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Tour Championship odds, expert picks, sleepers: Expect Rory McIlroy to shine at East Lake again

The top 30 players in the final FedEx Cup rankings are headed to Atlanta for the Tour Championship at East Lake Country Club. Watching Tyrrell Hatton and Jordan Spieth wrestle with not being in control of their destiny while staying in the top 30 of the FedEx Cup standings on Sunday of the BMW Championship made for some great dramatic television.

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East Lake Country Club has been the official home of the Tour Championship since 2004 and is a Donald Ross design that has been updated twice by Rees Jones, making it stand out from other Ross designs. The Par 70 layout measures over 7,350 yards and features tight fairways and fast greens. Last year it played easier than it had in years due to soft conditions. This year the temperatures will be into the high 90s throughout, with rain only expected on Sunday.

Scottie Scheffler comes into the Tour Championship in first place in the standings despite being in the middle of one of the coldest streaks of putting from a top-class player I can remember. He starts the tournament with a 2-shot lead on his next closest competitor, Viktor Hovland, and he will need that and more to hold off the field if he is going to putt the way he has all season. Scheffler struck the ball so purely from tee to green in 2022-2023 that he can be mentioned in the same breath as Tiger Woods during his historic run in 2000.

If Scottie Scheffler hits 62 or more greens in regulation this week, he will be the first player to finish a PGA Tour season with a GIR percentage of 75% or higher since Tiger Woods in 2000. — Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) August 21, 2023

Tournament winner (strokes added)

Tournament winner bets are tricky with how the Tour Championship is set up, but I think there is some value to be had in some of the bets. Here are the starting positions for each golfer this week and how the tournament works.

Viktor Hovland +500 won the BMW Championship with an amazing course record 61 on Sunday while shooting a 28 on the back 9. His putter was on fire all day and he managed to avoid the big mistakes he made the week before. Hovland starts the week only two strokes back from Scheffler and looks to be in complete control of his game. We cashed a decent ticket with him last week at +1600 and I don’t mind backing him again this week at +500 with a smaller bet.

Max Homa +3500 had a very interesting week at the BMW Championship. He had the stress of a fan helping to cause a major mistake and he also went low with a 62 to set him up to contend on the weekend. I don’t know if his accuracy issues will be a problem this week as he usually hits less than 60 percent of his fairways and driving accuracy is a key statistic each year at East Lake, but he did finish T5 here last year and these are good odds for a player in good form.

Tournament winner (no bonus strokes)

Rory McIlroy +550 has claimed the FedEx Cup title three times and looks poised to push for his fourth and become the first back-to-back winner as he tries to defend his title this year. My model puts him neck and neck with Scheffler by Sunday, even though Scheffler has a three-stroke lead on him before they even tee off this week. McIlroy has overcome five and six-stroke advantages the two times he has won since this tournament format was implemented in 2019. It did take a bit of a meltdown from Scheffler on Sunday in 2022 for him to win.

Jon Rahm +1000 hasn’t won a FedEx Cup Playoff yet. He has a share of the low gross alongside Kevin Na in 2021.

Top ten bet

Xander Schauffele -115 will start outside of the top 10 this week by 1 stroke, but has had an incredible record at East Lake Country Club, gaining over 32 strokes in his career. I don’t mind this number when looking for Xander to push for a top-10 finish.

Scottie Scheffler $13,400 gained more than 14 strokes from tee to green at the BMW Championship, but lost due to a faulty putter and an unbelievable round from Hovland on Sunday. Since the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March, he has gained more than 9 strokes from tee to green in every tournament he has played, except the St. Jude Championship. Scheffler and Rory are tough to fit into lineups this week, but you are going to have to pick one.

Rory McIlroy $13,000 has won the FedEx Cup Playoffs three times and has overcome large deficits in starting strokes in his last two Tour Championship wins. He is tied with Scheffler in my projections and rankings and we are getting him at a $400 discount. I’m leaning toward playing Rory more this week unless I see some crazy ownership projection on Wednesday.

Viktor Hovland $12,500 See above.

Max Homa $10,900 See above.

Patrick Cantlay $10,800 is a $2,600 discount from Scheffler and his accuracy off the tee and tee-to-green statistics put him right behind Hovland over his last 36 rounds, which places him as the fourth-best play this week. He lost in a playoff two weeks ago and played well at the BMW Championship despite having a really poor week on the greens. Xander will suck up so much ownership this week that Cantlay should be a nice pivot, even if you have to dip down into the 6K range at some point.

Xander Schauffele $10,500 See above.

Tommy Fleetwood $8,800 dropped off the pace a little last week and that gets us a nice $900 price drop for a course that might fit his game just a little better. Too many people will consider playing Sungjae Im in this price range, and Fleetwood would be a nice option for a pivot.

Sungjae Im $8,500 is coming off of back-to-back top seven finishes in the playoffs and gained strokes across the board last week. He finished T2 here last year in softer conditions and seems to enjoy playing in Florida and Georgia. I’m a big fan of Im and wouldn’t be surprised if he kept up his solid play this week. This price range will be key this week.

Russell Henley $8,300 has three straight top-ten finishes with gains across the board in every major statistical category, except a slight loss in putting at the BMW Championship. The Georgia native has to be excited to tee it up in the Tour Championship in Atlanta, finally.

Corey Conners $7,900 is getting hot at the right time and is coming off a nice T10 at the BMW Championship, where he gained 5.6 strokes tee to green. Conners hasn’t fared well at the Tour Championship, but he’s in such good form from tee to green that I don’t mind putting him in my lineups.

Tom Kim $7,900 looks healthy after injuring his ankle and is a nice statistical fit for East Lake Country Club. Kim has been riding a hot putter for the last few weeks which could give him the edge in this price range.

Tyrrell Hatton $6,900 finished seventh here in 2020 and has to be thrilled to be back this year after struggling a bit to close out the season. His statistics last week at the BMW Championship look like an outlier regarding his season. He lost almost 6 strokes from tee to green as the pressure of being on the edge of missing the Tour Championship may have gotten to him. I’m willing to give him a chance as it could be a freeroll for him after backing into the top 30.

Jordan Spieth $6,700 has struggled on approach the last two weeks, but this seems like a bit of a miss-price. His short game kept him afloat at the St. Jude Championship and may also play a big role this week.

(Photo of Rory McIlory: Brian Spurlock / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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Tour Championship Betting Picks and Predictions

The PGA Tour is in Atlanta, Georgia, for the Tour Championship. OddsChecker's golf handicapper and expert Andy Lack gives us his best picks for the 2023 Tour Championship.

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The remaining 30 players on the PGA Tour head to Atlanta, Georgia for the final event of the 2022-2023 season. This tournament has undergone a number of structural changes over the years. Starting in 2007, it was the final event of the four tournament FedEx Cup playoffs, with eligibility determined by FedEx Cup points accumulated throughout the season. From 2019 onward, the FedEx Cup was reduced to three events, and the Tour Championship moved from mid September to late August. What also changed in 2019 was the addition of a staggered start. The PGA Tour wanted to ensure that the winner of the tournament this week would also be the winner of the FedEx Cup. 

The player with the most FedEx Cup points leading into this week ( Scottie Scheffler ) will begin the tournament at 10-under par. The player with the second most points ( Viktor Hovland ) will begin at eight under par. The player with the third most points ( Rory McIlroy ) will begin at seven under par, and so on down to the fifth at five under par. Player ranked six through 10 will begin at four under, 11 through 15 will begin at three under, and so on, all the way down to numbers 26-30, who will begin at even par. East Lake Golf Club has been the Tour Championship’s home since 2004, and it is once again sure to provide a stern test for the game’s very best.

Before we get into our picks for the Tour Championship, make sure to take a moment to check out these awesome sports betting offers for this week. We have teamed up with OddsChecker to ensure that you claim $1000s in first-bet bonuses so that you can bet on these 2023 Tour Championship selections with more confidence this week.

Tour Championship: Course Preview

East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia was designed by Donald Ross in 1913, but it received a substantial renovation by Rees Jones over the last fifteen years. Rees enacted his usual method of pinching in the fairways, adding bunkers and adding length, and East Lake now features the most narrow fairways on the PGA Tour. Jones’ methods have not necessarily made the course more challenging however, as last year it ranked 24th out of 38 courses in scoring difficulty, and we saw 17 rounds of 65 or better. Of course, much of that has to do with the fact that much of the fat has been trimmed, and all 30 players that have made it to this week are here for a reason. 

East Lake still features some gnarly and unpredictable Bermuda rough, and it ranked ninth out of 38 courses in missed fairway penalty, and sixth out of 38 courses in rough penalty. Unlike other mid scoring to tougher courses Bermuda courses such as TPC Southwind, TPC Sawgrass, and PGA National, East Lake is not defined by its water hazards. Water only comes into play on four holes and East Lake ranked 32nd out of 38 courses last year in penalty strokes. East Lake is a death by 1,000 paper cuts course, far more in the same vein as Innisbrook than the aforementioned water intensive tracks. 

Outside of the Bermuda rough, East Lake’s greatest defense is its stout quartet of par threes, which all play over 200 yards. While playing from the fairway is certainly essential at the Donald Ross design, nearly 40% of strokes gained over the last two years have come via approach. We’ve even seen inaccurate drivers find some modicum of success here with elite approach play. The green complexes here, unlike other Ross courses, are actually incredibly benign and provide very little pushback. East Lake ranked amongst the easiest on the PGA Tour last year in strokes gained around the green and putting difficulty. The formula this week is accurate driving combined with a mix of precise short iron and long iron play. The starting strokes obviously throws an interesting wrench into the betting markets this week, but East Lake remains a proper ball-striker’s course where we can take our chances with the flat-stick.

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Tour Championship Key Stats

• Driving Accuracy Percentage
• Recent Approach Play
• Strokes Gained Tee to Green: Bermuda Courses

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Tour Championship: Outright Winner

Scottie Scheffler (+162) (Bet $100 to collect $262) Bet365 has the best Scottie Scheffler odds

There is really only one fitting solution to this PGA Tour season, and that’s Scottie Scheffler running away with the FedEx Cup after his historic ball-striking run. With another top-five finish at the BMW, his 12th of the season, Scheffler was up to his old tricks once again. The former Masters Champion gained over 13 strokes ball-striking at Olympia Fields, which is the best that he’s hit the ball since the Memorial. Once again, his flat-stick prevented him from crossing the finish line. 

Fortunately for him, East Lake features some of the easiest and most straightforward greens on the PGA Tour, and it is a difficult golf course to chase on. Scheffler generally spots a stroke or two on the field every week with his putter while lapping the field in tee to green. Even if he gives back one or two on the greens, it’s hard to imagine that anyone catches him on this golf course. Scheffler remains the number one driver of the ball, and number one approach player in this entire field, and East Lake is the perfect golf course to accentuate his ball-striking prowess and mask his putting woes. We’re due for a runaway, and this is the week we’ll get it.

As you can see, it is imperative that you compare the  Tour Championship odds at OddsChecker.

Scottie Scheffler is now best-priced at +162 at Bet365, +150 at BetRivers, +140 at DraftKings, and +135 at FanDuel, a stark $27 to $12 difference in returns. Make sure to pick the best sportsbook for your Scottie Scheffler pick with OddsChecker.

Russell Henley (Without Starting Strokes) (+3300) (Bet $100 to collect $3,400) Go to Bet365 to get the best Russell Henley odds

Considering I feel strongly that Scottie Scheffler is going to run away with the actual FedEx Cup, let’s turn our attention to hunting for value in the “Without Starting Strokes” market. While it is to let fly under the radar, there are few players in the world playing better golf right now than Russell Henley. The Georgia alumni just put together his third top-10 finish in a row at the BMW Championship, where he finished second in an elite field to only Scottie Scheffler in tee to green. Henley now travels to a golf course in East Lake that should be far better suited for his game than Olympia Fields. 

The three-time PGA Tour winner is one of the biggest risers both from tee to green and with the flat stick when placed on Bermuda golf courses, and his four top-10 finishes in a row at the Donald Ross-designed Sedgefield Country Club should be translatable to success at East Lake as well. While Henley has not played the Atlanta staple since 2017, he has a 12th and a third in two starts at East Lake, gaining over four strokes to the field in both occurrences. This is unsurprising, considering that he is the only player to rank top-five in this field in both accuracy and overall approach play. I am completely enamored by Henley’s course fit, and I see a tremendous amount of value on him to shoot the lowest 72 hole score in his native state of Georgia.

A PGA Tour writer and podcaster from Manhattan, New York, Andy Lack has contributed to sites such as Golf Digest, GolfWRX, OddsChecker Rotoballer, the Score, and now Golf Monthly. Andy is also the host of a golf betting and daily fantasy podcast, Inside Golf Podcast, as well as "The Scramble” with Rick Gehman, and a recurring guest on the Pat Mayo Experience. When he’s not writing, Andy can likely be found somewhere on a golf course pursuing his lifelong dream of qualifying for the U.S. Amateur.

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2023 Tour Championship Expert Picks: Trust the chasing pack

By brett hoffman | aug 23, 2023.

We’ve reached the Tour Championship, the final tournament of the PGA Tour season.

The top 30 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings descend on the renowned East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta. This tournament features the largest purse in golf, $70M, with the winner cashing $18M.

The Tour Championship features a starting strokes format, meaning the leader of the season-long FedEx Cup standings, Scottie Scheffler, begins the tournament at 10 under par, with those behind him starting with scores on a staggered scale. (No. 2, Viktor Hovland, starts at 8 under, No. 3, Rory McIlroy, at 7 under, etc., all the way down to the final five in the standings, who begin at even par, 10 shots behind Scheffler.)

The golfer who finishes the tournament with the lowest score, incorporating the starting strokes, will win both the Tour Championship and the FedEx Cup.

The betting market is offering two options to bet; one is factoring in starting strokes and the other is betting on the winner without starting strokes. For this betting preview, the focus is on Winner Without Starting Strokes , and we’re targeting 3 players in Atlanta.

2023 Tour Championship: Picks and Best Bets for East Lake.

Note: All listed odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. For more betting content and insights for all sports check out Betsided.

(Tournament Winner Without Starting Strokes)

Sungjae Im (+3500)

The South Korean ace famously torched East Lake to end the 2022 season, nearly winning the tournament despite starting at 4 under, 6 shots back. The sun is starting to rise at the most critical point of the season (Finished 7th at the BMW, and 6th in Memphis).

Im lives in Atlanta too, so he’ll be comfortable. Sungjae has the ammo to track down the leaders.

Jordan Spieth (+3500)

When everyone jumps off the Jordan roller coaster, that’s when I like to ride it. Spieth will begin play at even par, so he’ll be playing loose and with house money, making him a danger man.

Spieth excels at East Lake, he won here in 2015, finished T2 in 2013, and T7 in 2017. With tons of Tour Championship experience, Spieth will climb up the board in Atlanta this weekend.

Next. 2023 Tour Championship Power Rankings. dark

Tom Kim (+4000)

This will be Tom Kim’s maiden voyage to East Lake, so no course history to lean on, but that hasn’t stopped the young man in the past. Tom Kim has recorded wins at two properties he never played on before ( Sedgefield at the Wyndham Championship in 2022, and TPC Summerlin at the 2022 Shriners Children’s Open).

Kim has been flashing lately, posting three top 10s in his last 4 starts, and he certainly has the moxie to navigate East Lake and the big stage.

2023 Tour Championship expert picks, betting rankings and fantasy golf tips

The 2023 Tour Championship is here, and we're back with our PGA Tour expert picks and betting tips for the PGA Tour event at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Ga.

Every week, we share our PGA Tour player rankings, and they are agnostic of competition. Whether you're betting on golf, playing in a fantasy golf leagues or competing in a DFS (DraftKings, FanDuel) event, our picks highlight the top players to watch this week.

Here are our 2023 Tour Championship rankings and expert picks, as we do each week of the PGA Tour season.

2023 Tour Championship preview

The Tour Championship is this week, and the playoffs conclude this week with the PGA Tour stop in Atlanta at East Lake. Of course, we have the staggered strokes system to start, so the top-ranked players have an advantage. However, we're looking at our top 10 as the 10 best players before starting strokes come into play.

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2023 Tour Championship rankings: Top 10 expert picks

1. Rory McIlroy : Rory has been consistently strong since late spring, and he's the favorite to win a fourth FedEx Cup.

2. Scottie Scheffler : Scheffler fixed some of the woes of the last few weeks, and he's out for revenge after punting this away last year.

3. Viktor Hovland : Hovland has evolved into a totally different player in the last 12-13 months, and he can win anywhere at anytime.

4. Jon Rahm : Rahm has the driving game that should thrive in this environment, and he has some good Georgia vibes this year.

5. Max Homa : Homa has been solid for several months, and he's still very much in the FedEx Cup fight.

6. Patrick Cantlay : Cantlay is a tremendous PGA Tour-style player, and that should extend here to the season finale.

7. Brian Harman : The Open champion knocked off the rust at Olympia Fields, and he might be fresh for East Lake.

8. Xander Schauffele : Xander keeps putting himself into decent position going into the last round of the year, so maybe he'll do that again.

9. Sungjae Im : Sungjae continues to play just shy of brilliant golf, and he keeps finding a way into the Tour Championship.

10. Russell Henley : Henley has been brilliant the last several weeks, and he's hanging around some elite company.

About the author

Ryan Ballengee

Ryan Ballengee is founder and editor of Golf News Net. He has been writing and broadcasting about golf for nearly 20 years. Ballengee lives in the Washington, D.C. area with his family. He is currently a +2.6 USGA handicap, and he has covered dozens of major championships and professional golf tournaments. He likes writing about golf and making it more accessible by answering the complex questions fans have about the pro game or who want to understand how to play golf better.

Ryan talks about golf on various social platforms:

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Expert Picks: TOUR Championship

Expert Picks

WILMINGTON, DELAWARE - AUGUST 19: Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland plays his shot from the seventh tee during the second round of the BMW Championship at Wilmington Country Club on August 19, 2022 in Wilmington, Delaware. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

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Aside from the experts below, Fantasy Insider Rob Bolton breaks down the field at this year's TOUR Championship in this week's edition of the Power Rankings . For more fantasy, check out Rookie Ranking , Qualifiers and Reshuffle .

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Joining the league is simple. Just click here to sign up or log in. Once you create a team, click the "LEAGUES" tab. Then click on "FEATURED," and then on the PGA TOUR Experts league that populates.

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2023 Tour Championship Predictions, PGA Expert Golf Picks, Field & Odds

• Author: Mark Lammey, Spotlight Sports

It’s finally here - the Tour Championship. After back-to-back $20 million events featuring only the top 70 and 50 golfers in the world, we’re now down to the top 30 to officially crown a FedEx champion. The format is quite different from a regular tournament, so we’ll be breaking that down for you leading into our 2023 Tour Championship predictions.

We’ll also be detailing how you can use our 2023 Tour Championship predictions to claim a brand new Caesars Sportsbook sign-up offer for a guaranteed $250 bonus, so we’ll get you all set for a great week ahead.

2023 TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP PREDICTION: Jon Rahm to win (+850 at Caesars Sportsbook)

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Notable Golfers in the PGA Tour Championship Field for 2023

As mentioned, only the top 30 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings will be on the course this week. That means nearly every golfer is of note - whether it’s world #1 Scottie Scheffler in both rankings or fan-favorite Rory McIlroy - the household names will be in action.

Some of the names that are atop the FedEx Cup standings but not the official world rankings are guys like Lucas Glover, who won two weeks ago, Keegan Bradley, Corey Conners, Nick Taylor and Emiliano Grillo.

2023 Tour Championship Predictions for PGA

Last week’s BMW Championship was a perfect demonstration of these last few tournaments of the year being all about the world’s top-ranked golfers. Viktor Hovland was able to win the event, Scottie Scheffler finished tied for second and Rory McIlroy finished third. Those are three of the top five golfers in terms of the world golf rankings.

Of course, this week is all about the FedEx Cup standings, as the world’s top 30 tee off at East Lake Golf Course in Atlanta, Georgia. It’s McIlroy who will be defending his title, and he’s also won it twice in the last four years. Unlike the last two tournaments, the venue does not rotate locations, so that recent history absolutely plays a part in making any 2023 Tour Championship predictions.

Along with that is the importance of the format, so let’s touch on that as we go through analysis for our outright winner pick.

PGA Best Bets & Expert Golf Picks for 2023 Tour Championship: Jon Rahm to Win

The Tour Championship is designed to give the points leader a clear advantage in being named champion. The FedEx Cup points leader (Scheffler) will begin the week at 10 under par, and each of the top five will follow afterwards (second place starts -9, third place starts -8, etc.).

Then, players six through 10 start at -4, 11 through 15 at -3 and down to players 26-30 starting at even par. Therefore, it’s no surprise that the odds are so short for the guys at the top (+150 for Scheffler). So, the question becomes, can anyone overcome the handicap disadvantage?

If there’s anyone who we believe can do so that is not too far behind and still has valuable odds, it’s Jon Rahm. The Spaniard won the 2023 Masters, as is fourth in the FedEx Cup standings. That means he’ll be starting at -7, just three strokes behind Scheffler. He didn’t have the strongest tournament last week overall , but he ended it with a solid -3 final round.

It’s also not as if the Masters was the Spaniard’s only win this season. Rahm has won four events this year, finished top five eight times and top 10 an incredible 11 times. He also shines brightest when the stage is biggest. To go along with his Masters win, he finished second at The Open Championship and tied-10th at the US Open.

With such a clutch gene, the best bet from our 2023 Tour Championship predictions is for Jon Rahm to win (+850 at Caesars Sportsbook) .

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Latest PGA Tour Championship Betting Odds for 2023 Available at Caesars

In terms of our 2023 Tour Championship predictions, Jon Rahm to win has +850 odds at Caesars Sportsbook , so a $10 wager profits $85 as long as he wins the tournament. You can also see each of the top favorites to win this week below:

• Scottie Scheffler: +130
• Rory McIlroy: +330
• Viktor Hovland: +450
• Jon Rahm: +850
• Patrick Cantlay: +1800
• Xander Schauffele: +3000
• Max Homa: +3500
• Lucas Glover: +4500
• Matt Fitzpatrick: +5500
• Brian Harman: +6000
• Wyndham Clark: +6500

Who Won the PGA BMW Championship Last Week?

It was Hovland that came out on top this past weekend after an incredible -7 on the back nine of the last round. While we didn’t get a playoff hole in back-to-back weeks, it was still a thrilling finish that went down to the wire.

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TOUR Championship picks 2023: Expert picks, best bets for PGA Tour golf this week

By cody williams | aug 28, 2023, 2:03 pm edt.

TOUR Championship picks and best bets at East Lake this week with an outright, Top 5, One and Done, and more PGA Tour expert picks for golf.

We’ve finally arrived at the end of the PGA Tour season and the FedEx Cup Playoffs with the TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club. It will also be the final time we see this iteration of the golf course in Atlanta as renovations are expected to begin as soon as the FedEx Cup champion is crowned.

As has been the case for the past few years now, the players will begin with staggered scoring and starting strokes. Scottie Scheffler is in front as the leader in the FedEx Cup standings at -10 with Viktor Hovland, who we hit as an outright winner at the BMW, coming in at -8. The rest of the field fills out with Rory McIlroy at -7 and on down the board.

Hovland was our only hit last week but that still put us up +4.74 units with our PGA Tour expert picks and best bets, up more than 16 units on the season. For our TOUR Championship picks, we won’t be going as heavy with a longshot pick or anything of that ilk, but will be upping our outright to a full unit play.

Let’s finish strong with our TOUR Championship picks and best bets for this week at East Lake.

Note:  All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook unless otherwise noted. Odds will be updated when made available. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided .

Golf betting record in 2023 through BMW Championship: 48-142-2, +16.096 units (4-49 on outrights, 0.5 unit bets, 0.1 unit longshot bets | +4.74 units at BMW) One-and-Done record in 2023: $9,443,650.65 (Corey Conners at BMW, $480,600)

PGA Tour expert picks for TOUR Championship: Winner, Top 5, One and Done

Top 5 pick for the TOUR Championship: Xander Schauffele (+300)

Schauffele begins this week at -3, which is good for T11 on the starting leaderboard at East Lake. But the fact of the matter is that he hasn’t finished worse than T5 in any of the past four trips to the TOUR Championship. He plays this golf course extremely well and his form started to show again at the end of last week with a T8 finish. I love for him to make his way up the leaderboard and cash a big one for us this week.

Pick to Win the BMW Championship (1 Unit): Viktor Hovland (+550)

This will make three straight weeks that Hovland has been the outright pick but I’m not backing down. He’s playing tremendous golf and his win last week vaulted him up to second on the starting leaderboard at East Lake. He disappointed at the TOUR Championship last year but had a T5 here in 2021. More importantly, he’s wholly elevated his game. Getting him with the third-best odds on the board despite starting in second is too good to pass up.

One and Done Pick for the TOUR Championship: Max Homa

Full disclosure, Homa was essentially the only player who is starting well up the leaderboard that I haven’t used for the One and Done this year. That’s why he’s the pick, but the fact that he showed some real flashes of form the past couple of weeks makes me more confident in the pick than I would’ve been otherwise.

TOUR Championship picks and best bets

Lucas Glover to finish Top 10 (+120)

Lucas Glover, though he was a pedestrian T22 last week, has won two of the last three tournaments to now start in fifth at the TOUR Championship at -5. When you then look at his accuracy and ball striking, two things that play here beautifully, I love for him to end up staying at least in the Top 10 and get a big finish and payday to his credit to end the year.

Viktor Hovland to win Group A – Scheffler, Rory, Hovland, Rahm, Cantlay (+450)

We’re doubling down on Hovland again but the odds are enticing. This bet includes starting strokes but I’m more confident in his game than Scheffler, Rory and Rahm with their various issues with putting (Scheffler) or driving accuracy of late (Rory and Rahm). Cantlay has been on point but I also still doubt his big-game hunting abilities. Hovland has no such worries for me, so I’m all about this wager.

Sungjae Im to finish Top Asian (+150)

Sungjae Im, Si Woo Kim and Tom Kim are all starting at East Lake at -2, or T21 on the leaderboard. But Sungjae has some great recent history here, climbing up to second place at the TOUR Championship last year. Moreover, he’s been trending with his play recently in these playoffs too. I love for him to outpace his fellow Asian competitors pretty comfortably, which makes the plus odds too good to overlook.

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Betting Analysis

Tour Championship picks 2022: Why Xander Schauffele will chase down Scottie Scheffler

Another week, another win. After two of our experts – Christopher Powers and Pat Mayo – correctly predicted Will Zalatoris’ victory at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, Powers hit again on Patrick Cantlay at the BMW Championship, as did Lee Alldrick. We’re hot. Scorching hot, some would say.

Unfortunately, the PGA Tour regular season is coming to an end just as we’re starting to peak. Or, to put it another way, it’s ending just in time, because we can’t stay this hot for long.

We can, however, stay hot for one more week. Can anyone catch Scottie Scheffler at this week’s Tour Championship at East Lake? A few of our experts think so, at least in the starting-strokes format. We’ve also selected two winners for the “without” starting strokes format, forgoing our normal top-10 section. Let’s bring this thing home, shall we?

Scroll down to see who we like this week at the 2022 Tour Championship.

RELATED: U.S. Am winner Sam Bennett delivers a message to the haters

Tour Championship picks 2022: Winner WITH starting strokes

Anonymous Caddie Picker of the week : Scottie Scheffler (+225, DraftKings) — I know that’s not going out on a limb at all. But I think he’s the bet. He has proven he can win from ahead. He’s in good form after a narrow miss last week at the BMW. It would be icing on the cake, and he’d lock up POY honors.

Pat Mayo, DraftKings/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst : Xander Schauffele (+550, DraftKings) — I’m backing Xander without starting strokes this week. Considering he’s only starting four strokes behind Scottie Scheffler, I’ll back him in this market, too.

Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor : Xander Schauffele (+650, FanDuel) — Xander’s success at East Lake and in no-cut events isn’t a secret by this point. He’s long and accurate off the tee, a crucial combo for this course, and he is starting at six under. With Will Zalatoris’ withdrawal, that puts him behind just two golfers to start the week.

Rick Gehman, data scientist and RickRunGood.com founder : Patrick Cantlay (+300, DraftKings) — The second half of the season for Cantlay has been nothing short of magnificent. Over his last 11 starts, he has two wins, two runner-up finishes and five more top 15s. Those 42 rounds have produced more than two strokes gained per round. Not only has he been one of the best putters on tour during that stretch, he’s gained at least 0.25 strokes per round in all four major categories. He doesn’t have a flaw in his game and will look to successfully defend his FedEx Cup this week.

Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. managing editor : Rory McIlroy (10-1, PointsBet) — Rory came from five back in 2019 to win by three shots, and given his prodigious length off the tee and his prolonged consistency this summer, he could absolutely do it again.

Christopher Powers, Golf Digest assistant editor : Sam Burns (22-1, DraftKings) — While I do think Scottie wins with ease, I can’t bring myself to bet it. Bermuda Burns at 22-1, however, is very intriguing. He’s only five back, in the prime “lurking” zone, and he has 72 holes to make up the deficit. We’ve seen guys make up bigger deficits in 36 holes, so it’s not out of the question. If he can recapture the scorching-hot iron play we saw in Memphis two weeks ago, he’ll make enough putts to seriously challenge Scheffler and Cantlay at the top.

Lee Alldrick, FanShare Sports : Scottie Scheffler (+225, DraftKings) — Despite his win last week I don’t fancy Cantlay this week which gives Scheffler a four-shot advantage over his next nearest competitor and a six-shot lead over all but four players in the field. That’s a big advantage. I’m happy to take the short odds considering he comes into this event ranked top 10 for SG/putting on Bermuda greens, SG/total at East Lake, SG/total at similar courses and Opportunities Gained over the last two months.

Past results: Golf Digest's betting panel is on FIRE. Last week, after both Christopher Powers and Pat Mayo hit on Will Zalatoris at 22-1 in Memphis, Powers went back-to-back by correctly predicting Patrick Cantlay’s BMW win at 14-1. That gives him four outright hits this season (Joaquin Niemann 60-1 at Riviera; Scottie Scheffler 22-1 at WMPO), which is tied for the most on the panel with Lee Alldrick, who also hit on Cantlay after recently predicting both of Tony Finau’s victories at the 3M Open and Rocket Mortgage Classic as well as Rory McIlroy’s RBC Canadian Open win (8-1). Mayo’s Zalatoris cash was his third of the year, the first coming with Luke List’s 70-1 win at Torrey Pines and the second with McIlroy in Canada. Rick Gehman also picked up two wins in the fall by correctly predicting Sam Burns (16-1) to win the Sanderson Farms Championship and Viktor Hovland (19-1) to win the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba. Brandon Gdula also hit on Hovland at Mayakoba, as well as Justin Thomas at the PGA (16-1), and Stephen Hennessey cashed on Hideki Matsuyama (12-1) at the Zozo Championship.

Listen to Golf Digest's weekly betting podcast, "The Loop," (below) where we interview the industry's leading experts (and sometimes tour pros) to help you make your bets and pick your fantasy lineups. And be sure to subscribe to "The Loop" wherever you get your podcasts!

Tour Championship picks 2022: Winner WITHOUT starting strokes

Caddie: Cameron Young (30-1, DraftKings) — He has played well all year especially in big events with some decent finishes the last two weeks. It’s a golf course where a draw off the tee is very helpful, and he’ll be free-wheeling at least the first couple of days.

Mayo: Xander Schauffele (+750, DraftKings) — The 2017 winner at East Lake (And 2019, 2020 runner up (where he actually had the lowest 72-hole score)) had a hiccup at water logged TPC Southwind but rebounded quite nicely in Delaware. He finished third in SG/ball-striking, notching his third top-five finish over his past five starts. Worth noting, he’s never finished worse than seventh at East Lake in six tries.

Gdula: Viktor Hovland (27-1, FanDuel) — Hovland needs to make up ground in the net competition, as he starts at two under. In two starts at East Lake, he has gained strokes in all three tee-to-green areas in both years. His underlying putting data is really good, and we know he’s a strong birdie-maker.

Gehman: Matthew Fitzpatrick (18-1, DraftKings) — East Lake generally skews as one of the more difficult courses on the PGA Tour schedule and shooting just a few under par each day is likely to put you in contention for the “Shadow Leaderboard” win. Fitzpatrick offers one of the most well-rounded games on tour. He’s gained strokes from tee-to-green in 10 of his last 11 and added more gains with his flat stick in eight of his last nine.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Cameron Smith (20-1, DraftKings) — These odds don’t really make too much sense to me. Smith’s been one of the best players in the world over the past 24 rounds, and approach will be important this week. The only thing that gives me pause is his penchant to miss fairways, but I’m willing to take a gamble on these odds in such a short field.

Powers, Golf Digest: Cameron Young (30-1, DraftKings) — The kid plays with reckless abandon on regular weeks. This week, he’s quite literally being asked to play with reckless abandon in order to have any chance of winning.

Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Xander Schauffele (+750, DraftKings) — Schauffele comes into this event ranked first for SG/total at East Lake and at courses similar to East Lake. It’s not surprising then to see that he has won the lowest 72-hole score here at East Lake twice in the last five years (finishing second, third and seventh the other three times). He also ranks sixth for SG/total in the field this week for SG/total over the last two months so his form is hot, too.

RELATED: Will Zalatoris withdraws from Tour Championship, will also miss Presidents Cup

Tour Championship picks 2022: Longshot/Sleeper to win (without starting strokes)

Caddie: Joaquin Niemann (30-1, DraftKings) — This would be another example of picking a player with a shot shape off the tee. Cameron Young, Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Niemann all have that natural draw shape that will come in handy.

Mayo: Scott Stallings (80-1, DraftKings) — Every year, there’s the one player who fights his way from the back end of the standings, gets hot in August and makes a run towards the FedEx Cup. They rarely end up winning (thanks for nothing 2016 Ryan Moore and 2021 Kevin Na), but sometimes you get Billy Horschel and Bill Haas. While Aaron Wise or Corey Conners may make more sense, there’s no one from this tier hotter than Stallings entering East Lake. Plus, longer odds. That never hurts.

Gdula: Aaron Wise (42-1, FanDuel) — Wise starts at even par and will need to climb to earn points, so the aggression factor isn’t in question. He’s due for big-time putting regression and has above-average birdie-chance numbers.

Gehman: Tony Finau (16-1, DraftKings) — Starting six shots off the lead means that Finau has his work cut out for him, but if anyone is up for the task, it’s him. Finau will need to tap into his ceiling this week, but he has a ceiling higher than anyone else on tour. I’m not even exaggerating. There have only been seven occurrences this year where a golfer has gained 17-plus strokes to the field. Finau has three of them and no other golfer on tour has done it multiple times, per the RickRunGood.com golf database. He’s more than capable of closing this gap with a great week and these odds are too juicy to pass up.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Brian Harman (80-1, FanDuel) — This is a pick that will get nobody excited, but Harman has quietly been one of the most consistent golfers all summer with a third-place at the FedEx St. Jude, a sixth-place at The Open and an eighth at the Travelers. You know he’s going to find fairways, so he should be able to give himself a chance at these juicy odds.

Powers, Golf Digest: Sahith Theegala (80-1, DraftKings) — Last week, Theegala admitted he felt some serious heat on Sunday while he was sneaking his way into East Lake. Now that he’s here and he’s starting at even par, 10 back, he should feel no pressure and he’s free to fire away from the get-go.

Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Tony Finau (16-1, DraftKings) — Finau has been excellent over the last two months. He has two wins under his belt and comes into this event ranked first for SG/tee-to-green. He ranks eighth in the field for SG/total at East Lake and has two seventh-place finishes to his name here.

Tour Championship picks 2022: Players we're fading

Caddie: Tony Finau (14-1, BetRivers) — Sure, he has obviously proven he can play well anywhere. But he loves to cut the driver, and the ultra-fast greens at East Lake could cause him issues.

Mayo: Jon Rahm (12-1, DraftKings) — Too many strokes to claw back from at such short odds .

Gdula: Jon Rahm (14-1, FanDuel) — Rahm was last year’s co-leader in 72-hole scoring, but he’s starting at three under, two shots lower than the only come-from-behind winner we’ve had in this new format. I think he’s in a great position to play well – but not overcoming seven shots on Scheffler, five on Cantlay, etc.

Gehman: Jon Rahm (12-1, DraftKings) — Rahm is stuck in a math problem where he doesn’t necessarily possess the answer. Starting seven shots off the lead, a Rahm victory would be the largest comeback recorded in this format. If we start to calculate the paths to Rahm hoisting the FedEx Cup, we quickly realize that he needs to gain 17 strokes to the field over four rounds. That’s something he’s done exactly once in his career, when he won the 2020 Memorial. Barring the best four rounds of Rahm’s career, it’s unlikely he will find victory in Atlanta.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Jon Rahm (12-1, DraftKings) — Ditto what the others said … he simply needs way too much to happen to make up those seven shots.

Powers, Golf Digest: Jon Rahm (12-1, DraftKings) — Not much to add here that hasn’t already been said.

Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Patrick Cantlay (+300, DraftKings) — Sure, he played very well last week, but East Lake does not suit his game. In 72-hole stroke play here Cantlay has finished in the bottom 10 three out of four tries. It’s not surprising then that he ranks second-to-last in the field this week for SG/total at similar courses. One of the main reasons for this is he is a poor putter on Bermuda greens, ranking just 19th in the field this week for SG/putting on Bermuda greens over the last two years.

RELATED: Tour Championship DFS picks: Why I’m not playing Scottie Scheffler

Tour Championship picks 2022: Matchups

Caddie: Billy Horschel (+105) over Collin Morikawa (DraftKings) — Billy has had success here and unfortunately Collin just cannot seem to find any consistency with the putter.

Mayo: Justin Thomas (+115) over Jon Rahm (DraftKings) — I have both JT and Rahm rated about equal this week, so we’re getting plus money on a coin flip. Thomas doesn’t have the best form at the moment, but in the 72-hole gross portion of this event, he’s finished with a top-10 score in each of his six starts.

Gdula: Scott Stallings (-142) over Sepp Straka (FanDuel) — We’re losing a stroke here to start and laying heavy odds, but Straka is the weakest long-term golfer in this field by a pretty wide margin. Stallings has about 0.7 strokes per round on him in my model, so he can make up that gap.

Gehman: Jordan Spieth (-125) over Max Homa (DraftKings) — Spieth was a roller-coaster again last week, contending for the lead before falling to T-19. Despite his sour weekend, Spieth still notched his third top-20 finish in his last four starts. Homa, who was once the hottest ball-striker on tour this summer, has cooled off significantly. He’s lost strokes on approach in five straight, something he hasn’t done in over two years. Now he heads to East Lake for the first time without his full complement of assets.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Viktor Hovland (-104) over Joaquin Niemann (FanDuel) — This is a bit of a fishy line. Hovland has far superior course history here, with Niemann losing a combined 17 strokes at East Lake in two appearances. Hovland had a fifth-place here last year, so despite oddsmakers hinting that they know something we don’t, I’ll take the bait with the course history.

Powers, Golf Digest: Sam Burns (+195) over Xander Schauffele (DraftKings) — I understand Xander has serious history here, but he’s only one stroke up on Burns, who feasts on Bermuda and has finished inside the top 20 in four of his last eight starts. This is just an absurd price.

Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Corey Conners (+105) over Collin Morikawa (Bet365) — Morikawa was all out of sorts during the final round last week and this seems to be a bit of a trend right now. He comes into this event ranked second-to-last for SG/putting on Bermuda greens over the last two years and sixth-to-last for SG/total over the last two months. Conners on the other hand ranks top 15 for SG/total over the last two months, Opportunities Gained over the last two months and SG/putting on Bermuda greens over the last two years.

Matchup Results from the BMW Championship: Gehman: 1 for 1 (Rahm (-110) over Thomas); Hennessey: 1 for 1 (Scott (-125) over Harman); Powers: 1 for 1 (Cantlay (+100) over McIlroy); Alldrick: 1 for 1 (C. Davis (-110) over Riley); Caddie: 0 for 1; Mayo: 0 for 1; Gdula: 0 for 1

Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Mayo: 27-10-4 (up 15.52 units); Powers: 24-15-4 (up 8.64 units); Caddie: 23-17-3 (up 4.65 units); Alldrick: 23-18-2 (up 2.17 units); Gehman: 19-18-5 (down 0.49 units); Gdula: 20-20-1 (down 1.53 units); Hennessey: 21-21-1 (down 4.4 units) About our experts

Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long- and short-form content, owner of the Mayo Media Network and host of The Pat Mayo Experience. (Subscribe for video or audio .) Mayo ( @ThePME ) was named 2021 Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year by the Fantasy Sports Writing Association, while also being a finalist for Podcast of the Year and Golf Writer of the Year. Mayo won the 2020 FSWA Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and Golf Writer of the Year awards, along with the Fantasy Sports Trade Association Best Sports Betting Analyst award in 2020. He was finalist for four FSWA Awards in 2020 (Best Podcast, Best Video, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). Mayo is on the board of governors at www.fantasynational.com .

Brandon Gdula , managing editor and analyst for NumberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast.

Rick Gehman is the founder of RickRunGood.com and the RickRunGood YouTube Channel, is one of the industry’s leading experts on golf DFS and gambling. Gehman is co-host of the First Cut Podcast and appears regularly on the Pat Mayo Experience golf podcasts. Follow him on Twitter: @RickRunGood .

Lee Alldrick of FanShare Sports started out writing an article highlighting the best bargain plays for fantasy golf under his twitter handle @DKGolfBargains . His success at this prompted FanShare Sports to enlist him as a guest writer, which evolved into him writing the weekly Under The Radar article. As a U.K.-based expert, Alldrick’s insight into European Tour regulars and low priced, low owned plays has provided an invaluable edge for readers when it comes to DFS GPPs.

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Tour Championship odds, expert picks and predictions for the PGA Tour’s final event of the year

The 2020-21 PGA Tour season ends with this week’s Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta. A field made up of the top 30 golfers in the season-long FedEx Cup standings will now compete for the $15 million first-place prize. Below, we look at the 2021 Tour Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions to win.

The Tour Championship begins with starting strokes assigned by the FedEx Cup standings following Patrick Cantlay‘s win at least week’s BMW Championship. Cantlay enters the week atop the standings with Tony Finau, winner of the previous week’s the Northern Trust, in second.

Cantlay will tee off Thursday at 10-under par with a two-stroke lead over Finau. Places three through five will start at 7 under, 6 under and 5 under, respectively. Spots six through 10 start at 4 under, 11-15 at 3 under, 16-20 at 2 under, 21-25 at 1 under and 26-30 will begin at even par. The odds and our picks include these starting strokes.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook ; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 1:30 p.m. ET.

Tour Championship: Who's in and who's out of the FedEx Cup Playoffs finale

Jon rahm (+380).

Rahm will begin the week four shots off the lead at 6 under but that’ll be manageable for the Tour leader in total strokes gained per round on the field. His 2.57 strokes gained per round are a half shot per round better than Cantlay and 0.59 better than Bryson DeChambeau.

The Spaniard slipped from second to fourth in the season-long standings with a T-9 finish last week. It was his sixth straight international top-10 finish, excluding his forced withdrawal from the Memorial Tournament. He remains No. 1 in the Golfweek/Sagarin ranking and the Official World Golf Ranking.

Rahm finished fourth at East Lake last year at minus-17, including starting strokes. It was an awful putting performance, but he has averaged 0.33 strokes gained per round with the flat stick this season.

Tony Finau (+700)

Finau’s a much better bet at odds nearly double those of Rahm and two strokes closer to the pre-tournament leader. He’s 17th in the Golfweek/Sagarin ranking but ninth in the Official World Golf Ranking following his win at the Northern Trust and a T-15 finish last week.

He’s tied for 10th in this field with 16 career rounds played at East Lake and has averaged 2.06 strokes gained on the field per round at this venue to rank tenth among the 30 golfers in attendance. He has just one win this season (and since 2016), but he has three runner-up finishes and three other top-10 showings in 21 events in 2021.

He needs to make up just two strokes over four rounds to force his third playoff of the year.

Rory McIlroy (+2000)

It has proven risky to bet outside of the FedEx Cup leaders since the starting strokes format was introduced in 2019; however, McIlroy, who starts at 16th in the standings at 2 under, is worth a small-unit flier for a 20-1 return on your investment.

The two-time FedEx Cup winner has averaged 2.91 strokes gained on the field per round over 28 rounds at East Lake GC. After bemoaning the labors of the 2020-21 PGA Tour “super” season, McIlroy finished alone in fourth last week for his top North American finish since winning the Wells Fargo Championship in early May.

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com . Please gamble responsibly .

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CJ Cup Byron Nelson betting guide: 5 picks our expert loves this week

Our expert likes Alex Noren's chances this week.

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Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network devoted to sports and sport betting. You can follow on Twitter at  @LasVegasGolfer , and you can read his picks below for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, which gets underway Thursday in McKinney, Texas. Along with Kannon’s recommended plays, you’ll also see data from Chirp,  a free-to-play mobile platform  that features a range of games with enticing prizes, giving fans all kinds of ways to engage in the action without risking any money.

For the fourth straight year, the CJ Cup Byron Nelson will be contested at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas, just about a half-hour north of Dallas. If history holds true, we are in for a birdie-fest this week as the average score of the three prior editions of this tournament has been better than 24-under par.

It looks like weather will be a factor too. Rain and scattered thunderstorms are in the forecast for each day of the event. It appears Thursday and Sunday will also be affected by wind. While moisture and possible electricity in the air could cause delays, any significant amount of rain could potentially soften up this golf course and make scoring even easier.

Weather delays are nearly impossible to predict which in turn makes it very difficult to spot a potential draw bias this week — that is, if either the early-late or late-early start times will catch an advantage. Thus, I have played it straight, handicapping the golf course and the field with all things being equal.

TPC Craig Ranch is a par-71 Tom Weiskopf design that stretches to over 7,400 yards. It features very wide fairways with very little rough and large bentgrass greens. Driving distance is not necessarily required this week but it is more important than driving accuracy, in my opinion. Long approach play will be a factor, as will making the most of the golf course’s long par 4s, and taking advantage of the three par 5s. With another birdie-fest being the expectation, I have also looked at players who excel in making birdies and players who putt at a high level.

2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson odds: Our long-shot pick eyes his second PGA Tour win

Golf courses making the list this week that feature very similar layouts and thus require similar skill sets for success are Port Royal Golf Club (where they play the Bermuda Championship), Memorial Park in Houston, TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas, and Detroit Golf Club, where they hold the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Note that wind is also a typically present weather factor in Bermuda, Las Vegas, and Houston.

In returning to a standard stroke-play format this week, we will also return to playing our selections for both an outright win and a top-20 finish.

Alex Noren (25-1)

Noren has yet to miss a cut in 2024 and, along the way, has racked up six top-25 finishes. He is No. 1 this week on the correlated courses, having collected top-5 finishes at each venue, including a runner-up finish at Port Royal. Over the last 36 rounds, he ranks 17th in this field for both SG: Approach and SG: Putting (bentgrass). He also ranks sixth on Par 4s measuring between 450-500 yards and is eighth for SG: Par 5s. On top of all this, Noren is a very good wind player.

Byeong Hun An (30-1)

An is my only selection this week who is not traditionally a good putter. But off-setting that is the fact that he bombs it off the tee and is No. 1 in this field for Birdies or Better Gained over the last 36 rounds. He is also excellent on lengthy approach shots, ranking in the top 14 for Hole Proximity from 175 to over 200-yards. I also like the form this season with top-20 finishes or better at the Sentry, the Sony Open, Genesis Invitational, Arnold Palmer Invitational, and the Masters.

Adam Schenk (40-1)

When looking at the stats, one has to like the combination of areas of success for Schenk: being upper tier in SG: Off the Tee, on the long Par 4s, and being an excellent putter. Keep that up all week and you just might have an outright winner. In 2023, Schenk had the best season of his career, and he’s held serve for the most part in 2024 with a 17th-place finish in Phoenix, a 19th at the Players Championship, a fifth-place finish at the Valero Texas Open, followed by a 12th at the Masters.

Mackenzie Hughes (45-1)

Over the last 36 rounds, Hughes ranks 26th in this field on the 450-500 yard Par 4s and is fourth for SG: Par 5s. Like Schenk and Noren, he too is one of the best putters in this field, ranking 14th out of 156 players. The form this season has been very strong, only missing one cut in 10 starts and finishing inside the top 40 seven times, including a third-place finish at the Valspar Championship and a 14th in Houston, both happening as recently as last month. Already a two-time career winner on Tour, last year Hughes finished 14th at TPC Craig Ranch.

Maverick McNealy (55-1)

Like Hughes, McNealy too has only missed one cut this season in 10 stroke-play event starts, with top-10 finishes at both the WM Phoenix Open and the Players Championship. Similar to Schenk’s numbers, McNealy is top-tier in this week’s rankings for SG: Off the Tee, on the long Par 4s, and is No. 2 in this field for SG: Putting (bentgrass) over the last 36 rounds. On the correlated courses, McNealy has top-10 finishes at TPC Summerlin and Detroit Golf Club, and has two top-20 finishes at Memorial Park in Houston.

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2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson predictions, expert picks, odds, field rankings, golf best bets at TPC Craig Ranch

The pga tour returns to the lone star state this week as the latest full-field event takes center stage.

A busy stretch of golf continues on the PGA Tour this week as players travel to TPC Craig Ranch for the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson. Taking to the par-71 layout for the fourth time in tournament history, players should expect ideal scoring conditions and plenty of birdies with a winning score potentially approaching 30 under.

Last year, it was Jason Day who emerged victorious as the Australian jumped back into the winner's circle for the first time in over five years. Now, he hopes to become the first golfer since K.H. Lee in 2022 to defend his Byron Nelson title

Day leads a large international contingent which includes Adam Scott, Min Woo Lee, Sungjae Im and a couple of Dallas-area residents in Tom Kim and Si Woo Kim. The Kims aren't the only local flavor to be making a tournament appearance; native Texan Jordan Spieth will also be in the field.

Spieth enters the Byron Nelson, a tournament where he made his PGA Tour debut as a high schooler many moons ago, without a ton of form. While the game has been tough for him, Spieth should relish the opportunity to play on home soil, especially since he nearly won this event a couple years ago. 

While two weeks still separate players from the second major championship of the season, the CJ Cup Byron Nelson will represent the last call for preparation for some as next week's Wells Fargo Championship welcomes a limited field to Quail Hollow for a signature event.

2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson schedule

Dates:  May 2-5 |  Location:  TPC Craig Ranch — McKinney, Texas Par:  71 |  Yardage:  7,414 |  Purse:  $9,500,000

2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson field, odds

• Jordan Spieth (14-1): The hometown kid has come close to taking down the Byron Nelson but has yet to add this trophy to his mantle. Spieth has found a little juice ever since the tournament transitioned to TPC Craig Ranch; he notched a top 10 in his first go around and finished runner-up to K.H. Lee in 2022. What he does this time is anyone's best guess as his form has been lackadaisical and his wrist has been nagging him. In his last seven starts, Spieth has one top 10, three missed cuts and a disqualification. He needs to find something in his game and fast.
• Si Woo Kim (16-1)
• Jason Day (20-1): The defending champion has been hit-or-miss since claiming his second Byron Nelson crown. While he has a number of quality results over the last year, Day has struggled with some consistency and arrives at TPC Craig Ranch looking to find something in his iron play specifically. The former world No. 1 has lost strokes on approach in four of his last five starts but has been buoyed by a strong effort from the putter. If he hopes to keep up in this birdie barrage, Day will need to squeeze more out of those scoring clubs.
• Adam Scott (22-1)
• Byeong Hun An (25-1)
• Alex Noren (25-1)
• Min Woo Lee (25-1): It hasn't been the best first full season on the PGA Tour for Lee, but he has flashed signs. He comes into Texas off a quality Masters start where he hit his driver brilliantly and found a little something with the irons. If those clubs continue to cooperate, Lee should have his way with the wide-open nature of TPC Craig Ranch. He's missed only one cut in 2024 but only has one top 20 -- a runner-up finish at the Cognizant Classic in early March.
• Sungjae Im (28-1): Im has been experiencing a difficult start to 2024, but he may be back on the upward trajectory following a quick trip to his native South Korea. The 26-year-old snatched a victory on the Korean Tour and continued a mini spurt of solid play that includes a T12 at the RBC Heritage. His game sets up well for TPC Craig Ranch, but between four straight weeks of action and worldwide travel, it may be a difficult ask.
• Tom Hoge (28-1)
• Tom Kim (28-1): Kim looks to be trending towards the type of player who picked off three early wins in his PGA Tour career. His iron play shined at Augusta National where he finished with a final-round 66, and he carried this over to Hilton Head where he finished T18. This marks Kim's third appearance in this tournament after finishing T17 in his debut and T34 a season ago.

2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson expert picks

Who will win the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, and which longshots will stun the golfing world?  Visit SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard and best bets , all from the model that's nailed 11 golf majors and is up more than $9,000 since June 2020.

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Hideki Matsuyama of Japan plays his shot from the fourth tee during the final round of the AT&T ... [+] Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch on May 14, 2023 in McKinney, Texas. (Photo by Tim Heitman/Getty Images)

The PGA Tour returns to stroke play format at The CJ Cup Byron Nelson this week following the team pairing win last week by Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry in the Zurich Classic . The 156 player field for the Byron Nelson includes just Jordan Spieth (20), Jason Day (22) and Tom Kim (23) from the top 25 players in the world golf rankings after Will Zalatoris (30) withdrew Tuesday after a flare-up in his back.

The top players will attack wide open Zoysia fairways and large bentgrass greens in a birdie-fest and putting contest this week. TPC Craig Ranch is the host course for the fourth time, and the 7,414 yard course now plays to Par 71 with the 12th hole shortened from 547 yards (Par 5) to 493 yards (Par 4). Rowlett Creek runs through the property and crosses 14 of the 18 holes.

TPC Craig Ranch is located in McKinney about 30 miles north of Dallas, where FanDuel ambassador Jordan Spieth lives and enters as the tournament favorite. Close behind is 2023 Byron Nelson champion Jason Day. Longshot K.H. Lee won the other two events held at TPC Craig Ranch.

The field lacks star power as most of the top pros prepare for next week’s Wells Fargo Championship in Charlotte followed by the PGA Championship at Jack Nicklaus-designed Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville.

CJ Cup Byron Nelson Golf Odds And Favorites

Leading favorites and contenders golf odds from FanDuel Sportsbook refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting.

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• +1400: Jordan Spieth
• +1600: Si Woo Kim
• +2000: Jason Day (defending champion)
• +2200: Alex Noren, Min Woo Lee, Adam Scott
• +2500: Byeong Hun An, Stephen Jaeger
• +2800: Tom Kim, Sungjae Im, Tom Hoge
• +3500: Keith Mitchell, Adam Schenk
• +4000: Mackenzie Hughes, Thomas Detry
• +5000: Maverick McNealy, K.H. Lee
• +5500: Mark Hubbard
• +6000: Seamus Power, Davis Thompson, Beau Hossler
• +6500: Ben Griffin, Aaron Rai
• +7000: Doug Ghim
• +7500: Sam Stevens
• +8000: Taylor Pendrith, Kevin Yu, Nate Lashley
• +8000: Justin Lower, C.T. Pan, Chad Kim
• +9000: Jake Knapp, Ryan Fox, Matti Schmid, Luke List

72 Hole Winning Score (Par 71): Over/Under 260.5

Some key strokes gained stats and performance metrics to consider this week include:

• SG: Approach and Total (easy scoring conditions)
• SG: Putting and Off the Tee
• Birdies or Better Gained
• Proximity to hole from 200+ yards

Jordan Spieth plays his shot from the 14th tee during the final round of the Byron Nelson tournament ... [+] at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)

Tom Hoge leads the field in SG: Approach and No. 2 in SG: Total and No. 13 in SG: Putting over his last 36 rounds. Hoge’s best finish in three starts at TPC Craig’s Ranch is T17 in 2022 when he shot 18-under par. Jordan Spieth and K.H. Lee have the best Strokes Gained stats profiles in 8 rounds at TPC Craig Ranch. Lee is No. 1 in Approach, Total and No. 2 in Putting while Spieth is 4, 2 and 21.

Byeong Hun An ranks No. 1 in this field in Birdies or Better Gained and No. 4 in this field in Opportunities Gained over his last 36 rounds. He’s also No. 3 in Driving Distance Gained and No. 12 in Greens in Regulation Gained. Hun An also ranks top-20 in Proximity to the hole from 175-200 yards and 200+ yards and top-5 inside 125 yards. Byeong Hun An finished T8 in the Arnold Palmer Invitational and T16 in The Masters against stronger field on courses where driving and approach were key stats.

CJ Cup Byron Nelson Golf Picks

Leading golf analysts and contributors picks to win and top finishing position include:

• Golf Digest - Alex Noren (2), Sungjae Im, Byeong Hun An, Adam Schenk, Thomas Detry, Keith Mitchell,
• SportingLife: Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim and longshots Sam Stevens, Davis Riley, Nate Lashley and C.T. Pan
• Golf Bet - Tom Kim, Stephen Jaeger, Si Woo Kim, Mark Hubbard
• FanDuel - Si Woo Kim, Alex Noren, Tom Hoge, Mackenzie Hughes

Tournament Matchups

Additional golf betting odds from FanDuel and leading online sportsbooks are updated and adjusted througout the tournament along with props and tournament matchups.

• Sungjae Im (-120) vs. Tom Kim (+100)
• Byeong Hun An (-115) vs. Min Woo Lee (-105) - Bet Byeong Hun An
• Tom Hoge (-120) vs. Keith Mitchell (+100)
• Davis Thompson (-120) vs. Beau Hossler (+100)

How To Watch The CJ Cup Byron Nelson

All times Eastern. Tournament May 2-5

• Thursday-Friday: 4-7 p.m. (Golf Channel/Peacock)
• Saturday-Sunday: 1-3 p.m. (Golf Channel/Peacock), 3-6 p.m. (CBS)

Thursday and Friday pairings and tee times .

Featured Groups

Thursday PGA Tour Live on ESPN+

• 8:23 am, hole #10: Tom Hoge, Brice Garnett, Daniel Berger
• 8:34 am, hole #10 : Tom Kim, Camilo Villegas, Mackenzie Hughes
• 8:45 am, hole #10 : Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Sungjae Im (Marquee)
• 8:23 am, hole #10 : Jake Knapp, Luke List, Adam Schenk
• 8:34 am, hole #10 : Stephan Jaeger, Nick Dunlap, Byeong Hun An
• 8:45 am, hole #10: Adam Scott, Si Woo Kim, K.H. Lee ‘(Marquee)

Featured holes Par 3’s at No. 4, 7 and 17 and Par 4 at No. 14

Check out more golf news , picks and information you can bet on for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson and weekly golf events. The PGA Tour and leading U.S. golf courses are leading the way in technology and sustainability . The top online sportsbooks are leading the way in wagering options as betting on golf continues to be most popular with fans firing for more fairways and greens.

You can bet on it.

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2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson odds, field: Surprising PGA picks, predictions from model that's nailed 11 majors

Sportsline's proven model simulated the cj cup byron nelson 2024 10,000 times and revealed its pga golf picks.

The 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson might be a new name on the PGA Tour schedule but the tournament has one of the richest histories in golf. It was first played in 1944 as the Texas Victory Open and it's been the namesake tournament for 52-time PGA Tour winner and five-time major champion Byron Nelson since 1968. Jason Day ended a five-year winless streak to capture his second win in the Byron Nelson and now he'll set his sights on a third this weekend at TPC Craig Ranch when play begins on Thursday. 

Day is listed at 18-1 in the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson odds while Jordan Spieth is the 12-1 favorite after finishing top 10 in his last two starts in this event. Other 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson contenders include Si Woo Kim (22-1), Adam Scott (25-1), Alex Noren (25-1) and Sungjae Im (25-1). Before making any 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson picks, be sure t o see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine .

SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, the model is up more than $9,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

McClure's model correctly predicted Scottie Scheffler would finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2024 Masters, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the Players Championship, and the RBC Heritage this season. McClure also included Hideki Matsuyama in his best bets to win the 2024 Genesis Invitational. That bet hit at +9000, and for the entire tournament, McClure's best bets returned nearly $1,000.

The model also predicted Jon Rahm would be victorious at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. At the 2023 Masters, the model was all over Rahm's second career major victory heading into the weekend. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the third round, but the model still projected him as the winner. It was the second straight Masters win for the model, which also nailed Scheffler winning in 2022.

In addition, McClure's best bets included Nick Taylor (70-1) winning the 2023 RBC Canadian Open, Jason Day (17-1) winning outright at the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson, and Rickie Fowler (14-1) finishing on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic.

This same model has also nailed a whopping 11 majors entering the weekend and hit the Masters three straight years. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.

Now that the CJ Cup Byron Nelson 2024 field is finalized, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard .

Top 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson predictions 

One major surprise the model is calling for at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson 2024: Day, the defending champion and one of the top favorites, stumbles and barely cracks the top five. Day got off to a hot start this season when he posted three top-10 finishes in his first five tournaments, but he has struggled since then. He has finished outside the top 15 in his last five events, including a missed cut at the Texas Children's Houston Open at the end of March. 

Day ranks 183rd on the PGA Tour in approach shots from more than 200 yards, which will be a shot that he has to take throughout this tournament. He is also ranked 133rd in green in regulation percentage (63.62%) and 152nd in strokes gained: approach to green (-0.380). Day is not in strong form right now, so the model is looking elsewhere with its pick to win this tournament. 

Another surprise: Stephan Jaeger, a 30-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The 34-year-old German is currently ranked No. 43 in the Official World Golf Ranking after scoring his first PGA Tour victory earlier this year at the Texas Children's Houston Open.

That victory earned him an appearance in the 2024 Masters (his first) and it was his third finish of T-3 or better already this season. Jaeger is coming off a T-18 at the RBC Heritage and he was T-11 in the Byron Nelson last year. He ranks 17th in the FedEx Cup standings entering the week and he's 15th on tour this season in total strokes gained (0.957).  See who else to pick here . 

How to make 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson picks

The model is also targeting three other golfers with odds of 28-1 or longer to make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model's picks here .

Who will win the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the CJ Cup Byron Nelson 2024 odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected CJ Cup Byron Nelson leaderboard , all from the model that's nailed 11 golf majors, including the last three Masters.

2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson odds, field

Get full 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson picks, best bets, and predictions here .

Jordan Spieth +1200 Jason Day +1800 Si Woo Kim +2200 Sungjae Im +2500 Alex Noren +2500 Adam Scott +2500 Tom Hoge +2800 Min Woo Lee +2800 Byeong Hun An +3000 Stephan Jaeger +3000 Keith Mitchell +3500 Tom Kim +4000 Thomas Detry +4500 Patrick Rodgers +5000 Maverick McNealy +5000 Mackenzie Hughes +5500 Adam Schenk +5500 Aaron Rai +6000 Beau Hossler +6000 K.H. Lee +6000 Davis Thompson +6500 Taylor Montgomery +6500 Seamus Power +7000 Mark Hubbard +7000 Luke List +7500 Doug Ghim +8000 Ryan Fox +8000 Kevin Yu +8000 Ben Griffin +8000 Jake Knapp +9000 Taylor Pendrith +9000 Daniel Berger +9000 Thorbjorn Olesen +9000 C.T. Pan +10000 Alejandro Tosti +10000 Matt Kuchar +10000 Sam Stevens +10000 Nate Lashley +10000 Peter Kuest +10000 Chan Kim +10000 Joseph Bramlett +10000 Michael Kim +11000 Greyson Sigg +11000 Andrew Novak +11000 Matti Schmid +11000 Justin Lower +11000 Max Greyserman +11000 Chesson Hadley +11000 Cameron Champ +11000 Charley Hoffman +11000 Garrick Higgo +11000

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2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson odds, picks, Fantasy golf power rankings: PGA Tour predictions, expert best bets

After the Rory McIlroy-Shane Lowry team won in a playoff at last week's Zurich Classic, the PGA Tour returns to its individual stroke play format for this week's CJ Cup Byron Nelson event in Texas. A full field of 156 golfers will compete for a $9.5 million purse for the third 2024 event in the Lone Star State. 

Jordan Spieth is the +1600 favorite, followed by defending champion Jason Day (+1800), Si Woo Kim (+2000), Will Zalatoris (+2200), Adam Scott and Alex Noren (+2500).

With a competitive field again this week, who can you trust for your CJ Cup Byron Nelson golf picks? Before you set your 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson golf lineups or make any PGA Tour bets, you NEED to see the Fantasy golf rankings from Fantasy expert Eric Cohen .

Cohen is an avid golf bettor who correctly predicted the pre-tournament outright winner of the 2024 Players Championship (Scottie Scheffler +550), 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic (Rickie Fowler +1400), 2023 PGA Championship (Brooks Koepka +2000), 2023 Honda Classic (Chris Kirk +3500), 2022 Open Championship (Cameron Smith +2200), 2022 U.S. Open (Matt Fitzpatrick +2500), and 2022 Phoenix Open (Scheffler's first career victory at +2800). 

Eric is a contributor to SportsLine's YouTube shows including "Early Edge" and is the host of "The Early Wedge" golf show (live on Tuesday, April 30 at 7 p.m. ET).  Anyone who has followed Cohen's predictions has made positive gains on their golf picks.

Now, Cohen has studied the field set to play at TPC Craig Ranch and revealed his CJ Cup Byron Nelson Fantasy golf rankings. 

We can tell you he is backing Alex Noren as his top choice this week despite having no PGA Tour victories on his resume. "The Swede has made the cut in 14 straight events, despite only finishing in the top 10 once since January. The ball-striking numbers have been good and the putter has mostly cooperated en route to a slew of top-20s of late. Between 2009-18, he won 10 events on the DP World Tour and might be the best player on the PGA Tour without a victory."

On the other hand, Cohen is fading Will Zalatoris at +2200. "Once again, the putter is plaguing Zalatoris, as he's lost strokes on the greens in four straight stroke play events. He's also not the type of player to thrive in birdie fest events."

Cohen also is backing several underdogs in his 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson Fantasy golf picks, including a triple-digit longshot who would be a nice piece for DFS lineups ! If this player can pull off a stunning result, it would bring a HUGE payoff and be a valuable piece for CJ Cup Byron Nelson Fantasy golf lineups. You ABSOLUTELY need to see who it is before locking in any fantasy golf picks.

Who wins the CJ Cup Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch ,  a nd which triple-digit longshots could bring a HUGE payout and be the difference for your Fantasy golf picks? Join SportsLine now to get Eric Cohen's Fantasy golf rankings and picks for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, all from the Fantasy expert who has delivered a positive ROI with his golf picks !

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