, river trips, and hikes. Four: make short, domestic air trips to wilderness destinations. Five: international travel.” For many states and national parks that have begun phased reopenings, the first two steps have already commenced.

Phase three may present some challenges. Travelers will have to stay on top of the news and follow federal and state health precautions. But this hasn’t stopped road-trippers from planning—there’s been a spike in bookings at Outdoorsy , an RV rental service. “We have seen our average daily bookings grow at an encouraging rate of 450 percent since April 1 and more traffic to our website than the year before,” says Jeff Cavins, its CEO, who is working closely with RV owners to implement new cleaning practices. “Once it’s safe to get out there, I think people will have a strong desire to control the cleanliness and safety of their environment, give themselves distance, and not have to worry about security lines, cramped seating, or crowded places.” RV Share , an Airbnb-like RV-rental marketplace, recently announced the highest recorded bookings since its founding—a 650 percent rise since the start of April.

Camping is positioned to become even more popular following lockdown restrictions. A recent KOA  survey found that camping is likely to account for 16 percent of leisure trips post-pandemic, compared to 11 percent recorded before. The report also indicates that the lockdown could create a new class of campers, as 32 percent of leisure travelers who’ve never camped before expressed interest in starting. Campers are also planning to venture out responsibly—70 percent said that they plan to camp close to home, and 68 percent are willing to travel to less popular locations to avoid overcrowding. 

Camping and road trips are also more viable when many of us are dealing with financial uncertainty. “A critical factor the travel industry as a whole will have to consider in coming months is that many people have lost their jobs or had to take pay cuts during this time, so far-flung travel may not be feasible,” says Cavins of Outdoorsy. Of the prospective campers surveyed in the KOA report, 41 percent noted that they were most interested in its affordability.

Then we’ll start flying again.

Next will come domestic air travel, with adventurers seeking off-the-grid, wilderness destinations for both DIY and small organized group trips. “Guided activities provide an opportunity for an adventure without assuming some of the risk that comes with independent ventures,” says Alex Kosseff, executive director of the American Mountain Guides Association . While its approximately 6,000 guides and instructors experienced mass cancellations this spring, they’re hopeful for a big comeback once it’s safe to travel domestically. 

As for international travel, outfitters are noticing a scheduling trend among clients. Intrepid Travel’s Thornton says that “May 2021 is the most popular time frame for rebooking trips, which is generally a longer booking window than we’re used to seeing. Those making new international bookings are planning to travel a little earlier, with the majority in March 2021.” Meanwhile, a few countries, like Iceland, Vietnam, and Greece, plan to reopen their borders in mid-June.

Scott Keyes, founder of the flight-deals newsletter Scott’s Cheap Flights , believes that until there’s a definitive breakthrough—whether that’s a vaccine or herd immunity is achieved—travel will return sporadically. “There won’t be an all-clear signal like the end of a fire drill,” he says. “Instead, certain places will open before others, and some places will likely go through waves of opening and closing.”

T here will be a spike in bucket-list trips. 

What most of us have been missing during this time aren’t material things. We’re missing experiences. “That trip you’ve been telling yourself for six years you’re going to take but just haven’t yet? More people are going to make those trips happen when we feel safe to travel again,” says Daniel Houghton, the former CEO of Lonely Planet and the author of Wherever You Go: A Guide to Mindful, Sustainable, and Life-Changing Travel . According to a recent survey of 2,200 travelers in the U.S., the UK, and Australia conducted by the booking site Skyscanner, “ Bucket-list travel is high on the agenda, with 80 percent of Americans likely to travel to their dream destination once restrictions are lifted.”

This is reflected in the most popular destinations for rebookings and new bookings. “The demand we’re seeing indicates a desire for remote places with natural surroundings, while also checking off bucket-list experiences,” says Thornton. His company is seeing most of its rebookings for Peru, Ecuador, Antarctica, Greece, and Japan and most of its new bookings for Antarctica, Ecuador, Peru, Egypt, and Morocco, in order of popularity. Similarly, Outside GO is seeing the most interest in Alaska and British Columbia this summer and fall and New Zealand in 2021.

Now is also a good time to mark your calendars for those hard-to-get permit-only adventures that need to be booked up to a year in advance. 

And there will be deals .

“When it’s safe to do so, I’m not sure there will be a better time to be a budget traveler,” says Houghton. “The industry has been hit hard, and when the time is right, trips we once only dreamed of being able to afford could be in reach.” That’s especially the case with flights, as airlines continue to slash future fares to encourage travelers to buy now for trips down the line.

According to Brian Kelly, CEO and founder of the Points Guy , a travel website focused on loyalty and credit-card programs, “Now is a great time to start planning trips for a post-coronavirus world.” Kelly has been seeing airlines offering fares for less than $100 to the Caribbean, wide-open date ranges for award tickets to Europe for the winter holidays, and first-class tickets to Japan for just 55,000 miles in January 2021. 

There’s also been a 40 percent surge of what Keyes of Scott’s Cheap Flights calls “mistake fares”: when technical glitches cause airlines to post fares at huge discounts. “With airlines doing major surgery to their schedules, one side effect has been a spike in the number of mistake fares,” says Keyes, who saw a $210 round-trip flight from Los Angeles to Santiago, Chile. 

But before you jump on any deals , be sure to closely read the terms of an airline’s change and cancellation policy and look into cancel-for-any-reason travel insurance .

Airlines won’t be the only place to find deals, either. Visit Sicily  recently announced that it will cover half the cost of a traveler’s airfare and a portion of their hotel stay to inspire tourists to return to the Italian island. And some hotel chains are offering ways travelers can spend now to travel later, which helps keep hotel staff paid or on health care. Cayuga Collections, a group of sustainable hotels in Central America, is offering a green bond program , in which your investment in a future stay now will double in value when you’re ready to book. Other travel deals are likely forthcoming.

We’ll want to spend quality time with friends and family.

“With so many people forced to be separate from friends and family, we anticipate travelers wanting to make up for lost time with loved ones through meaningful experiences,” says Allison Fleece, cofounder of Whoa Travel , an adventure travel company that caters to women. “The pandemic age we’re living in is teaching us all about what’s important in our lives and how fragile life can be, and we think that will be reenforced by people’s travel decisions.”

Multigenerational trips will be a popular choice post-lockdown. “Reconnecting has become a huge part of our pause, and what better way than doing so with all our loved ones in safe, wild places,” says Cunningham of Outside GO. In fact, the glamping operator Collective Retreats  has seen an “uptick in inquiries for smaller weddings and elopements, as well as delayed birthday and anniversary celebrations,” says Peter Mack, its CEO.

We’ll use travel agents and outfitters more often. 

When thousands of Americans got stranded overseas as lockdowns quickly closed international borders, those who had a travel agent or an outfitter to lean on had a much easier time getting home than those who didn’t. 

“When the COVID-19 crisis began, our first priority was ensuring the safety of our customers and workers around the world,” says Intrepid Travel’s Thornton. “Our local tour leaders and global-operations team worked around the clock to help more than 3,000 travelers get home safely as borders were closing.” Outside GO also went into emergency mode: “From getting clients safely evacuated out of countries before lockdowns went into effect and advocating on their behalf with travel-insurance companies to working with our ground partners to offer refunds for unused portions of trips cut short, our team worked long and hard to get this all done,” says Cunningham.

“There has been so much frustration for so many people who booked through online services, with recordings that lead to nowhere,” Cunningham adds. “Human-to-human contact is more important than ever going forward.”

Because the travel landscape will look very different for a while, and information found via online sources in forums and other places may be out of date, a travel agent or outfitter will have more accurate information about access, businesses that are open, and where it’s safest to go to avoid crowds.

Outfitters are building closer relationships with clients right now, sharing memories of past trips and dreaming about future ones. “We make regular outreaches with imagery and stories to keep our guests and potential guests dreaming,” says MT Sobek’s Bangs. There’s also been a bonding within the travel industry itself, with outfitters supporting each other. The ATTA has been bringing outfitters together through online seminars, and on May 26, it will launch a free community membership for financially compromised companies, laid-off employees, and others wanting to try out the organization to stay connected. (This link will be live on May 26 for those interested in signing up.) 

It might take longer than ever to get through an airport.

If you thought it took a long time before COVID-19, post-pandemic travel could be even more intense. “After 9/11, many new security measures were implemented, such as the introduction of TSA, bulletproof and locked cockpits, and the requirement of government-issued identification,” says the Points Guy’s Kelly. “The impact of COVID-19 will most likely lead to new health-based policies, such as boarding smaller groups of people at a time, requiring the sanitization of seats, and even eliminating seat-back pockets.”

While most airlines have already increased plane sanitation and require crew and travelers to wear masks, the FAA has yet to enforce any industry-wide regulations. This has resulted in an uneven response from domestic airlines, ranging from Alaska Air blocking off middle seats on large planes to other airlines announcing potential temperature screenings for passengers before boarding. 

Certain airlines have led the charge in instituting pre-boarding health screenings. “Emirates is already offering rapid-result COVID-19 testing ,” says Cunningham. The airline has plans to expand that testing to all flights departing to countries that require arriving passengers be screened.

Many of us will remember the yellow card, a now defunct pamphlet issued by the World Health Organization in which a traveler’s vaccination dates were recorded. “For a big part of my career, certain countries required vaccinations for diseases like yellow fever, tetanus, and typhoid and as part of the entry process would ask you to produce your yellow book,” says Sano of the World Wildlife Fund. “I could easily envision a digital version of this, like a QR code, where you have electronic proof that you have been vaccinated.”

A similar movement is gaining momentum in the form of “immunity passports” that would be issued to those who have recovered from the virus and may have antibodies. According to CNBC, during a first-quarter-earnings call on April 22, Delta CEO Ed Bastian indicated that the airline was considering instituting a number of measures, including immunity passports. “Could there be a new public-health agency coming out that requires a new passport to travel?” he asked. “We’ll be on the forefront of all those advances.”

Chile has already started issuing health passports, while other countries, including the UK, Germany, and Italy, are considering doing so. (It’s important to note that a number of health organizations have said not enough is yet known about the immunity of those who have recovered from the novel coronavirus.) 

When it comes to the future of airports, Puerto Rico’s Luis Muñoz Marín International Airport and Vienna International Airport are good indicators of what to expect. Luis Muñoz Marín has installed thermal-imaging cameras that screen passengers upon arrival for temperatures above 100.3 degrees Fahrenheit. Those who exceed that threshold   and   show symptoms will be evaluated and quarantined. Meanwhile, travelers arriving in Vienna will get a swab test for COVID-19 that will be processed within three hours and cost $204. Those who test negative will be given a certificate and allowed to move freely, and those who test positive will be subject to a 14-day quarantine. Biometric check-ins, TSA appointments, and barring non-passengers from entering airports are among the other protocols that could be implemented.

Travel companies will rethink their approach to health and safety.

Adventure travel outfitters are using this time to revamp their protocols. At Backroads , a company that specializes in bike tours, that means “enhancing safety training for trip leaders and working with hotel, restaurant, transport operators, and other vendors to abide by rigorous enhanced safety protocols for cleaning rooms, handling baggage, and preparing food, among others,” says CEO Tom Hale. He adds that “prior to the trip start, our guests will be asked to run through a pre-trip health screening to make sure we’ve done all we can to ensure that they’re good to go.”

Intrepid Travel will consider implementing similar steps in addition to “contactless check-in processes and increased transparency on hygiene,” Thornton says. Kathryn Walsh, founder of the expedition company Backpack Alaska , says they will begin “making single tents available for everyone, including a final bleach-solution rinse on the dishes after meals and individually packaging food to prevent cross contamination, to name a few.” And OARS , known for its whitewater-rafting and sea-kayaking trips, plans to conduct “guide and guest screenings before trips, enforce PPE when applicable, and give heightened attention to handwashing and the sanitation of vehicles and communal surfaces,” according to Steve Markle, the brand’s vice president of sales and marketing.

Host-driven rental companies have had to rethink their protocols as well. On May 1, Airbnb launched an initiative that will certify hosts who practice its new cleaning guidelines (developed in partnership with former U.S. surgeon general Vivek Murthy) and implement a minimum 24-hour waiting period between bookings. For hosts who can’t abide by the guidelines, the company has suggested waiting 72 hours from when the rental was last occupied before hosting new guests. Others, like the camping-booking site Hipcamp, have sent out recommendations to hosts on new cleaning and guest-interaction protocols. Hipcamp CEO Alyssa Ravasio says it has also “added an extra step to our booking flow where all Hipcampers have to check a box to self-certify their booking doesn’t violate any local regulations or travel bans.”  

Glamping operators are poised to make a quick comeback due to the nature of their lodging setups. “Unlike traditional hotels or accommodation rentals, our air-handling systems consist of fresh air, our hotel lobbies are big canvas tents, and our hallways are winding paths through open fields and natural landscapes,” says Collective Retreats’ Mack. The company operates five locations across the country. “Over the past few months, we’ve continued to operate our retreat in Austin, Texas, and have started selling out many weekends,” he says. “At Collective Governors Island, in New York, we’ve had under ten cancellations post July 4, and for August, September, and October, we’re currently projected to be ahead of where we were last year at this time.”

Under Canvas , which operates luxury tent sites just outside national parks, is set to open its Great Smoky Mountains location on May 28, followed by Zion and Moab  on June 4, then Grand Canyon and Yellowstone on June 11. Each site will abide by its location’s reopening policies. Individual check-in via a touchscreen kiosk, takeout food and beverages for in-tent dining, and hand-sanitizing stations throughout camp are among the new precautions the company is implementing.

Travel will change for the better.

Our experts agreed that travel will become more intentional going forward. “We definitely think people will be more appreciative and attracted to meaningful experiences, responsibility, the environment, and moments that bring people together to learn and grow from each other in the post-pandemic world,” says Whoa Travel’s Allison Fleece. Walsh of Backpack Alaska agrees: “I know I’ve fooled myself before in thinking that substance would spontaneously arrive out of traveling to a far-flung destination that sounded exotic. This pandemic has highlighted that many people are craving something real and lasting.” 

Others noted that this time could lead to both travelers and travel companies prioritizing sustainability and ethics. “I think there will be a thinning of mass tourism, a thinning of meaningless experiences. People will be looking for deeper experiences and less instant-gratification tourism,” says Outside GO’s Cunningham. Stowell of the ATTA recalls what Canadian astrophysicist Hubert Reeves said at the association’s 2009 summit about climate change: “I’m not optimistic, I’m not pessimistic, I’m determined.” Stowell adds: “We at ATTA and in our community are determined to see travel done better. In terms of some of the more destructive types of tourism, those should be reimagined and rebuilt entirely to start being healthy for destinations. Now is the time for destinations to take charge and demand that tourism be helpful to their environmental efforts and supportive of locals instead of harmful or exploitative.”

Many companies are already looking at how they can recover in a way that’s more sustainable, which the World Wildlife Fund’s Sano says could turn out to be more profitable. “As we’ve been able to see from the impact this pandemic has had on the environment, travelers will likely be more aware of their impact than ever before,” he says. Hipcamp’s Ravasio adds: “In moments like this, where it has become incredibly clear that we are all connected, travel provides us with an opportunity to practice empathy. How can I respect and take care of this community that I am visiting?”

All see a promising future. “I’m more hopeful for the future of travel than I’ve ever been,” says Daniel Houghton. “Travel offers something you can’t fake or create at home. All the things that we long for in quarantine—fresh air, places we’ve never been, having dinner with people we just met—these are travel’s finest qualities that are endlessly available, no matter where you find yourself on the planet.”

MT Sobek’s Bangs emphasizes that travel always comes back: “This passion for adventure does not go away or flatten with time. It is a fundamental desire, a curiosity itch, and when the road opens, there will be travelers, top down, full speed ahead.”

Deputy Editor Mary Turner and Assistant Editor Kaelyn Lynch contributed to the reporting of this article.

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Ronit Austgen and her family love taking lengthy annual summer trips and last year planned to visit Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia. Instead, they went on a five-day biking trip in central California, several hundred miles from their home in San Diego.

This year Austgen, 56, hopes she, her husband, and three children -- all vaccinated -- can travel to the Galapagos Islands. Planning has not been easy, but Austgen is forging ahead, spurred on by a long-time desire to go there, lower costs for some parts of the trip and more flexible cancellation and change policies.

Nancy Scott, 76, has also always been an adventurous traveler, enjoying trips to Bhutan, Croatia, India, Jordan and Morocco. After spending the year at her home in Newport, R.I., she is eagerly anticipating her next foreign destination. But unlike Austgen, she is staying put until 2022. "I have nothing on the books," Scott says. "I'm fully vaccinated, but for this year I'm just kind of waiting. I'm not so concerned about myself, but about what governments are doing." What if a country is open one day and shuts down the next, she says.

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With additional outbreaks of the virus likely in some countries, her concerns are valid. In fact, many of her fellow travelers share her hesitation. More Americans than usual plan to travel only within the United States this year, and after a disastrous 2020, the U.S. travel industry is keen to cater to them.

Searches for travel this summer leaned 66% domestic and 34% international, according to research by Hopper, a mobile app that tracks flights and hotels for the best deals. Before COVID-19, this split was typically 52% domestic and 48% international. "Europe has been a moving target, and with relatively low vaccination rates, I see restrictions," says Nick Ewen, senior editor of travel website The Points Guy. Instead, "we're seeing a huge increase in leisure markets such as Colorado, Utah, Florida, Hawaii and national parks."

U.S. airports are certainly getting busier. "The vaccination forced a huge spike in demand in leisure travel, and airlines are ramping up their operations," Ewen says. As of mid-May -- just after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said vaccinated people don't need to wear masks in most places -- 1.7 million travelers had passed through TSA checkpoints this year. That's about seven times higher than for all of 2020, though still a million fewer people than in May 2019.

Avoid the Summer Travel Rush; Plan a Fall Getaway

Fewer Bargains, More Flexibility

Last year, when most people were reluctant to fly or stay in hotels, rates were tantalizingly low. But as the industry bounces back, bargains are getting harder to find. "People shouldn't expect great deals," says Elizabeth Blount McCormick, president of Uniglobe Travel Designers, a travel management company.

Domestic airline prices are largely back to where they were prepandemic with one big exception: Almost all carriers are waiving the fees for canceling or changing a flight. Those fees sometimes came to hundreds of dollars. That policy should continue at least until the end of the year, predicts Ewen, adding that some airlines are thinking of eliminating the fees permanently.

Because you won't have change fees to consider, book a flight with a reasonable fare as soon as possible, and then set a Google Flights alert to notify you if the price drops. Then you can rebook at the cheaper fare, although you will typically get credit with the airline, not cash, for the difference in cost. If you need to cancel completely, you will most likely get a voucher for that airline that is good for at least a year.

Airlines are still scrambling to figure out how many planes they need to bring back into service and where. Because of that, some flights may be combined or canceled. If your flight is canceled by the airline or a new time no longer works for your schedule, your money should be refunded. With limited demand for international travel, some airlines are flying their widebody jets, typically used for overseas flights, cross-country with their lie-flat seats in business and first class. It might be worth an upgrade to enjoy that perk, especially if you have frequent flyer points to spare.

Hotel rooms may be a little cheaper than prepandemic. Room rates won't hit 2019 levels until 2025, according to Jan Freitag, an analyst specializing in hospitality for the CoStar Group. He warns that in places with high tourist demand, like Miami or Hawaii, hotel rates will recover faster. Several trends in the hotel industry that either began or grew during the pandemic are likely here to stay. Guests should expect to use a smartphone app for just about everything, from checking in to opening a room door to ordering more towels. Hotels that offered free breakfasts often now provide a "to-go" choice along with the typical buffet. Lower-end hotels may continue to only clean rooms after checkout. "If you have a multinight stay, you may have to request cleaning and be charged for it," Freitag says.

Vacation home and Airbnb rentals are also rebounding. Airbnb reported that its first-quarter revenue this year was higher than in 2019, due mainly to greater interest from those who are at least 60 years old or from families, many of whom have been separated for more than a year and want to combine a reunion with a vacation. "Older people were so cautious last year, they didn't leave their house and so saved money," Freitag says. "Now, as long as they have gotten their shots fairly quickly, they want to see their grandchildren. So they're getting suites with connecting rooms or villas."

Family holiday bookings at Club Med resorts in North America, the Caribbean and Mexico for the 2021-2022 holiday season have increased 47% compared with 2019, according to a Club Med spokeswoman. Through Dec. 16, Club Med is offering full refunds if you cancel up to 15 days before traveling.

Experts warn that one part of travel most people leave until the end of their planning should be moved to the forefront: renting a car . During the pandemic, many companies sold off 30% to 40% of their fleets. A global shortage of computer chips needed to manufacture cars has made it harder to buy new ones, exacerbating the problem with rentals. As a result, prices have skyrocketed and availability has plummeted. Compact cars that once cost $30 a day can run $100 per day or more now, Ewen says. "You're seeing huge increases in price and long lines at car rental companies, and I don't see that going away into the fall."

Book the rental car before planning the rest of your trip. You don't want to find out after booking your flight and lodging that rental cars cost too much or are unavailable. You could also use autoslash.com to be notified if the price drops for your car rental. Also, joining a rental car company's free loyalty plan might help you guarantee a car or jump the queue, Ewen says. You may not even need a rental car; you could just Uber or Lyft around, Blount McCormick says.

How Retired Singles Can Safely Travel While Saving Money

Freewheeling Tours

Retirees who want to travel domestically at a social distance may prefer exploring destinations off the beaten track in a more freewheeling way. One option is with a recreational vehicle . RVshare offers rentals ranging from $50 a night to luxury models that top $1,000. Keep in mind that RV bookings are robust this year.

Traditionally, RV enthusiasts have skewed older, but younger travelers are now jumping on the bandwagon, with some using these spaces as "an office away from home," says Jon Gray, the company's CEO. More renters are requesting Wi-Fi and taking longer trips -- often for two weeks, up from a weekend or a week. He predicts RVshare will rent three times more vehicles this year than in 2019.

One drawback of RVs is finding a place to camp out. "Great campgrounds do fill up fast, but there are so many out there," Gray says. Look for a place on websites such as HipCamp.com , TheDyrt.com and Campendium.com . Also, book your destination campsite early, but be flexible enroute for spur-of-the moment changes.

You could also try a self-powered mode of transportation: cycling tours . Many of the tours hosted by Senior Cycling, which offers bike trips for those who are at least 50 years old, are already full for the year. The excursions, which take place all over the country, usually last about five to eight days and include a maximum of 13 riders and two leaders.

Mark and Colleen Troy, owners of the Ashville, N.C., company, have made some changes because of COVID- 19. If group dinners on opening and closing night cannot be held outdoors, they are canceled for now. The company also created two new types of tours to avoid driving people from place to place in a crowded van: a vagabond tour, which allows participants to ride from hotel to hotel, and a hub tour, which includes daily bike rides from one hotel or bed and breakfast.

12 Reasons to Retire in an RV

The Vaccination Question

Whether you will need to show proof of vaccination is still an open question. Although international travelers entering the U.S. may need a vaccine passport , there's no federal mandate for domestic travelers. In fact, some state governors have banned such passports, while others are still considering them. New York, for example, introduced the Excelsior pass, a free app for showing digital proof of full vaccination or a negative COVID-19 test to attend events at venues such as Madison Square Garden. For travel abroad, you will need to know the vaccine requirements for any country you visit (see sidebar on this page).

The CDC recommends that only people who are fully vaccinated should travel to reduce the chances of contracting and spreading the virus. The agency also requires that all passengers returning to the U.S. -- even fully vaccinated Americans -- show negative COVID-19 results from a test taken within three days of traveling or proof of recovery from COVID-19 in the past three months before boarding.

Each cruise company will have its own vaccination policy, with many mandating a vaccine before you can board. For instance, Royal Caribbean International says guests 18 years and older will have to be vaccinated at least 14 days before departure, while those younger will need to show proof of a negative COVID-19 test. Check the cruise line's policies before booking a ticket and setting sail, says Chris Gray Faust, managing editor of CruiseCritic.com . A number of websites, including travelandleisure.com , post a cruise's requirements.

Some tour companies are worried that requiring the vaccine will drive away customers. Mark Frevert, chief architect and chief relationship officer at Overseas Adventure Travel, understands that concern, but his company stands by the requirement. He is counting on the loyalty of his long-time customers for business; the average age of his clients is 70 years old. The company, which offers small land- and sea-based tours to various countries, now mandates that all guests, staff and coach drivers be vaccinated 14 days before departure. In some countries where vaccines are scarce, one feature of his tours, a home-hosted dinner by a family abroad, has become more challenging.

So far, more than 75,000 people have paid in full through 2023, Frevert says. The company opened up bookings for 2023 early to accommodate those who were eager to reserve a future trip. One of those customers is Scott, the adventurous traveler who is staying put this year. A loyal Overseas Adventure customer, she is planning excursions to Turkey and Sicily in 2022.

Mark Troy, of Senior Cycling, says he and his wife debated whether to require proof of vaccination. While they do ask their customers to fill out a COVID-19 questionnaire, the Troys decided to encourage, but not mandate, getting the vaccine. "We didn't feel it would be appropriate to require vaccination. It would be infringing on someone's personal choice," he says.

Everything from vaccination requirements to plane seat availability to a country's travel policies will be in turmoil for much of this year, experts predict. So expect the unexpected. "A lot of airline and hotel employees have gone through a lot," Ewen says. "Be patient and flexible."

Those are words Austgen, who is planning the trip with her family to the Galapagos Islands, has taken to heart. "If our plans fall apart, we will probably reschedule the same trip for next year," she says. "A year ago, I would have been really upset to have a trip disrupted, but COVID-19 has put everything in perspective."

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Alina Tugend is a long-time journalist who has worked in Southern California, Rhode Island, Washington, D.C., London and New York. From 2005 to 2015, she wrote the biweekly Shortcuts column for The New York Times business section, which received the Best in Business Award for personal finance by the Society of American Business Editors and Writers. Her work has appeared in numerous publications, including The Times , The Atlantic , O, the Oprah Magazine , Family Circle and Inc. magazine. In 2011, Riverhead published Tugend's first book, Better by Mistake: The Unexpected Benefits of Being Wrong .

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Can Overseas Adventure Travel change its mind…

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Orange deputies arrest ‘potential serial killer’ in slayings of two women, things to do travel, can overseas adventure travel change its mind about giving me a refund travel troubleshooter investigates..

When Overseas Adventure Travel cancels John Gardner’s cruise to Italy, Croatia and Greece, it offers him a full refund. But then it changes its mind. Can it do that? And does it get to keep his $30,000?

Q: My wife and I were scheduled to go on an Overseas Adventure Travel cruise to the Dalmatian Coast and Greece this spring. OAT canceled the trip because of the coronavirus. It offered to either rebook another tour and receive $500 per person or receive a full refund.

We chose a refund. Two weeks later, an OAT representative called and said they “changed their mind.” No refunds would be available. We could either rebook or get a voucher.

Although I have sent many emails and have had three subsequent phone calls, OAT will not give us a refund. We are hoping that you can help us get our $30,000 back. — John Gardner, Lakewood, Wash.

A: I’m sorry that Overseas Adventure Travel canceled your cruise. I think you and your wife would have had a great adventure in Italy, Croatia and Greece. OAT did the right thing by canceling your cruise. It wasn’t safe to travel.

But your case has absolutely nothing to do with coronavirus. OAT sent you not one, but two emails offering a refund. You accepted the refund. Case closed.

You can’t revise an offer like that. Once you put it in writing, you have to honor it.

Now, that’s not to say I’m unsympathetic to OAT’s position. Like other travel companies, it’s facing an apocalyptic event. The cruise industry is particularly hard-hit by all the COVID-19 cancellations. I can understand why it would prefer to offer you a voucher.

But a deal’s a deal. You could have appealed your case to someone higher up at Overseas Adventure Travel. I list the names, numbers and email addresses of the executives at Grand Circle Travel, which owns OAT, on my consumer advocacy site, Elliott.org . A brief, polite email to one of them would have probably shaken a refund loose.

And if that didn’t work? I might have contacted your credit card company. OAT’s email offering a refund would have made your credit-card dispute an easy win. Alternatively, you could have filed a case in small claims court, although you would have had to limit your claim to $5,000.

I contacted Overseas Adventure Travel on your behalf. It refunded the $30,000, as promised.

If you need help with a coronavirus-related refund, please contact me. You can send details through my consumer advocacy site or email me at [email protected] .

Christopher Elliott is the chief advocacy officer of Elliott Advocacy, a nonprofit organization that helps consumers resolve their problems. Contact him at elliott.org/help or [email protected] .

(c) 2020 Christopher Elliott

Distributed by King Features Syndicate, Inc.

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DEAR TRAVEL TROUBLESHOOTER:  My wife and I were scheduled to go on an Overseas Adventure Travel cruise to the Dalmatian Coast and Greece this spring. OAT canceled the trip because of the coronavirus. It offered to either rebook another tour and receive $500 per person or receive a full refund.

We chose a refund. Two weeks later, an OAT representative called and said they “changed their mind.” No refunds would be available. We could either rebook or get a voucher.

Although I have sent many emails and have had three subsequent phone calls, OAT will not give us a refund. We are hoping that you can help us get our $30,000 back.

— John Gardner, Lakewood, Wash.

ANSWER: I’m sorry that Overseas Adventure Travel canceled your cruise. I think you and your wife would have had a great adventure in Italy, Croatia and Greece. OAT did the right thing by canceling your cruise. It wasn’t safe to travel.

But your case has absolutely nothing to do with coronavirus. OAT sent you not one, but two emails offering a refund. You accepted the refund. Case closed.

You can’t revise an offer like that. Once you put it in writing, you have to honor it.

Now, that’s not to say I’m unsympathetic to OAT’s position. Like other travel companies, it’s facing an apocalyptic event. The cruise industry is particularly hard-hit by all the COVID-19 cancellations. I can understand why it would prefer to offer you a voucher.

And if that didn’t work? I might have contacted your credit card company. OAT’s email offering a refund would have made your credit-card dispute an easy win. Alternatively, you could have filed a case in small claims court, although you would have had to limit your claim to $5,000.

I contacted Overseas Adventure Travel on your behalf. It refunded the $30,000, as promised.

If you need help with a coronavirus-related refund, please contact me. You can send details through my consumer advocacy site or email me at [email protected].

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Shopping cart items, covid-19 guide for the adventure travel industry.

ATTA Adventure Travel COVID-19  Health and Safety Guidelines

• Find the Adventure Travel COVID-19 Health and Safety Guidelines in English  here
• Find the Adventure Travel COVID-19 Health and Safety Guidelines in Spanish  here

Live Updates

The latest information on travel restrictions, requirements, and reopenings from various travel monitoring websites:.

• IATA : Travel Regulations Map
• Travel Weekly: Global Travel Restrictions and Rules
• CDC : COVID-19 Travel Recommendations
• CDC : Country-Specific COVID-19 Information
• CIBT Visas:  The Latest International Entry Requirements
• Global Rescue : Coronavirus Daily Updates
• Forbes : Master List Of Airline Coronavirus Change and Cancellation Policies (Includes All American And European Airlines)
• Johns Hopkins University: US Travel Industry Daily Updates
• Sojern's 2021 COVID-19 Travel Data Insights Dashboard
• Sherpa : Travel and Health Restrictions Updates
• Re-open EU:  Europe Travel Information and Updates
• Test for Travel : Travel Restrictions Assessment 
• Airheart : Travel Bans and Requirements

  Adventure Travel Industry FAQs

1. how can i help minimize the impact of the pandemic on my travel business.

• Consider your cancellation policy carefully and decide whether it will benefit your long-term relationship with your travelers to offer credits or no cancellation penalties to encourage future bookings. Also, consider allowing them to transfer their bookings to others like a gift certificate.
• Monitor countries on your itineraries to understand if border closures or traveler bans may create problems for your travelers.
• Offer any support needed regarding hotel, air, and transportation cancellations.
• Communicate regularly to your clients and guests.
• The Future of Travel in the Wake of COVID-19
• Charting Adventure Travel’s Path to Recovery 
• Understanding the Impacts of COVID-19
• 10 Recovery, Heath, and Safety Recommendations for Adventure Travel From ATTA
• Attempting to Profile the post-COVID-19 Traveler
• Prospectiva del Turismo en la Era Post COVID-19
• Doing Good in the Time of COVID-19
• Politicas de Cancelación en Tiempos de COVID-19
• Fortify Your Travel Business with Insurance
• Online Waivers and Digital Release Forms
• Travel Insurance 
• How to Turn Crisis into Opportunity 
• Tripadvisor Introduces Live Sentiment Dashboard to Support Global Tourism Recovery
• COVID-19 Travel Sentiment Study-Wave 30
• COVID-19 Culture Assessment
• Coronavirus disease (COVID-19): Travel advice for the general public
• Travel Advisors: Gate1 Travel
• Tour Operator, Italy: CycleEurope
• Tour Operator, Nepal: Social Tours
• Surviving COVID-19 Through Tourism Resilience
• Supporting Tour Guides During The COVID-19 Pandemic
• Supporting Your Customers, Staff, and Business Through Coronavirus 2020
• Lead Your Business Through the Coronavirus Crisis:   12 actions for businesses in general to consider
• Disaster is Just an Opportunity in Hiding : considerations for action plan for adventure travel businesses
• COVID-19: Implications for business:   includes 7 actions your business can take now.
• IHG Is the Model for Hotel Chains on Cancellations as Crisis Mounts
• How hotels should set room rates now and after the coronavirus crisis?
• As domestic travel picks up in Japan, players adapt with safety measures, micro-targeting and hybrid models
• U.S. Small Business Administration Disaster Assistance in Response to the Coronavirus
• U.S. Small Business Administration Disaster Assistance Funding Programs & Loans
• How do I apply for a Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan? (for UK based businesses)
• List Of Banks Offering Relief To Customers Affected By Coronavirus (COVID-19)
• Financial Assistance for Businesses Affected by the Coronavirus Is on the Way  (USA)
• Support for entrepreneurs impacted by the coronavirus COVID-19 (Canada)
• Europeans Maintain a Robust Desire to Travel, Planning 2021 Trips Despite COVID-19 Second Wave
• Treetop Adventure Business Emerges from Lockdown with Fresh Ideas
• Apps to Let Travelers, Others Show COVID-19 Status
• Assessment of Risks of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission During Air Travel and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions to Reduce Risk
• Hard Truths From Singapore's Reopening Gambits – Skift
• Accelerating Travel Innovation After Coronavirus
• Europeans maintain a robust desire to travel, planning 2021 trips despite COVID-19 second wave
• Tripadvisor says travel remains top of mind for consumers
• RESOURCES - Indigenous Tourism Forum

2. Is travel insurance covering cancellations from COVID-19?

Fear of travel is never a covered reason for any type of coverage. In no instances can you get reimbursed for canceling your trip because you’re worried about how the COVID-19 outbreak may impact your travels. Some travel insurance will cover trips impacted by COVID-19 in other ways. See some policies below.

• Forbes Best Pandemic Travel Insurance Plans Of October 2021
• Does your credit card's travel insurance cover coronavirus cancellations? Here's what American Express, Chase and others are telling customers
• Does Travel Insurance Cover the Coronavirus?
• World Nomads: Coronavirus (COVID-19) and travel 
• Travel Guard: Coronavirus Advisory
• Allianz Tavel U.S. Coverage Alert

3. What should we say to our clients and travelers?

Don't shy away from this topic with your clients, customers, or followers. Be transparent and communicative, calm, and reasonable. Below are some articles you could share, and we will soon post some sample letters from members of our community. Please feel free to share yours in the comment section below!

Useful Articles on what to say and what not to say

• 11 Ways To Support Your Favorite Travel Businesses From Home
• What You Can Do Today to Help the Travel and Tourism Industry
• Scared about Coronavirus? Stop Telling Customers “But We’re Clean!”
• Please Postpone, Don’t Cancel Your Trip—Keep the Travel Spark Alive
• Rios Tropicales
• G Adventures
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• OARS Response to COVID-19
• Odysseys Unlimited
• Journey Mexico "Escape the Crowds"
• Ethical Travel Portal, Norway

4. What should destinations and DMOs be doing now?

Strategic Opportunities for Destination Recovery and Resilience from the ATTA:

The ATTA is working with senior advisors to identify strategies that support recovery and resiliency:

• Short and Long Term Solutions to Support Evolving Strategies 
• Advising DMO members to research new source markets
• Working closely with hotel, airlines, and receptive and international tour operators to develop attractive packages to stimulate travel from these source markets and target customers
• Making incremental investments in marketing these packages now, starting with short-haul and regional markets and then focus on tried and true longer-haul and international markets.
• First-mover advantage is critical here – destinations that can move fast to switch focus stand the best chance of riding out the crisis.
• Destinations Embrace Multilingual, Multicultural Marketing to Attract New Travelers for Post-Covid Reality
• Action Plan for DMOs from consultant Twenty31 
• Coronavirus: What Should DMOs Do?
• Promoting Tourism in the Time of Coronavirus Is a No-Win
• 3C epiphany - The Japanese Authorities Understood COVID-19 Better than Most | Asia

5. What can gear brands do?

• Masks Have Become a Viable New Product for Outdoor Brands
• Toad & Co Launches Coronavirus Assistance Program
• Crisis Communication
• Blaze-Partners: What's Next? Life After Lockdown

"Know just one thing - Tourism is Resilient and Rebounds - ALWAYS! If we can afford to weather this storm, we want to be ready for it!" - Raj Gyawali, SocialTours

ATTA members, join the conversation in  The HUB .

Submit your questions as well as your answers to the above questions in the comments below. We will continually update and add to this page.

The COVID-19 travel shock hit tourism-dependent economies hard

• Download the paper here

Subscribe to the Hutchins Roundup and Newsletter

Gian maria milesi-ferretti gian maria milesi-ferretti senior fellow - economic studies , the hutchins center on fiscal and monetary policy.

August 12, 2021

The COVID crisis has led to a collapse in international travel. According to the World Tourism Organization , international tourist arrivals declined globally by 73 percent in 2020, with 1 billion fewer travelers compared to 2019, putting in jeopardy between 100 and 120 million direct tourism jobs. This has led to massive losses in international revenues for tourism-dependent economies: specifically, a collapse in exports of travel services (money spent by nonresident visitors in a country) and a decline in exports of transport services (such as airline revenues from tickets sold to nonresidents).

This “travel shock” is continuing in 2021, as restrictions to international travel persist—tourist arrivals for January-May 2021 are down a further 65 percent from the same period in 2020, and there is substantial uncertainty on the nature and timing of a tourism recovery.

We study the economic impact of the international travel shock during 2020, particularly the severity of the hit to countries very dependent on tourism. Our main result is that on a cross-country basis, the share of tourism activities in GDP is the single most important predictor of the growth shortfall in 2020 triggered by the COVID-19 crisis (relative to pre-pandemic IMF forecasts), even when compared to measures of the severity of the pandemic. For instance, Grenada and Macao had very few recorded COVID cases in relation to their population size and no COVID-related deaths in 2020—yet their GDP contracted by 13 percent and 56 percent, respectively.

International tourism destinations and tourism sources

Countries that rely heavily on tourism, and in particular international travelers, tend to be small, have GDP per capita in the middle-income and high-income range, and are preponderately net debtors. Many are small island economies—Jamaica and St. Lucia in the Caribbean, Cyprus and Malta in the Mediterranean, the Maldives and Seychelles in the Indian Ocean, or Fiji and Samoa in the Pacific. Prior to the COVID pandemic, median annual net revenues from international tourism (spending by foreign tourists in the country minus tourism spending by domestic residents overseas) in these island economies were about one quarter of GDP, with peaks around 50 percent of GDP, such as Aruba and the Maldives.

But there are larger economies heavily reliant on international tourism. For instance, in Croatia average net international tourism revenues from 2015-2019 exceeded 15 percent of GDP, 8 percent in the Dominican Republic and Thailand, 7 percent in Greece, and 5 percent in Portugal. The most extreme example is Macao, where net revenues from international travel and tourism were around 68 percent of GDP during 2015-19. Even in dollar terms, Macao’s net revenues from tourism were the fourth highest in the world, after the U.S., Spain, and Thailand.

In contrast, for countries that are net importers of travel and tourism services—that is, countries whose residents travel widely abroad relative to foreign travelers visiting the country—the importance of such spending is generally much smaller as a share of GDP. In absolute terms, the largest importer of travel services is China (over $200 billion, or 1.7 percent of GDP on average during 2015-19), followed by Germany and Russia. The GDP impact for these economies of a sharp reduction in tourism outlays overseas is hence relatively contained, but it can have very large implications on the smaller economies their tourists travel to—a prime example being Macao for Chinese travelers.

How did tourism-dependent economies cope with the disappearance of a large share of their international revenues in 2020? They were forced to borrow more from abroad (technically, their current account deficit widened, or their surplus shrank), but also reduced net international spending in other categories. Imports of goods declined (reflecting both a contraction in domestic demand and a decline in tourism inputs such as imported food and energy) and payments to foreign creditors were lower, reflecting the decline in returns for foreign-owned hotel infrastructure.

The growth shock

We then examine whether countries more dependent on tourism suffered a bigger shock to economic activity in 2020 than other countries, measuring this shock as the difference between growth outcomes in 2020 and IMF growth forecasts as of January 2020, just prior to the pandemic. Our measure of the overall importance of tourism is the share of GDP accounted for by tourism-related activity over the 5 years preceding the pandemic, assembled by the World Travel and Tourism Council and disseminated by the World Bank . This measure takes into account the importance of domestic tourism as well as  international tourism.

Among the 40 countries with the largest share of tourism in GDP, the median size of growth shortfall compared to pre-COVID projections was around 11 percent, as against 6 percent for countries less dependent on tourism. For instance, in the tourism-dependent group, Greece, which was expected to grow by 2.3 percent in 2020, shrunk by over 8 percent, while in the other group,  Germany, which was expected to grow by around 1 percent, shrunk by 4.8 percent. The scatter plot of Figure 2 provides more striking visual evidence of a negative correlation (-0.72) between tourism dependence and the growth shock in 2020.

Of course, many other factors may have affected differences in performance across economies—for instance, the intensity of the pandemic as well as the stringency of the associated lockdowns. We therefore build a simple statistical model that relates the “growth shock” in 2020 to these factors alongside our tourism variable, and also takes into account other potentially relevant country characteristics, such as the level of development, the composition of output, and country size. The message: the dependence on tourism is a key explanatory variable of the growth shock in 2020. For instance, the analysis suggests that going from the share of tourism in GDP of Canada (around 6 percent) to the one of Mexico (around 16 percent) would reduce growth in 2020 by around 2.5 percentage points. If we instead go from the tourism share of Canada to the one of Jamaica (where the share of tourism in GDP approaches one third), growth would be lower by over 6 percentage points.

Measures of the severity of the pandemic, the intensity of lockdowns, the level of development, and the sectoral composition of GDP (value added accounted for by manufacturing and agriculture) also matter, but quantitatively less so than tourism. And results are not driven by very small economies; tourism is still a key explanatory variable of the 2020 growth shock even if we restrict our sample to large economies. Among tourism-dependent economies, we also find evidence that those relying more heavily on international tourism experienced a more severe hit to economic activity when compared to those relying more on domestic tourism.

Given data availability at the time of writing, the evidence we provided is limited to 2020. The outlook for international tourism in 2021, if anything, is worse, though with increasing vaccine coverage the tide could turn next year. The crisis poses particularly daunting challenges to smaller tourist destinations, given limited possibilities for diversification. In many cases, particularly among emerging and developing economies, these challenges are compounded by high starting levels of domestic and external indebtedness, which can limit the space for an aggressive fiscal response. Helping these countries cope with the challenges posed by the pandemic and restoring viable public and external finances will require support from the international community.

Read the full paper here.

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This is the impact of COVID-19 on the travel sector 

A full recovery of the global tourism sector isn't expected until 2024. Image:  UNSPLASH/Eva Darron

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Stay up to date:.

• The tourism sector is one of the worst affected by the impacts of COVID-19.
• International arrivals have increased by just 4% in the second year of the pandemic; with 1 billion fewer arrivals when compared to pre-pandemic levels.
• 63% of experts from the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) believe the sector won't fully recover until 2024.

While few industries have been spared by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, even fewer have been hit as hard as the tourism sector . As 2021 drew to a close with severe limitations to travel still in place, the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) reported that international tourist arrivals increased by just 4 percent last year, remaining 72 percent below 2019 levels. That equates to more than 1 billion fewer international arrivals compared to pre-pandemic levels, keeping the industry at levels last seen in the late 1980s.

Prior to the coronavirus outbreak, the global tourism sector had seen almost uninterrupted growth for decades. Since 1980, the number of international arrivals skyrocketed from 277 million to nearly 1.5 billion in 2019. As our chart shows, the two largest crises of the past decades, the SARS epidemic of 2003 and the global financial crisis of 2009, were minor bumps in the road compared to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Looking ahead, most experts no longer expect a full recovery until until 2024 or later. While the UNWTO Panel of Experts is confident to see an uptick in travel activity this year, just 4 percent of the surveyed experts expect a full recovery in 2022. Roughly one third of respondents believe that international arrivals will return to pre-pandemic levels in 2023, while 63 percent think it will take even longer than that. UNWTO scenarios predict that international tourist arrivals could grow between 30 and 78 percent in 2022 compared to 2021. While that sounds like a significant improvement, it would still be more than 50 percent below pre-pandemic levels.

Have you read?

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COVID-19: Fast decision-making helps travel companies survive

The state of the travel industry.

The COVID-19 pandemic is a health and humanitarian crisis, and it is also an economic shock. The outbreak has initiated an undeniable call to action for the travel industry to now rapidly assess these fast-changing developments, and the ensuing impact on their people, their customers, and their organizations. Currently, passenger travel and tourism is a public health hazard as well as a global economic problem. Travel companies are now making rapid decisions that will affect their very survival.

What now? Reduce, restructure, rebuild.

The fall in demand and closure of borders has seen the travel industry reduce at an unprecedented pace. Cruises have stopped, many airlines have suspended all scheduled service and hotel occupancy is low. The industry is starting to restructure—and the fortunate travel companies will pass from restructuring to rebuilding for a new normal.

Next steps for travel companies

Because passenger air travel is the fastest vector for virus transmission, it is the most dangerous path for a resurgence of this economic crisis. Governments are recognizing this at different speeds, but the end outcome is clear: most, if not all, borders will be shut to people for as long as the virus circulates. The recovery for this crisis will only start when measures have been taken and travel is judged safe. Domestic passenger aviation will resume first, followed by international travel on a bi-lateral basis. When proven safe, national aviation systems will open back up to each other and the flow of people will again begin.

Government support is coming, with strings attached

Government support to economies is beginning in earnest. Travel companies need to be prepared to address the demands that will be placed on them when they accept the funding, irrespective of the source. Assuring public safety, creating wins for people and other themes can help travel companies 'reset' and potentially come out better than ever. The determination of those strings will be political, and the industry still has time to work with politicians and others to shape those demands for stronger, safer, and more resilient travel.

We anticipate these "strings attached" will be focused on creating "a new normal" for our industry, centered on the following themes:

1. Assure public safety

The public is understandably wary about travel now, and they need some assurance and instruction on how and where to return safely to traveling. We expect important regulatory bodies and travel industry participants to work together to respond to this health crisis in the same as they have to others: by engineering towards safety with prudent risk mitigation techniques.  

In the short term, it is conceivable to expect health screenings just as we have security screenings in airports. Trusted, robust passenger information will be vital to helping ensure short-term traveler confidence and long-term public health.

What are the implications?

The industry members will need to work together to deliver personalized and relevant messages in coordination with regional health organizations as those organizations communicate that it is safe to return to travel. It is also very likely that the industry will be asked to gather and share precise traveler details and globally monitor macroeconomic, geopolitical, and environmental events, and asked to put formal, predefined contingency plans in place and then continuously update them based on these developments. In the event of a crisis, the industry should plan for the expectation that it will seamlessly coordinate a response and communicate corrective actions to customers.

2. "Wins" for the travelling public

Travel today is optimized for operational efficiency. All travel businesses are likely going to restart from near zero—will they just scale back what they had or rebuild it better?  

While cost competition will always exist, crowded cabins may be perceived as a health risk for some time. Customers may expect airlines, hotels, and cruises to implement hospital-like hygienic practices for every change of flight, room, and cabin, and expectations around cancellation policies and refunds will surely change.

Airlines will need to radically rethink their business model towards “customer-oriented” rather than efficiency-oriented. The average cost of delivering a trip will undoubtedly rise to meet new standards which means that back office cost reduction and efficiency will be required. AI-assisted customer engagement and a simplification of legacy systems, fare rules, and operational procedures will be required to help enable Travel companies to respond in a coordinated and aligned fashion to similar incidents in the future.

3. Truly human employment

The workforce in today’s travel industry is not organized in a way that makes it easy to respond to events that generate over- or under-capacity. In the event of a crisis, companies lack the cross-training capabilities and scalable infrastructure to resize and shape the workforce up or down as needed and as a result, they can be forced to lower service level and/or reduce the workforce.

Companies will be expected to take greater responsibility for the care of their people in both good and bad times. They will be expected to have plans in place that take into consideration the cultural and legal differences across regions. They will need the ability to shift large portions of their workforce from one role to another and enable them to work remotely.

4. High-speed one order

Travel bookings are currently disconnected across suppliers. While technology is available to stitch together the legs of an itinerary across air, car, and hotel, there is little to no information sharing to create an end-to-end transparency of the journey and to smooth out the handoffs between suppliers. This situation affects the customer experience under normal travel circumstances but has made it even harder for the industry to mitigate and respond to catastrophic events like COVID-19.  

The underlying technology that supports the industry has evolved into a web of integrations that are limiting growth and creating barriers to better service that make it less constructive to generate tourism in some markets.

The successful rebound of the travel industry means that industry members need to regain the ground lost by COVID-19. This will require cooperation across the industry to make it as easy to purchase a two-week tour of a remote region as it is to purchase a round trip ticket between two major cities. It means that a single standard like “One Order” that evens the playing field for all markets to benefit must be established.

5. Anti-trust protection

The fabric of the travel industry will change significantly as a result of COVID-19. Expansion of services, mergers, and acquisitions will likely be part of the new normal. The number of competitors in each market may decline. This means that companies must be ready to rapidly and effectively adjust to market changes.

The travel industry will be expected to maintain and ideally improve access to a wide selection of fairly-priced travel services. They will need to be able to expand and/or wind down parts of their operations. Furthermore, government participation or bail outs may lead to the introduction of “open access” and “fair price” regulation, creating the foundation to operate and regulate airlines as effective public concessions in a competitive marketplace. All of this must be done in a transparent way and adherent to antitrust laws globally.

6. Better than ever

Throughout history, crises like COVID-19, while adversely affecting an industry, have also been the driver of innovation and change. In the 2008/2009 automotive bailout, governments placed higher emissions and capital standards on the industry. The travel industry must be prepared to work in an environment where sustainability and operational requirements will become more stringent, and diversification into adjacent business models becomes even more important.

Travel companies will need to carve out headroom in their operating model to foster innovation. They will need to build an innovation engine that runs in parallel to their everyday operations. They will need to show improvement in their contribution to the natural environment and human performance while also demonstrating they have a business model that can sustain the effects of another event like COVID-19.

Looking beyond the immediate future

The COVID-19 outbreak has resulted in dramatic disruptions to Travel leading to new paradigms and many cases, permanent shifts. Companies will be forced to make quick decisions to ensure short-term confidence and longer-term business sustainability. What will be needed to meet the urgency of today and the demands of tomorrow? All Travel companies must immediately decide how they will improve in the six key themes we’ve outlined and address how to re-size and re-engineer their organization for a new normal. Many will apply new technologies to facilitate immediate responses, but these could pave the way for longer-term strategies that improve overall resilience and competitiveness.

DISCLAIMER: This document is intended for general informational purposes only and does not take into account the reader’s specific circumstances, and may not reflect the most current developments. Accenture disclaims, to the fullest extent permitted by applicable law, any and all liability for the accuracy and completeness of the information in this presentation and for any acts or omissions made based on such information. Accenture does not provide legal, regulatory, audit, or tax advice. Readers are responsible for obtaining such advice from their own legal counsel or other licensed professionals.

Copyright © 2020 Accenture All rights reserved. Accenture, its logo, and New Applied Now are trademarks of Accenture.

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The expected and unexpected financial impacts of the pandemic on study abroad

Cost and affordability of study are once again top of mind in the post-covid wor ld  .

The affordability and the cost of studying abroad has always been an important consideration for international students looking to study in the main English-speaking destinations of the US, UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. The high cost of tuition, rising costs of living in major metropolitan centres, and unfavourable currency exchange rates make international education one of the single largest investment decisions for many families.   

At the outset of the pandemic, concerns around COVID-19 cases, safety, and access to healthcare became more pressing concerns. But over time, international students have started to turn their minds back to the age-old issue of cost and affordability.  

The most recent Navitas Agent Perception report found that cost of study is in fact the number one factor influencing choice of study destination across many regions. As Figure 1 shows, over 1,000 agents from around the world reflected the fact that cost of study is universally important, and in many cases, it is ranked as more important than the ability to travel or the quality of education.  

Figure 1: What are currently the most important factors influencing student choice of study destination  

The pandemic-induced recession has taken a financial toll on would be international students and their families, although a small proportion have benefited  

For many students, parents and families, the pandemic-induced recession has undoubtedly adversely affected their ability to afford an international education experience. However, this recessionary effect is not likely to be uniform. One of the perverse consequences of the pandemic for example, is that asset-rich households have in fact prospered, while those less well-off in the service economy or the informal economy have been hardest hit.  

This bears out in the Navitas Agent Perception survey, which asked “Has the COVID-19 pandemic had a financial impact on your clients (students and their families)?” In response, agents reported that the majority of students and their families have experienced a negative (25%) or significant negative (28%) financial impact. On the other hand, the collective view was that about a quarter faced no financial impact (24%) while a proportion experienced a positive (9%) or significant positive impact (5%).  

Figure 2 highlights the variation reported by agents between regions. In all regions the proportion of students and families negatively affected by the pandemic recession ranges from 50 to 60 per cent. On the other hand, agents also report that across most regions 15 to 20 per cent of households saw a positive or significant positive financial result. In both cases, the Greater China region is the exception, with a much larger proportion reportedly experiencing no financial impact.  

Figure 2: Financial impact of the pandemic by region    

A negative financial impact does not automatically mean a lower intention to study abroad  

In the pre-pandemic era, the high cost of international study was often more than justified on the basis of the substantial long-term economic return on that investment. Countless studies have shown that tertiary education has a very significant impact both in terms of graduate starting salaries and lifetime earnings. For many students who choose to study abroad for want of high-quality tertiary options back home, it is a transformative experience. For those who choose to stay on to seek temporary or permanent migration, the benefits are further extended by both the experience and income gained.  

We also cannot assume that a negative financial impact results in a reduced willingness to study abroad. In fact, it is reasonable to expect that those who have had a difficult time during the pandemic might be more motivated to study abroad in order to improve their circumstances. The pandemic could thus have the effect of amplifying aspirations and ambitions.  

Another driver for an increased motivation to study abroad might stem from the psychological scarring of living through COVID in lockdown, without a strong government safety net, and with uncertain access to reliable healthcare. In the same way that economic security has historically been a driver for studying abroad, health security could well be a new reason for the COVID generation to pursue opportunities and life elsewhere.    

The Rockets, Reluctants, Resolutes and Restraineds  

The Navitas Agent Perception survey sought to break the issue into two dimensions. First, as discussed above, what was the extent of the financial impact? But secondly, did that financial impact affect student’s commitment to study overseas? Figure 3 presents the summary result across both these questions. There are four groups of international students and families that can be seen in these results.   

Figure 3: Financial impact of COVID-19 and commitment to study overseas  

First, in the bottom left are the group we would most naturally associate with the pandemic. These are the group that have experienced a negative/significant negative financial impact due to the pandemic, and as a result are now less/much less committed to studying abroad. Lower financial resources naturally mean a reduced ability to meet the high costs of tuition and cost of living.   

In the short-term, some of these barriers to affordability may be mitigated by improving economic conditions both at home and in the study destinations. Australia for example has become more appealing with additional work rights during and after study, severe skills shortages and low unemployment, rising wages, and the full rebate of visa application fees. While financial difficulties persist, this large group comprising 39% of would-be students are The Restrained .  

“ We cannot underestimate both the short and longer term impact on the capacity of some students to fund their studies. Redundancies, job losses, rising costs of travel and living expenses will have an effect on student flows and the time it takes to return to normal volumes in both source and destination countries. However, the impact will be felt differently in different markets and segments – we can expect students in India to fall into this category more than students from China for example and under-graduate students more than post-graduate.”   Tony Cullen, Navitas Executive General Manager, Global Engagement.

Second, in the top left, a fair proportion of students and families that experienced negative/significant negative financial impacts due to COVID-19 are also now more/much more committed to studying abroad. The financial impact has created additional hurdles for these families, but they are undeterred; these are the 11 per cent of students that form The Resolutes .  

Third, in the top right of Figure 3, there are those students and families who have seen an improvement in their financial situation and are now more/much more committed to studying overseas. We can call this group The Rockets , and they make up ~8 per cent of all students.  

And finally, in the bottom right, there are those who have seen an improvement in their financial decision but are now less/much less committed to studying abroad. Despite international study becoming notionally more affordable, these students and families have likely been deterred for non-financial reasons. This group are The Reluctants, but fortunately they only make up 3 per cent of all would be international students.  

In the midst of it all are the group whose commitment to study overseas has remained unchanged through the financial ups and downs of the last two years. At 40% of the prospective international student population, this group are as big as the group that are restrained.  

As with so many aspects of the pandemic, the financial impact of COVID-19 has been difficult to predict. Our intuition that students are going to be mostly worse off financially and therefore much less likely to want to study abroad are likely to be overstated. The Restrained are no doubt a large proportion but there are other groups to also consider in the post-COVID recovery.  

About The Author Jon Chew

Jon Chew is the Global Head of Insights and Analytics at Navitas, and is one of Australia's foremost experts in international education market trends. The key theme throughout Jon's work has been the interrogation and interpretation of diverse quantitative and qualitative data to uncover the underlying narrative and meaning. His ultimate goal is to influence critical decisions through clear, rigorous and actionable insights. Jon's approach is characterised by deep technical expertise, storytelling, and a genuinely collaborative approach. Jon is passionate about education and is himself a product of global mobility having grown up in Malaysia and making the transition to university many years ago via a pathway program.

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