pga tour driving statistics

Game Changers

How driving distance has changed over the past 40 years on the pga tour.

Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland hits his shot from the tenth tee during the second round of the 2022 PGA Championship at the Southern Hills on May 20, 2022 in Tulsa, Oklahoma. (Photo by Darren Carroll/PGA of America)

We Can Learn from Rory's Admission; Make Sure The Changes You’re Making Fit Your Golf Game

Hit it Longer off the Tee with Joanna Coe

Adding Distance Off the Tee Like Cameron Champ Will Help Your Golf Game

Year - average distance (yards) | leader - leader's average.

• 2023 - 297.2 | Leader: Rory McIlroy - 326.6
• 2022 - 299.8 | Leader: Cameron Champ - 321.4
• 2021 - 295.3 | Leader: Bryson DeChambeau - 320.8
• 2020 - 296.4 | Leader: Bryson DeChambeau - 322.1
• 2019 - 293.9 | Leader: Cameron Champ - 317.9
• 2018 - 295.29 | Leader: Trey Mullinax - 318
• 2017 - 292.79 | Leader: Rory McIlroy - 316.7
• 2016 - 291.06 | Leader: J.B. Holmes - 314.5
• 2015 - 290.21 | Leader: Dustin Johnson - 317.7
• 2014 - 289.85 | Leader: Bubba Watson - 314.3
• 2013 - 288.00 | Leader: Luke List - 306.3
• 2012 - 290.07 | Leader: Bubba Watson - 315.5
• 2011- 291.14 | Leader: J.B. Holmes - 318.4
• 2010 - 287.49 | Leader: Robert Garrigus - 315.5
• 2009 - 288.07 | Leader: Robert Garrigus - 312
• 2008 - 287.74 | Leader: Bubba Watson - 315.1
• 2007 - 289.08 | Leader: Bubba Watson - 315.2
• 2006 - 289.35 | Leader: Bubba Watson - 319.6
• 2005 - 288.88 | Leader: Scott Hend- 318.9
• 2004 - 287.32 | Leader: Hank Kuehne - 314.4
• 2003 - 286.30 | Leader: Hank Kuehne - 321.4
• 2002 - 279.84 | Leader: John Daly - 306.8
• 2001 - 279.35 | Leader: John Daly - 306.7
• 2000 - 273.18| Leader: John Daly - 301.4
• 1999 - 272.45 | Leader: John Daly - 305.6
• 1998 - 270.63 | Leader: John Daly - 299.4
• 1997 - 267.67 | Leader: John Daly - 302
• 1996 - 266.49 | Leader: John Daly - 288.8
• 1995 - 263.55 | Leader: John Daly - 289
• 1994 - 261.84 | Leader: Davis Love III - 283.8
• 1993 - 260.36 | Leader: John Daly - 288.9
• 1992 - 260.52 | Leader: John Daly - 283.4
• 1991 - 261.44 | Leader: John Daly - 288.9
• 1990 - 262.75 | Leader: Tom Purtzer - 279.6
• 1989 - 261.81 | Leader: Ed Humenik - 280.9
• 1988 - 263.50 | Leader: Steve Thomas - 284.6
• 1987 - 262.50 | Leader: John McComish - 283.9
• 1986 - 261.58 | Leader: Davis Love III - 285.7
• 1985 - 260.18 | Leader: Andy Bean - 278.2
• 1984 - 259.61 | Leader: Bill Glasson - 276.5
• 1983 - 258.65 | Leader: John McComish - 277.4
• 1982 - 256.89 | Leader: Bill Calfee - 275.3
• 1981 - 259.66 | Leader: Dan Pohl - 280.1
• 1980 - 256.89 | Leader: Dan Pohl - 274.3

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The golf stats that matter most on the PGA Tour

Consider, for a moment, Denny McCarthy. In the 2019-20 season, he was the strokes gained/putting champion of the PGA Tour , and almost became just the second person (after Jason Day) to average an entire stroke gained over the field per round. It was his second straight mythical putting title, and it’s not even a little hyperbolic to call him one of the greatest putters on Earth. That said, if you know anything about Denny McCarthy, you know he’s not one of the greatest players on Earth. In the two seasons when he led the PGA Tour in putting, he finished 111th and 73rd in the FedEx Cup standings and only managed six top-10s in 51 tournaments. There’s no doubt that he’s very good, but there’s also no doubt that in this case, his brilliant putting didn’t translate to superlative results.

Golf, like many sports, is fertile ground for folk wisdom. If you’ve spent time around a course, you’ve heard the expression “drive for show, putt for dough.” McCarthy’s case would cast some doubt on this formulation, but of course the 27-year-old is just one person and it would be a mistake to draw any statistical conclusions from the smallest possible sample size. Right or wrong, though, the “putt for dough” idea is attempting to answer a question of critical importance for players: Which skill matters the most? Which specific aspect of golf has the greatest correlation to sustained success? And which elements are less important than we think?

To search for the answer, I reached out to Rick Gehman, founder of RickRunGood.com and a Golf Digest contributor. There are a few brilliant numbers guys in golf, and he’s one of them. As expected, he took the concept and blew it out of the water. In his words:

I’ve attached a sheet that looks at the 130 official PGA Tour stats and compares them for the 2020 season FedEx Cup Regular Season Points. With only one year, and a shortened one at that, there’s going to be more randomness than usual BUT I think the list certainly passes the eye test.

Gehman’s method was what he called a “straightforward regression model,” in which two variables are compared to each other using 129 qualifying players. The steady variable is FedEx Cup points accrued by a player during the regular season, which was our metric for success (you could argue that total strokes-gained average is better, but I wanted to go by the PGA Tour’s own standard, albeit before the points blow up in the playoffs and skew the results). The second variable is the other 130 stats, with a ranking value assigned to each based on a player’s finish in the year-end standings. By finding out which ones have the closest correlation to each other, you can see which statistics might predict success.

In simpler words, this shows us what the best players did the best.

RELATED: The top 100 PGA Tour pros in 2021, ranked

Let me echo Gehman’s caution up top: With only an abbreviated season’s worth of data, there is bound to be some statistical noise, and to draw definite conclusions of any kind, you’d need to look at a years-long study.

With that said, the list can be found here . The higher the number, the more closely correlated the result is with FedEx Cup success. A few observations:

• As a quality control test, it’s good to see that “official money” and “Official World Golf Ranking” are the top two. Clearly, if these didn’t correlate with our concept of success, something would be seriously wrong.

• Of the comprehensive strokes-gained numbers, SG/approach the green is the most “important” to overall success. It’s the top stat after money and World Ranking, and it’s even above SG/total, which comes in fourth. That last fact is the least intuitive of the results and probably deserves closer inspection.

RELATED: What the sophisticated golf fan should be looking for in 2021

• The top six are: SG/approach the green, SG/off-the-tee, scoring average, SG/total, SG/around the green, and SG/tee-to-green. Again, this all stands to reason and functions as good quality control.

The saying "putt for dough" on the PGA Tour hasn't held up the last two seasons, as Denny McCarthy led both times in strokes gained/putting but finishing 111th and 76th on the FedEx Cup points list, respectively.

Gregory Shamus

• But you might have noticed something missing … where’s putting? Incredibly, SG/putting ranks 64th on the list, exactly at the halfway mark. It’s hard not to think of that number in relation to McCarthy, and while the warning above still has to be observed, it definitely raises some questions about the relative value of putting.

• Looking at the top of the list, there are a lot of stats like “birdie average” and “scoring average” that you’d expect. But when you start getting into highly specific stats, like driving distance and “approaches from > 200 yards” you see the putting categories appear only after several tee-to-green stats.

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• In particular, long approaches seem to be of some importance. Approaches from longer than 175 yards seem more correlated with success than anything on the green. Greens in regulation is hugely critical, coming in 16th.

• Scrambling matters, too. Not only is SG/around the green fifth overall, but scrambling itself (31st), sand-save percentage (35th), scrambling from the rough (44th) and scrambling from 10-20 yards (49th) are all relatively high.

• Interestingly, “consecutive cuts” finished dead last, one of only two stats with a negative correlation value. Clearly, in a system like the FedEx Cup where points are top heavy, consistency without at least sporadic excellence is a dubious merit.

• In the “Bryson was right” department, driving distance average (28th) is more closely correlated with success than driving-accuracy percentage (52nd).

• If you’re looking for a magic secret stat that perfectly predicts success, you’ll be disappointed. Personally, I was hoping that we’d somehow find out that all the best players were wizards from the left rough between 150-175 yards. Alas …

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After reading Gehman’s list, I wanted to try one more approach that looked only at the top 30 players on tour from last season. It’s less scientific, but I thought it might be worthwhile. Luis Rivera at the PGA Tour helped immensely by providing me with a spreadsheet of the overall ranking in all the major strokes-gained categories from the top 30 in the 2020 FEC rankings. With these numbers, it was possible to do a quick and dirty check for success correlation.

A clutch putt from Mackenzie Hughes, something his stats show he's prone to do, at the BMW Championship earned him the last spot into the 2020 Tour Championship.

Stacy Revere

With fewer players, there will be outliers, and the data will necessarily be less precise. As an example, we can look at Mackenzie Hughes, who missed nine of his first 11 cuts, then made it all the way to the Tour Championship by virtue of catching fire late. He’s in the McCarthy vein, having finished eighth in putting but worse than 140th in the other major categories. Meanwhile, Hideki Matsuyama goes the other way, cleaning up from off the green but finishing a sad 170th in putting.

Here were the average season-ending rankings for each category among this group of 30:

SG/total : 29.7 SG:/tee-to-green : 41.47 SG/approach : 52.97 SG/off-the-tee : 53.67 SG/putting : 65.73 SG/around the green : 71.9

The similarity here is that putting is relatively low, and the biggest difference comes with “around the green,” which looks a lot less significant here. (Also, fans of strokes gained will be relieved to know that SG/total is No. 1 here, as you’d expect it to be.) Again, Gehman’s method is the more sophisticated metric, and should take precedence, but it’s interesting to see what changes and what doesn’t with a slightly different method.

The broad conclusion is that when you look at 2020, tee-to-green golf seems to be a more useful skill than putting. In the real world, a great player needs both, but we may want to get ahead of the curve and tweak that famous expression: Putt for show, do everything else for dough.

LPGA Vs PGA Tour Pros - How The Stats Compare

We look at the 2023 stats for the PGA Tour and LPGA and see how the best of the men's and women's game compare in everything from driving to putting

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The world of pro golf is littered with stats, almost every aspect of the game can now be measured in some way, and it makes interesting reading to compare the figures on the PGA and LPGA Tours.

With the upcoming golf ball rollback as reference as well, let's see what the main differences are in the stats categories for the main tours in the men's and women's games.

Driving distance

Breaking news, PGA Tour players hit it further than LPGA players do - I know, not exactly new information but a few little takeaways from the stats.

LPGA big hitter Polly Mack averages 10 yards further than the last placed Brian Stuard on the PGA Tour, and is within 20 yards of the PGA Tour average off the tee.

The top 10 in the women's game all managed to outdrive Staurd, with Lexi Thompson almost identical at just over 271 yards for her average off the tee.

And as Thompson showed playing on the PGA Tour that distance is almost good enough to make a cut, as she came agonisingly close to making the weekend.

Driving accuracy

Maybe due to slower swing speeds having more control, or more thought about placement off the tee with longer second shots, we've known for a while that finding fairways is a much bigger deal on the LPGA than the PGA Tour.

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It's a criticism of the men's game at times, the 'bomb and gouge' argument that PGA Tour players just smash it as far as they can and then worry about it from there, and there certainly seems to be less emphasis on finding the short stuff.

Remarkably, the player finishing in dead last in the LPGA fairways found stats is only just below the PGA Tour average, while men's leader Russell Henley would rank exactly 100th in the women's game with his fairways found percentage.

Greens in regulation

Not much to split them here which is interesting, with LPGA stars playing from the fairway more often but likely further away than their PGA Tour counterparts - the women's leader Olivia Cowan only just edges out Scottie Scheffler .

There's a slightly lower floor on the LPGA but all in all similar numbers, so despite differences off the tee the men and women are both finding the dancefloor at around about the same rate.

So who's the best at getting out of the sand? Well, Matt Kuchar is head and shoulder above everyone really, as second-placed Justin Rose isn't too far ahead of Mi Hyang Lee.

From the LPGA list 31 players would be above average on the PGA Tour, and while again the floor is lower in terms of the bottom number in the women's game, only the top three in the men's ranks have a better sand save percentage than women's leader Lee.

Pretty close in the overall average number of putts taken per round, but only the top five on the LPGA list duck under the PGA Tour average.

There's a similar gap between top to bottom as well interestingly, with about three shots separating the top spot and last place in each standings.

Scoring average

Scottie Scheffler unsurprisingly leading the way after his ultra consistent season, and Ludvig Aberg showcased his ability by finishing ahead of Jon Rahm in the PGA tour standings.

There's a shot and a quarter between Scheffler and LPGA leader Atthaya Thitikul, while 24 players in the women's standings dip below the PGA Tour average. 

Overall, there are 72 players in the PGA Tour list who average under under 70 compared to seven on the LPGA.

Birdie average

We've put a 50-round minimum on the LPGA to match-up to the PGA Tour standings, and we see that there's not much at all between the leaders on their respective tours.

Ludvig Aberg again leads the way on the PGA Tour with less than half a birdie per round between him and women's leader Atthaya Thitikul.

There are 13 LPGA players who average over four birdies a round compared to 46 on the PGA Tour.

Paul Higham is a sports journalist with over 20 years of experience in covering most major sporting events for both Sky Sports and BBC Sport. He is currently freelance and covers the golf majors on the BBC Sport website.  Highlights over the years include covering that epic Monday finish in the Ryder Cup at Celtic Manor and watching Rory McIlroy produce one of the most dominant Major wins at the 2011 US Open at Congressional. He also writes betting previews and still feels strangely proud of backing Danny Willett when he won the Masters in 2016 - Willett also praised his putting stroke during a media event before the Open at Hoylake. Favourite interviews he's conducted have been with McIlroy, Paul McGinley, Thomas Bjorn, Rickie Fowler and the enigma that is Victor Dubuisson. A big fan of watching any golf from any tour, sadly he spends more time writing about golf than playing these days with two young children, and as a big fair weather golfer claims playing in shorts is worth at least five shots. Being from Liverpool he loves the likes of Hoylake, Birkdale and the stretch of tracks along England's Golf Coast, but would say his favourite courses played are Kingsbarns and Portrush. 

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Greens In Regulation

Drive distance, drive accuracy, ball striking, consecutive cuts, score average, putts average, top-10 finishes.

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2024 Myrtle Beach Classic odds, field: Surprising PGA picks, predictions from model that's nailed 11 majors

Sportsline's proven model simulated the myrtle beach classic 2024 10,000 times and revealed its pga golf picks.

A new event on the PGA Tour will begin on Thursday when the 2024 Myrtle Beach Classic makes its debut at The Dunes Golf and Beach Club in South Carolina. It is the third Additional Event of the season, sitting opposite to the Wells Fargo Championship, which is the main event of the week. This course previously hosted the PGA Tour Champions season-ending Charles Schwab Cup Championship from 1994 to 1999, and it also hosted the PGA Tour Q-School Finals in 1973. Erik van Rooyen is the 25-1 favorite in the 2024 Myrtle Beach Classic odds, followed by Ben Griffin (28-1) and Doug Ghim (30-1). 

There are 12 golfers in the 2024 Myrtle Beach Classic field who have a two-year exemption due to being a PGA Tour tournament winner. Are they the primary golfers you should be targeting with your 2024 Myrtle Beach Classic bets? Before making any 2024 Myrtle Beach Classic picks, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine .

SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, the model is up more than $9,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

McClure's model correctly predicted Scottie Scheffler would finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2024 Masters, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the Players Championship, and the RBC Heritage this season. McClure also included Hideki Matsuyama in his best bets to win the 2024 Genesis Invitational. That bet hit at +9000, and for the entire tournament, McClure's best bets returned nearly $1,000.

The model also predicted Jon Rahm would be victorious at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. At the 2023 Masters, the model was all over Rahm's second career major victory heading into the weekend. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the third round, but the model still projected him as the winner. It was the second straight Masters win for the model, which also nailed Scheffler winning in 2022.

In addition, McClure's best bets included Nick Taylor (70-1) winning the 2023 RBC Canadian Open, Jason Day (17-1) winning outright at the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson, and Rickie Fowler (14-1) finishing on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic.

This same model has also nailed a whopping 11 majors entering the weekend and hit the Masters three straight years. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.

Now that the Myrtle Beach Classic 2024 field is finalized, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard .

Top 2024 Myrtle Beach Classic predictions 

One major surprise the model is calling for at the Myrtle Beach Classic 2024: Ben Griffin, who is listed second in the odds this week, stumbles and doesn't even crack the top five. Griffin finished T13 in the CJ Cup Byron Nelson last week after missing the cut in the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. He has finished inside the top 40 in five of his last six tournaments, but he has not posted a top-10 finish during that stretch. 

In fact, his only top-10 of the season came in The American Express in January when he finished T9 at 24-under. He ranks outside the top 160 on the PGA Tour in total driving and outside the top 120 in GIR percentage. The model does not think he has the tools to put four strong rounds together this week, making him a golfer to avoid with Myrtle Beach Classic bets. 

Another surprise: Victor Perez, a 35-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Perez has already been in contention once this season, finishing T3 in the Puerto Rico Open in March when he shot 18-under.

He has made the cut in six of his last seven individual events on the PGA Tour, carding top-20 finishes in the Cognizant Classic and the Texas Children's Houston Open. Perez ranks 16th in strokes gained approaching the green and seventh in GIR percentage. This is one of the weakest fields he will face this year, so he has an excellent chance to pick up his first career PGA Tour victory.  See who else to pick here . 

How to make 2024 Myrtle Beach Classic picks

The model is also targeting three other golfers with odds of 35-1 or longer to make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model's picks here .

Who will win the 2024 Myrtle Beach Classic, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the Myrtle Beach Classic 2024 odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected Myrtle Beach Classic leaderboard , all from the model that's nailed 11 golf majors, including the last three Masters.

2024 Myrtle Beach Classic odds, field

Get full 2024 Myrtle Beach Classic picks, best bets, and predictions here .

Erik van Rooyen +2500 Ben Griffin +2800 Doug Ghim +3000 Daniel Berger +3000 Davis Thompson +3000 Beau Hossler +3000 Victor Perez +3500 Ryan Fox +3500 Matt Wallace +3500 Kevin Yu +3500 Thorbjorn Olesen +4000 S.H. Kim +4000 Ryo Hisatsune +4000 Andrew Novak +4000 Chris Gotterup +4500 Chan Kim +4500 Taiga Semikawa +4500 K.H. Lee +4500 Justin Lower +4500 Joseph Bramlett +5000 Greyson Sigg +5000 Sam Stevens +5000 Alex Smalley +5000 Matti Schmid +5000 Jimmy Stanger +5500 Garrick Higgo +5500 Chesson Hadley +5500 Thriston Lawrence +5500 Sami Valimaki +5500 Alejando Tosti +5500 Robert MacIntyre +5500 Max Greyserman +5500 Jacob Bridgeman +6000 Ben Martin +6000 Sam Ryder +6000 Patton Kizzire +6000 Nick Hardy +6000 Michael Kim +6000 J.J. Spaun +6500 Davis Riley +6500 Chandler Phillips +6500 Chad Ramey +6500 C.T. Pan +6500 Martin Laird +6500 Kevin Dougherty +6500 Dylan Wu +7000 Carl Yuan +7000 Parker Coody +7000 Alexander Bjork +7500 Kelly Kraft +7500 Jorge Campillo +8000

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Wells Fargo Championship: Odds, predictions, value picks for next PGA Tour event

For the first time in his PGA Tour career, Wyndham Clark will arrive at a golf course as the defending champion.

He broke through at the Wells Fargo Championship a year ago, besting Xander Schauffele by four shots at the Quail Hollow Club. The following month, Clark went on to win the U.S. Open at the Los Angeles Country Club.

His most recent triumph came at Pebble Beach in February.

If not for Scottie Scheffler’s remarkable performances at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, The Players Championship, The Masters, and the RBC Heritage, one could make the case that Clark has had the most impressive stretch of golf over the past 12 months.

But luckily for Clark—and the rest of this limited field—Scheffler will not compete this week. He and his wife Meredith are eagerly awaiting the birth of their first child.

With the World No. 1 not in the field, the Wells Fargo odds were adjusted accordingly.

Wells Fargo Championship Odds:

Here are the current odds for players to win, provided by DraftKings:

• Rory McIlroy +800
• Xander Schauffele +1100
• Ludvig Åberg +1200
• Wyndham Clark +1800
• Viktor Hovland +2200
• Tommy Fleetwood +2200
• Patrick Cantlay +2200
• Max Homa +2200
• Collin Morikawa +2200
• Sahith Theegala +2800
• Matt Fitzpatrick +2800
• Hideki Matsuyama +2800
• Justin Thomas +3000
• Jordan Spieth +3000

Wells Fargo Championship Predictions

With no Scheffler, is this a wide-open tournament?

Maybe. Either way, this event is a perfect tune-up for next week’s PGA Championship . Quail Hollow Club, the host of this week’s Wells Fargo Championship, is one of the more challenging courses the tour visits each year, requiring precision from tee to green.

Funny enough, the club will host the PGA Championship again in 2025, eight years after Justin Thomas won his first PGA title at Quail Hollow in 2017.

Nevertheless, big hitters, who can also find plenty of greens, tend to do well here. Accuracy is also a must.

Rory McIlroy’s Personal Playground

The only winner of this tournament three times, Rory McIlroy loves competing at Quail Hollow.

His most recent victory here came in 2021, when he bested Abraham Ancer by a shot thanks to a final round 3-under 68. McIlroy relied on his putter that week, ranking third in strokes gained putting.

The Northern Irishman also won here in 2010 and 2015, with the former being his first career PGA Tour win . McIlroy shot a final round 9-under 62 to win the tournament, a course record that stood until 2015, when he bested that with a 10-under 61 during the third round. McIlroy won by seven that week.

This year, McIlroy arrives as the favorite, and understandably so. Fresh off his 25th career PGA Tour win at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans , McIlroy is rounding into form as we approach the meat of major championship season.

The odds reflect that, too. McIlroy’s steep price of a top-10 finish does not return any value at -110, so we like him to finish in the top 5 at +190.

Canadian Contingent Continues to Succeed

Canadian Taylor Pendrith closed out his first career PGA Tour victory in dramatic fashion this past week, thanks to Ben Kohles’ heartbreaking bogey on the 72nd hole.

As such, Pendrith gained entry into this week’s field and next week’s PGA Championship, a major step for his budding career.

But Pendrith is not the only Canadian that has played well as of late. Nick Taylor won the WM Phoenix Open in February, Corey Conners has not missed a cut this season, and Mackenzie Hughes is trending in the right direction.

Yet, of that group, we like Conners to play well at Quail Hollow once again.

Last year, Conners tied for eighth at the Wells Fargo Championship, carding under-par rounds on all four days. He hit the green in regulation 76.4% of the time, which ranked fourth in the field—not a surprise given his exquisite ball-striking abilities.

Conners ranks fourth in strokes gained approaching the green and third in greens in regulation on tour this season. He also finds plenty of fairways, doing so at 68.73% of the time, which is well above the tour average.

Considering this, we like Conners to improve his performance from a season ago and finish within the top 5 at Quail Hollow at +1100.

Alex Noren will fly under the radar into another top-10 finish

Perhaps the most underrated player on the PGA Tour this season, 41-year-old Swede Alex Noren has played in 10 events, finishing in the top 25 on seven occasions.

His best finish came at last week’s CJ Cup Byron Nelson, where he shot a final round 6-under 65 to finish in solo third.

The stats reflect his strong play this season, too. Noren ranks 6th in total strokes gained and second in greens in regulation percentage, trailing only Scheffler. He is also first in scrambling percentage, saving par nearly 75% of the time when he misses greens.

The only knock on Noren is that he ranks 145th on the PGA Tour in total driving distance, which could prove difficult at Quail Hollow, a course that measures nearly 7,600 yards.

Still, Noren has too many things going on not to consider him. We like him to record his third top 10 of the season at a price of +800.

Wells Fargo Championship Longshot Pick

Before the 2024 Masters Tournament, Sepp Straka, the first Austrian-born player to represent Europe in the 2023 Ryder Cup , could not find any consistency in his game.

Four missed cuts and two top-20 finishes at The Sentry and The Players had him teetering all over the place.

But something clicked at Augusta National . He tied for 16th that week then recorded his best finish of the season at the RBC Heritage, tying for fifth.

Straka then finished in a tie for 11th at the Zurich Classic, playing alongside Brice Garnett.

After an off week, the former Georgia Bulldog arrives at Quail Hollow fresh and ready to contend again at a major championship venue. He ranks second on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy percentage, finding fairways at nearly 80% of the time.

He also has found 68.82% of the greens this season, which ranks 36th on tour.

Even though he missed the cut here a year ago, we believe Straka’s accuracy and above-average ball-striking can lead him to his first PGA Tour victory of the season. At +6000, the Austrian is worth the longshot.

Wells Fargo Championship Winner

Of those players without a PGA Tour victory in 2024, nobody has played better than Xander Schauffele, who ranks third in total strokes gained this season.

We believe his oh-so-close narrative changes this week, with Schauffele emerging victorious at Quail Hollow. He ranks 10th in strokes gained off the tee and is 27th in strokes gained approaching the green—both solid attributes for success on this tough golf course.

He has played well on this course, too. Schauffele finished solo second at Quail Hollow a year ago, which included a 7-under 64 during his third round. He also tied for 14th in 2021.

The question becomes if he can make some putts, as he routinely puts himself in the best of positions. He tied for second at The Players and finished solo eighth at The Masters, but if he could have had a few more putts drop, those solid performances may have turned into memorable wins.

Alas, we believe that Schauffele does just that this week. He arrives with the second-lowest odds at +1000 behind McIlroy, and will gallop into Kentucky full of confidence for the PGA Championship.

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Jack Milko is a golf staff writer for SB Nation’s Playing Through. Be sure to check out @_PlayingThrough for more golf coverage. You can follow him on Twitter @jack_milko as well.

England's Kim, 16, youngest to make PGA Tour cut in 11 years

16-year-old Kris Kim makes the most of his great tee shot and sinks the birdie putt on Hole 2 of The CJ Cup Byron Nelson. (0:36)

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Kris Kim , a 16-year-old English amateur playing on a sponsor exemption at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, became the youngest player in 11 years to make the cut in a PGA Tour event.

Kim finished his second round Friday with a birdie for a 4-under 67. At 7-under 135, he was among 66 players who made the cut, which was 6 under. Jake Knapp was the leader at 14-under 128.

Guan Tianlang was 14 when he made the cut at both the Masters and Zurich Classic of New Orleans in 2013, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

At 16 years, 7 months old, Kim is the fifth-youngest player ever to make a PGA Tour cut, according to the Tour. His feat also comes just two weeks after Miles Russell, 15, became the youngest to make the cut in the 35-year history of the Korn Ferry Tour.

Kim, who is the son of former LPGA Tour player and South Korea native Ji-Hyun Suh, is making his PGA Tour debut. He is the first amateur sponsored by South Korean company CJ Group, which is the title sponsor of the Nelson for the first time.

"I'm happy," Kim said. "I can't wait to get started again tomorrow. I've enjoyed it so much the last couple days, and being here two more days makes it so much sweeter."

A first-time Tour winner earlier this year, Knapp enters the weekend with sole possession of the lead after a second consecutive 7-under 64 in McKinney, Texas. He was a stroke ahead of Troy Merritt (62) and first-round leader Matt Wallace (66) and 2 ahead of Kelly Kraft (66).

"Even when I was doing any of that stuff, I always knew this was what I wanted to do and felt like it's where I should be. Just wasn't there yet," said Knapp, just more than two years removed from working security at a restaurant in his hometown that was also a late-night hotspot. "Just kept working away and sticking at it."

Merritt closed his season-low round with an eagle at the 531-yard ninth hole, where he hit his approach to 16 feet and made the putt. He had birdied four of the previous six holes.

Wallace finished on the same par 5 later in the day and saved par after driving into a native area and then chunking a shot from there to under a bridge.

Hometown favorite Jordan Spieth , the highest-ranked player in the field at No. 20, shot a 70 to finish at 4-under 138 and miss the cut by 2 strokes. On the 16th, his wayward drive ricocheted off the elbow of a male spectator back into the fairway. Spieth still bogeyed the hole then parred his last two.

Defending champion Jason Day closed his round with a 35-foot par putt for a 70 and was just on the cut line at 6-under 136.

Knapp's only bogey through the first two rounds was on his 12th hole Friday, the dogleg No. 3, where his drive went into the left rough. But he birdied four of his last six holes, that stretch starting with a 32-foot putt at the par-3, 192-yard fourth hole.

"Obviously, a putt you're not trying to make," he said. "Hit it a little bit harder than I would've liked and luckily it was on a good line and went in."

Knapp, who turns 30 on May 31, lost his card on the developmental Korn Ferry Tour before taking the part-time job in the fall of 2021 at the place in Costa Mesa, California, where for nearly nine months he worked Thursday, Friday and Saturday nights -- often until 2 or 3 a.m. The former UCLA player would practice and go to the gym in between his work shifts.

He got his third win on PGA Tour Canada in August 2022 and last year earned his PGA Tour card by finishing the season 13th on the Korn Ferry Tour. He won the Mexico Open in his fifth start this season, and his ninth overall, including two as an amateur in 2015.

His PGA Tour biography also touts that he can solve a Rubik's Cube, loves to work out and would pursue a career in the fitness industry if he weren't playing golf.

"Yeah, few interesting ones about me," Knapp said. "I do my best to, I'm kind of a golf-only guy. Just play a lot of golf and practice a lot. That's been my focus for the last four, five years."

At TPC Craig Ranch north of Dallas, Knapp hit 16 of 18 greens each of the first two rounds. He had the same number of putts (28) both days, though the combined distance of those shots on the greens went from 75 feet on Thursday to 139 feet on Friday.

"For the most part hitting it pretty solid and keeping in the right areas. Made it relatively easy on myself." Knapp said. "Early on in the year felt like I was putting well, and for the last month or so the stroke felt the same and ball wasn't going in the hole. ... Nice to see a few more going in."

Merritt opened his round with consecutive birdies before a three-putt bogey at No. 12, though he got that stroke right back with a 52-foot chip-in at No. 13. He made only his second cut in his past six tournaments, finishing 67th in the other one.

"It's fantastic, especially when you hit the ball solid and making a lot putts," said Merritt, who is in his 331st PGA Tour event and last won in 2018. "You're not accidentally there. You've actually played well to get there. I haven't done that. I've accidently backdoored a couple top-10s last fall."

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Sleeper Picks: THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson

Sleeper Picks

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S.H. Kim (+10000) … Although April tilted toward rewarding the shortest odds on the board among winners and thus a diversion from the theme that opened the season, he would not be that at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson. This also would require the 25-year-old from South Korea to sharpen his irons. However, he’s twice a winner abroad, so a victory this week would be unprecedented for him only on the PGA TOUR. He debuted at TPC Craig Ranch last year where a third-round 74 spoiled an otherwise strong performance, so there’s an opportunity for redemption. He recently finished T14 in the Hill Country of the Valero Texas Open. But again, holding his own on approach is the key. He’s 27th on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Putting and sixth in converting greens in regulation into par breakers, so he’s near the top of the class as it concerns the second component of the shootout.

How to bet on the Favorites at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson

Thomas Detry (+700) … While a T8 alongside Robert MacIntyre at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans is valuable, the lefty from Scotland arguably needed it more than the Belgian. Detry has enjoyed a more lucrative experience as a sophomore, already having matched his rookie season’s total of three top 10s. The first two of 2024 were top fives, thus the reach for another in his first appearance at TPC Craig Ranch. He comps a little like S.H. Kim above except that Detry’s mid-range game is stronger all the while still slotting 18th in Strokes Gained: Putting and 10th in converting GIR into par breakers. So, if compelled, swap. Detry is +4000 as the outright and Kim is +1800 for a top five.

Peter Kuest (+650) … He’s at it again and it’s come full circle. The 25-year-old parlayed surviving a 5-for-1 playoff in the four-spotter at the Valero Texas Open into a T10. That top 10 paid forward into a T9 at the Corales Puntacana Championship, which spilled into a top-10 exemption at TPC Craig Ranch … which is where he launched his surge a year ago with a T14. He led last year’s field in total driving and Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, and he also ranked T15 in greens in regulation and 14th in Strokes Gained: Putting. Oh, he walked it off with a nine-birdie 63.

Doug Ghim (+275) … Sometimes the absence of inspiring form is exactly what we want. This is one of those times. Since connecting five top 20s to conclude the astronomical winter, he’s just 2-for-4 and without a top 40 in individual competition. File that under small sample size. The product of the University of Texas has a pair of top 20s in this tournament, including a T19 at TPC Craig Ranch last year immediately following a similar skid. He remains among the strongest from tee to green and he doesn’t waste shots with the putter.

Nico Echavarria (+225) … There are many candidates for this finish, but he’s remained the longest among the subset since the odds were released. (Others will appear in Wednesday’s Golfbet Insider.) He and Max Greyserman collaborated for a T4 at the Zurich Classic, but Echavarria has flashed form repeatedly in individual competition in his second season with a PGA TOUR card. All five of his top 60s among seven paydays are top 25s, including a T14 two weeks ago at the Corales Puntacana. Currently inside the top 50 on TOUR in greens in regulation, Strokes Gained: Putting, converting GIR in par breakers, par-3 scoring and par-4 scoring.

Odds were sourced at BetMGM.

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Rob Bolton is a Golfbet columnist for the PGA TOUR. The Chicagoland native has been playing fantasy golf since 1994, so he was just waiting for the Internet to catch up with him. Follow Rob Bolton on Twitter .