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‘Good old friend’: Putin offers praise for Xi ahead of first trip to Russia since Ukraine invasion

Russian president lauds Xi ahead of meeting, while Beijing calls for a ‘rational way’ out of the crisis

Vladimir Putin has praised “good old friend” Xi Jinping in a newspaper article published in China on the eve of a state visit by the Chinese president that will reaffirm the leaders’ strong ties and provide Moscow with an opportunity to emphasise that it has not been isolated by the global community.

The two leaders, who are believed to share a strong personal relationship, will meet one-on-one on Monday, followed by an informal lunch, Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said.

In an article written for a Chinese newspaper on Sunday, Putin welcomed China’s willingness to play what he characterised as a “constructive role” in solving the Ukraine “crisis”.

The Russian president called Xi his “good old friend” and said Russia had high hopes for his visit, the Chinese leader’s first to Russia since Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine last year.

In the article, Putin said: “We are grateful for the balanced line of [China] in connection with the events taking place in Ukraine, for understanding their background and true causes. We welcome China’s willingness to play a constructive role in resolving the crisis.”

Xi in turn published an article in Rossiiskaya Gazeta, a daily published by the Russian government, in which he called for “pragmatism” on Ukraine.

He said China’s proposal, a 12-point paper released last month and largely dismissed by the west, represents “as much as possible the unity of the world community’s views”.

Xi said his trip to Russia aimed to strengthen the friendship between the two countries, “an all-encompassing partnership and strategic interaction,” in a world threatened by “acts of hegemony, despotism and bullying”.

“There is no universal model of government and there is no world order where the decisive word belongs to a single country,” Xi wrote.

Analysts said the visit by Xi was important to Moscow. “China is by far the most important ally for Russia,” said Alexander Gabuev, an expert on Russia’s relations with China at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“That Xi, the leader of the second most powerful country in the world, is ready to visit Moscow during the war in Ukraine is hugely symbolic.”

The visit comes three days after Putin was made the subject of an arrest warrant by the international criminal court for overseeing the abduction of Ukrainian children, sending Russia another significant step on the path to becoming a pariah state, and two days after he made a surprise visit to the occupied city of Mariupol in an apparent show of defiance towards the court and the west in general.

Xi’s visit comes at a time of growing Russian dependence on Beijing, with Xi holding the upper hand over Putin one year into the war in Ukraine, experts said.

“There was already a large imbalance in power before the war. Now, with Russia’s isolation from the west, that power asymmetry is on steroids,” Gabuev said. “China has all of the leverage it wants, and it will only increase going forward,” he added.

Gabuev pointed to the growing economic dependence of Russia on Beijing, with China now accounting for more than 40% of Russia’s total imports, according to the state trade data.

Data shows that China has stepped in to supply Russia with large volumes of products for both civilian and military use, including raw materials and computer chips – vital resources for Moscow to keep its war machine afloat.

Chinese imports of Russian oil increased by 8% last year. Imports of Russian gas increased by 50% according to Gazprom, Russia’s top producer.

This shift partly explains why the Russian economy has fared better than many economists have predicted after the introduction of unprecedented western sanctions on the country.

But while Moscow has managed to redirect some of its trade flows towards China, the country’s budget recorded a deficit of almost $25bn in January after the west introduced a series of price caps and embargos on Russian energy exports, the lifeblood of Russia’s economy.

“For Russia, it will very important to discuss increased oil and gas sales and the continued flow of critical components,” Gabuev said.

When Xi lands in Moscow, he too will be well aware of the stakes of his visit. It will be widely interpreted as a show of support for Putin and the man Xi has described as his “best friend”.

But Xi will also want to demonstrate to the world that he can be a restraining force on Putin, for example by preventing him from deploying nuclear weapons on the battlefield in Ukraine.

Xi is also reported to be planning a call with Volodymyr Zelenskiy. That call would partly be an effort to “balance the negative impact that his visit to Moscow will have” on Xi’s relations with the west, said Bonnie Glaser, the director of the Indo-Pacific Program at the German Marshall Fund, a thinktank.

Xi is trying to play the role of global statesman. On Monday last week he called for China to play a bigger role in managing global affairs, after brokering a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran to restore diplomatic relations, a move which was seen in China as a win against US influence in the Middle East. Xi said China would bring “positive energy to world peace and development”.

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China has all but given up on its relationship with the US. But Xi is keen to maintain ties with Europe , an important trading partner.

One of the main domestic challenges Xi faces as he embarks on his third term as China’s president is how to rebuild the economy from the battering it endured during his zero-Covid policy.

But “Europe is increasingly tied to the United States, because of its views on Ukraine. This is hampering China’s efforts to improve ties with Europe,” notes Glaser.

China last month proposed a 12-point peace plan for dealing with the war, though it did not address critical details such as whether Russian troops should withdraw.

“The talks might produce a more concrete roadmap for peace out of the conflict,” said Andrey Kortunov, director general of the Russian International Affairs Council, a research organisation close to the Russian government.

“People will be watching for the result,” said Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center, a Washington thinktank.

“If Russia agrees to talk to Ukraine as the result of Xi’s trip, it will boost China’s credibility as a mediator.”

Xi’s peacemaking efforts may be dismissed as empty posturing. He has refused to condemn the invasion and, in tangible terms, China’s support for Russia since the start of the war has been unwavering.

And while Moscow has welcomed the Chinese peace proposal , it has shown no clear intention of climbing down from its maximalist goals of regime change in Ukraine.

In a string of public statements over the last month, Putin has indicated that he expected the war to continue, preparing his population for a years-long conflict that he has framed as an existential battle for the country’s survival.

But with Russia unable to force a breakthrough during its grinding winter offensive in eastern Ukraine and new reports emerging that its military is running low on ammunition, officials in Washington have expressed worry that Moscow will renew its calls for Chinese military assistance.

“The topic of military-technical cooperation will undoubtedly be discussed,” Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov told the Russian news outlet Vedomosti, adding that defence minister Sergei Shoigu will participate in the talks.

Last month, the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, said China was considering supplying weapons and ammunition to Russia, warning that such a move would have “serious consequences” for Beijing.

Observers, however, question whether China would go as far as supplying Moscow with lethal weapons on a large scale unless Russian forces were facing an immediate defeat on the battlefield.

Such a move would be uncharacteristically reckless of Beijing, which is not in a position to weather the economic backlash that such a move would provoke.

“Bejing is currently content with the current status quo, it is unclear for now if it is willing to go further and supply weapons,” said Gabuev.

“For Xi, it is important to prevent a major Russian defeat which … could jeopardise Putin’s position.”

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China's Xi Jinping flexes his diplomatic muscle with a visit to Moscow

John Ruwitch

Chinese President Xi Jinping, right, and Russian President Vladimir Putin shake hands during an awarding ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, on June 8, 2018. Xi is traveling to Moscow to show support for Putin. Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP hide caption

Chinese President Xi Jinping, right, and Russian President Vladimir Putin shake hands during an awarding ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, on June 8, 2018. Xi is traveling to Moscow to show support for Putin.

China's leader Xi Jinping lands in Moscow on Monday to show support for Russian leader Vladimir Putin and probe possible steps toward peace in Ukraine .

After the three-day visit to Russia, Xi is expected to have talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The conversation would be the first since the start of the war. Analysts say the likelihood of a big breakthrough on Ukraine is slim because Russian and Ukrainian negotiating positions remain so far apart.

For Xi, who this month locked up a rare third term as China's president , the Russia trip offers a chance to strengthen relations with a key neighbor and partner-of-convenience. At the same time, the trip could help burnish China's credentials as a global heavyweight.

"He can cast his visit to Moscow in the context of some grand international diplomacy, [yet] he doesn't actually have to achieve much to accomplish this goal," said Paul Haenle, a China expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a former director on the National Security Council under presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama.

On the eve of the Ukraine invasion a year ago, Russia and China declared a "no limits" friendship. And while many believe China's leadership was caught off guard by the full-scale invasion of Ukraine that followed, Beijing has refused to condemn the move, instead trumpeting the strength of Beijing-Moscow ties.

Xi says the relationship has grown "more mature and resilient"

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping pose for a photograph during their meeting in Beijing, on Feb. 4, 2022. Alexei Druzhinin/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images hide caption

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping pose for a photograph during their meeting in Beijing, on Feb. 4, 2022.

Ahead of his visit to Moscow, Xi wrote in the state-owned Russian Gazette newspaper that the two countries have "cemented political mutual trust and fostered a new model of major-country relations."

"The bilateral relationship has grown more mature and resilient," Xi declared. On the Ukraine crisis, Xi urged all parties to "embrace the vision of common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security, and pursue equal-footed, rational and results-oriented dialogue and consultation."

China's steadfast support of Moscow throughout the war has dented its image in western Europe, where Beijing is keen to forge deeper relations.

Rana Mitter, a professor of Chinese history and politics at the University of Oxford, says China may hope the Moscow trip will help persuade some in Europe "to take a more America-skeptic position on questions of security and economic cooperation."

"If the case is that [China] actually can talk to Putin and try and mediate some of the difficulties with Russia that those of you in Western Europe simply cannot," he said, "that's a proposition that at least some leaders in the region might listen to."

For its part, Beijing appears keen to foster the image of peacemaker.

Earlier this month, China helped finalize a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran on re-establishing diplomatic relations. The Chinese government in February published a 12-point "position paper" laying out broad principles for resolving the Ukraine conflict. And on Friday, Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said China would "play a constructive role in urging peace and promoting talks."

Rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran restore ties, with China's help. Here's why it matters

"The mood has been set. The framework has been set. The idea of China potentially as the peacemaker that goes where other countries can't has been set. But the actual solution still looks in some ways much, much more vague, much more fluid," said Mitter.

The Chinese are not really aiming to be "the real problem solver here," according to Yun Sun, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center in Washington, D.C.

She said, with Xi visiting Moscow, "they know that there will be these critical questions on China, about what China plans to do on the war in Ukraine. I think that political position [paper] and the framing of China as a peace broker is to serve that political purpose."

China's past mediations showed its limits

China's role as a mediator in the past suggests limits to what it may achieve when it comes to Ukraine.

"Even in the Iran-Saudi deal, China was not a peace broker. I think China exploited an opportunity that ripened," Sun said. "Those two countries actually wanted to improve their relations, but I don't think that condition exists between Russia and Ukraine — at least not now and at least not for the foreseeable future."

Xi Jinping's show: Who's who in China's new government

Haenle, of the Carnegie Endowment, says during the Six Party Talks on North Korea's nuclear program, in which he took part, Beijing excelled at bringing negotiators to the table. But he says Chinese officials rarely pressed any of the parties to move the ball down the field.

"We always had the sense that the United States, South Korea, Japan, we were really aggressively trying to find a way to solve the North Korean nuclear issue, where the Chinese were really looking for a process to manage the North Korean nuclear issue," he said.

"Whether they'll play an active role in ending the Ukraine conflict, I think, is probably something that we will not see here in the near term," Haenle said.

Instead, the focus of Xi's Moscow trip will be on strengthening China-Russia relations. And for Xi, that means it will most likely be a win, says Suisheng Zhao, a professor at the University of Denver.

China frames its foreign relations within the context of its superpower rivalry with the United States. Xi's trip to Russia is no exception.

"The benefits will definitely weigh over the costs," Zhao said. "His most fundamental foreign policy objective now is [to] try to defend China's interests against American confrontation."

Chinese leader Xi Jinping to visit Russia next week for talks with Putin

HONG KONG — Chinese President  Xi Jinping  will visit  Russia  early next week for talks with President Vladimir Putin , a trip that will showcase the countries’ growing closeness as tensions escalate with the United States and the war in Ukraine grinds into a second year.

Xi will pay a state visit to Moscow from Monday to Wednesday at Putin’s invitation, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said Friday. It is his first trip to Russia since the invasion , and comes as Beijing is trying to position itself as a mediator in the conflict despite skepticism from Washington and its allies.

The Kremlin also confirmed the visit, saying the talks would focus on the countries' “comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation." A number of “important bilateral documents” would also be signed, it said in a statement.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry did not confirm reports that Xi’s Russia trip would be followed by a virtual meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy , with whom the Chinese leader hasn’t spoken since before the war began last February.

“We are in communication with all parties,” spokesperson Wang Wenbin said at a regular briefing in response to a question about the reports. 

Xi's Moscow visit comes as U.S. ties with both China and Russia have been steadily deteriorating.

On Thursday, the U.S. military  released newly declassified video it says shows a Russian fighter jet harassing and colliding with an American drone over the Black Sea, aggression that American officials told NBC News was approved by the Kremlin leadership.

Tensions with China have soared over Taiwan, questions over the origins of Covid, a U.S. submarine deal with Australia and Britain, White House demands that TikTok’s Chinese owners sell their stakes in the popular app, and the downing of a Chinese surveillance balloon that was detected over America.

The diplomatic chill was reflected in comments last week by Xi, who accused the U.S. of leading a campaign of “containment, encirclement and suppression” against China that had created “severe challenges” for the country.

Beijing has been seeking to rival Washington as a mediator on the global stage, a diplomatic push that was given a high-profile boost when it brokered the agreement for archrivals Iran and Saudi Arabia to normalize ties last week.

China, which declared a “no limits” partnership with Russia weeks before the invasion, has tried to portray itself as neutral in the conflict. It has refrained from condemning Russia’s aggression or even calling it an invasion, while calling for negotiations and being careful to avoid violating international sanctions.

A 12-point peace proposal Beijing released last month received a tepid response in both Ukraine and Russia, while it was quickly dismissed by the West as too favorable to Moscow.

Wang said Xi’s visit to Russia was “for peace.”

“We have always believed that political dialogue is the only way out of the conflict,” he said.

The U.S. has also been warning that China may be considering sending artillery and ammunition to Russia for use in the conflict, which would represent a significant shift in its approach. Beijing denies the allegations, with Wang saying Friday that China had always taken a “prudent and responsible attitude” toward military exports.

“China’s position and approach have been consistent, in sharp contrast to the double standards of some countries on arms sales and the practice of adding fuel to the fire in the Ukraine crisis,” he said, referring to the U.S. and other countries providing weapons to Ukraine.

In a rare call Thursday with his Ukrainian counterpart, China’s new foreign minister, Qin Gang , said Beijing was concerned that the conflict could escalate out of control and that it hoped for a political solution.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, who also spoke with Secretary of State Antony Blinken earlier Thursday, said on Twitter that he and Qin had “discussed the significance of the principle of territorial integrity.” He said he also underscored the importance of Zelenskyy’s own peace plan.

Xi and Putin previously met in Uzbekistan last September on the sidelines of a regional summit. Putin invited Xi to make a state visit during a videoconference in December, and China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, laid further groundwork for the trip when he was in Moscow last month.

Though the war in Ukraine has tested China-Russia relations, they seem to be returning to their prewar status, and Xi’s trip “is probably going to cement that,” said Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, a consulting firm based in New York.

“They’re going to display a lot of friendship,” he said. “I think it will be very clear that Putin, from China’s perspective, is very far from a pariah.”

CORRECTION  (March 17, 2023, 8:30 a.m. ET): A previous version of this article misspelled the first name of the Ukrainian president. He is Volodymyr Zelenskyy, not Volodomyr.

Jennifer Jett is the Asia Digital Editor for NBC News, based in Hong Kong.

It's Debatable: What Does Xi’s Visit to Russia Mean for the World?

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What Does Xi’s Visit to Russia Mean for the World?

China’s embrace of russia seems politically risky but beijing is also benefiting economically and emerging as the dominant power..

• Emma Ashford
• Matthew Kroenig

It’s Debatable : The Stimson Center’s Emma Ashford and the Atlantic Council’s Matthew Kroenig debate pressing issues for policymakers.

Emma Ashford: Hey, Matt! It’s almost the best time of the year in Washington: spring! The weather is warming up, the cherry blossoms are flowering, there are tourists everywhere clogging up traffic, and my allergies are going haywire.

Matt Kroenig: Hi Emma! I am also looking forward to the warmer weather. And the cherry trees are not the only thing blossoming.

What do you make of the Xi-Putin lovefest in Moscow this week?

EA: Aside from the comically oversized flags , you mean?

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow has been pretty hotly anticipated, and it was a chance for Russian President Vladimir Putin—presumably still reeling from his indictment on war crimes by the International Criminal Court—to demonstrate to the world that he still has powerful friends in high places. But I don’t feel like there have been any surprises out of the summit so far, just more of the same: trade promises, talks about energy, and reiterating that the two countries share a strong partnership.

What about you?

MK: Well, the videos of dozens of bags of Kentucky Fried Chicken delivered to Xi’s hotel demonstrated the irresistible soft power of the United States—even to the world’s fiercest anti-American dictators! Little do they know it is all part of Washington’s secret plan for Col. Sanders to kill them quietly through their arteries.

EA: I will never understand the Asian obsession with KFC . At times it seems like there are more KFC restaurants per square mile in Beijing than there are Peking Duck joints.

MK: Apart from that, Putin’s motivation for the meeting is easy to explain. He is now an international pariah, but this was an opportunity for him to show that he is still accepted by the leader of the world’s second most powerful country—even if it is increasingly as a vassal state.

Xi’s motivation is more puzzling. His embrace of Putin and deepening of ties with Russia will further damage China’s image in Europe and the free world. In an interesting juxtaposition, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was in Kyiv at the same time. The paired visits were a poignant symbolic and substantive reminder of how Beijing and Tokyo’s current alignment choices are roughly the reverse of their World War II positions.

Some have speculated that Xi’s visit is part of a new strategy of writing off the United States and its democratic allies—which Xi sees as implacably opposed to China’s rise—and a move to deepen ties with Russia and become a leader of the developing world, all with the goal of creating a more multipolar distribution of power.

It adds up, I guess, but it seems to be a continuation of Xi’s poor decision-making. The move will only further undermine China’s economic performance and worldwide diplomatic standing. Moreover, Beijing is now stuck paying the bills for a stumbling Russia and will likely see a poor return on that investment.

It reminds me of the old joke that the only country that can contain China is China.

Russia is frantically seeking to look like it has friends, and China is taking economic advantage.

EA: I don’t know about that. You’re right that China increasingly appears to have written off the United States, which is not a surprise given that America has pivoted pretty sharply towards a policy of overt containment of China in the last five years or so. But I don’t think Beijing has written off Europe yet, and it certainly is trying to walk a fine line on the war in Ukraine, supporting Moscow economically but presenting a “peace plan” that would suggest to other countries it is looking for mediation opportunities.

And China got at least one big win out of the summit: The Russians announced that they’re increasing the use of the yuan as a reserve currency , and conducting more trade in it. Yuan now makes up a much higher proportion of Russian public and private reserves than before, with banks inside Russia facing penalties for holdings in dollars and euros. The Russians have even signaled they’d like to do more trade with Latin America and Asia in yuan, though that remains dependent on whether other states are willing to do so. But either way, this all highlights how far Russia’s economic prospects have fallen, and bolsters the relevance of China’s currency.

MK: Bolsters, yes, but from a low starting point. There are too many Chinese Communist Party (CCP) restrictions on the use of the yuan—such as closed capital accounts and a lack of currency convertibility—to make it a competitive reserve currency.

EA: For now, yes. But it’s a notable step that makes the yuan more important to another major global economy. It also brings the currency closer to the international oil trade, which has historically been the sole preserve of the dollar. It’s a baby step, but one that could yield bigger changes down the road. Not good changes!

MK: I am still skeptical. A successful reserve currency is based on trust, and most market actors won’t trust their wealth to a fickle dictator.

And you are right that Xi tried to present himself as a peacemaker, but it was clumsy. American and European leaders dismissed his peace proposal (that would essentially reward Putin for his aggression) out of hand. The contradictory plan calls for “respecting the sovereignty of all countries” and “territorial integrity,” but conveniently fails to mention Russia’s illegal occupation.

I also think all this focus on whether China will provide lethal aid is misplaced. China is already essentially providing lethal aid to Moscow. By providing Russia with an economic lifeline, it is enabling Russia to fund its war machine. Money is fungible. Beijing is also not using its power to stop North Korean weapons transfers . The CCP is basically already a co-belligerent on Putin’s side.

EA: China is also benefiting massively in purely economic terms from all this increased trade. And perhaps the most notable absent announcement from the summit was any news on pipelines for delivering gas from Russia to China. There was nothing on the proposed Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, for example. As Sergey Radchenko of Johns Hopkins’  School of Advanced International Studies noted on Twitter , that’s probably because the Chinese are holding out for a better price, and the Russians have thrown away their negotiating leverage by effectively ending their gas trade with Europe for the foreseeable future.

Or to put it another way: Chinese support for Russia also looks a lot like China has Russia over a barrel. There are more summits coming in the next year—Putin will go to Beijing, Xi will return to Moscow—but the outcome is likely to look the same. Russia is frantically seeking to look like it has friends, and China is taking economic advantage. I’m not too worried about Chinese support for Russia. If this is the best that Russia can muster in support of its war in Ukraine, then it isn’t much.

MK: I am sure we will be coming back to this story. The Xi-Putin relationship is not going away any time soon.

In other news, this week marked the 20th anniversary of the Iraq War. There is now an overwhelming consensus that it was a mistake—and given that we now know that Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein didn’t possess weapons of mass destruction, I agree with that. (For the record, I am not recanting. I was early in my graduate education when the war began and did not have a clear or informed opinion on the matter at the time.)

I do think the simple dismissal of the war as a big, dumb mistake, however, risks oversimplifying the lessons we learn from the episode. There were no good options for dealing with Iraq in March 2003. We do not know what the world would have looked like if Saddam had remained in power, but we know it would have been dangerous.

And I think among the biggest mistakes of the Iraq War was what happened after the invasion. There was never a clear strategy. A plan to schwack Saddam and get out quickly might have worked. A strategy to make Iraq the next Germany or Japan—send in a large force and stay forever—might have worked. But the half-in half-out, inconsistent approach after the invasion guaranteed failure.

Or was it just a big, dumb mistake?

EA: I don’t think “schwack” is a real word, Matt, though I appreciate you reminding us of George W. Bush and his propensity to invent new phrases .

And I can’t see how anyone could argue the Iraq War was anything other than a big, dumb mistake, although judging by the op-ed pages of America’s newspapers over the last week or two, there are a lot of folks out there still trying to retroactively justify their poor decisions about the war.

We don’t know what could have happened if other choices were made, it’s true. But scholars’ research shows that regime change only works in rare cases, under certain circumstances. And the factors that might allow regime change to produce democracy—things such as ethnic homogeneity or strong existing state institutions—were entirely lacking in Iraq. I have a hard time seeing any scenario in which the U.S. invasion of Iraq would have resulted in a more peaceful and well-governed Middle East.

And here’s the reality we do have: The invasion created a corrupt petrostate government in Iraq, empowered Iran, spread weapons all over the Middle East, and contributed to instability throughout the region.

It’s amazing to me the lengths that some will go to in order to avoid admitting that.

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MK: Well, even George W. Bush’s brother Jeb declared the war a mistake in the 2016 Republican presidential nominating contest. Those who have not come to that conclusion, however, are entitled to their opinion. This is geopolitics, not math. Different people weigh costs and benefits differently, and there were benefits to removing Saddam from power.

Speaking of GOP presidential elections, the 2024 campaign shows signs of heating up, with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis hitting former President Donald Trump for hush money payments to a porn star and Trump insinuating that DeSantis might be a pedophile.

EA: I think my favorite thing about electoral politics is how cerebral and dignified it is. Don’t forget! We’re also waiting to find out if the former president is going to be arrested and indicted.

MK: But there are more elevated debates going on in our area of expertise. What do you make of the brouhaha over DeSantis’s statement that the war in Ukraine is a “territorial dispute” and not in the “vital interests” of the United States?

Let’s not forget the politics. Think tank experts do not need to win elections. DeSantis does.

EA: This is a really interesting dispute, which says a lot about the state of turmoil in the Republican Party on foreign policy. DeSantis’s remarks were inelegant for sure, particularly the territorial dispute bit, which really misrepresents the nature of the war in Ukraine. But his remarks were pretty sound otherwise, and solidly in line with where polling suggests the Republican base is on questions of foreign policy: skeptical on how much aid to give to Ukraine going forward, concerned about China, and angry about the lack of burden-sharing by European allies. Electorally, he’s saying the right things.

Despite this, and despite the fact DeSantis is probably the most obvious competitor to Trump, Republican—or former Republican—foreign policy hands lined up to criticize him. Many of these are the same people who believe that Trump is a potential autocrat and major threat to the United States, and yet they’re attacking DeSantis because he’s insufficiently hawkish?

MK: Well, the leaders of the Republican Party in Congress, such as Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell, and other top Republican presidential candidates, such as former Vice President Mike Pence and former South Carolina Governor and U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, have been criticizing the Biden administration for being too weak in Ukraine. I agree with them.

There has also been a lot of hope that DeSantis can reunite the various factions and lead the party back to victory next year. So, I fully understand why the Reaganite wing of the party was disappointed by DeSantis’s remarks.

At the same time, let’s not forget the politics. Think tank experts do not need to win elections. DeSantis does. His biggest competitor for the nomination is not Haley or Pence but Trump. By taking positions near Trump, he takes away potential lines of attack and cuts into Trump’s support. Moreover, his statement was only a few lines long. It still leaves him a lot of wiggle room once he is elected. In fact, he already clarified his Ukraine position in a more hawkish direction.

This is electoral politics, not grand strategy. Let’s cut the guy some slack.

EA: Yeah, Pence and Haley are both polling in the single digits right now, and some of the focus-group commentary on Pence is downright mean . They’re not real contenders.

I’m just surprised we agree on this. But I suspect we won’t agree on the broader issue. This controversy is clearly emblematic of a foreign policy shift among Republicans voters, which has not been embraced by some GOP elites. It won’t be a good debate if both sides fall back on cries of “isolationism” or “warmonger,” and it certainly won’t be a good debate if neoconservatives undermine other viable candidates and land Trump back in power.

My friend Dan Caldwell of the Center for Renewing America has an essay on the future of Republican foreign policy out this week, and I honestly can’t put it better than he does: “A debate about Republican foreign policy could be healthy for the party …. But such a debate would be fruitless if conservative candidates used it as an excuse to pine for a return to caricatures of the foreign policies of former U.S. Presidents Ronald Reagan and Trump.”

MK: It is not 1980 or 2016. Neither Reagan’s vision nor Trump’s works for 2025. I think what the party needs is some kind of Trump-Reagan.

EA: Or—and here’s a novel idea—why don’t we construct a foreign policy that’s suited for the 21st century, instead of relying on the ideas of folks who should have left the political scene long ago?

Emma Ashford is a columnist at Foreign Policy and a senior fellow with the Reimagining U.S. Grand Strategy program at the Stimson Center, an adjunct assistant professor at Georgetown University, and the author of Oil, the State, and War. Twitter:  @EmmaMAshford

Matthew Kroenig is a columnist at Foreign Policy and vice president and senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security and a professor in the Department of Government and the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. His latest book, with Dan Negrea, is We Win, They Lose: Republican Foreign Policy and the New Cold War . Twitter:  @matthewkroenig

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Xi Bristles at Criticism of China Over the War in Ukraine

Talks in Paris with President Macron produced a call for an “Olympics truce” this summer but no concrete progress on Beijing putting pressure on Russia.

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By Roger Cohen

Reporting from Paris

President Xi Jinping of China, on a two-day visit to France, spoke out firmly against criticism of his country for its close relationship with Russia during the war in Ukraine, saying that “we oppose the crisis being used to cast responsibility on a third country, sully its image and incite a new cold war.”

Flanked by the French president, Emmanuel Macron, with whom he held several rounds of talk on Monday, Mr. Xi stiffened as he defended China’s role, recalling it was “not at the origin of this crisis, nor a party to it, nor a participant.”

The bristling remark appeared aimed principally at the United States, which believes that China, aside from buying enormous amounts of Russian oil and gas, continues to aid Moscow’s war in Ukraine by providing satellite imagery to Russian forces along with jet fighter parts, microchips and other dual-use equipment.

Mr. Macron and Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission’s president, who attended a morning session of talks, pressured Mr. Xi to use his influence on Moscow to bring the war to an end. Mr. Xi will host President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia in Beijing later this month, but there was no suggestion — other than a general wish for peace — that he would ask his “no limits” ally to stop the war.

The talks in Paris took place as Mr. Putin again suggested he might be prepared to use nuclear weapons in the war in Ukraine . Russia has specifically cited Mr. Macron’s taboo-breaking statement in February that the deployment of Western troops in Ukraine could not be ruled out as a reason for Moscow’s decision to hold military exercises to practice for the possible use of battlefield, or “tactical,” nuclear weapons.

Mr. Macron has said repeatedly that he stands by his position on the possible deployment of troops, remarks intended, he says, to create “strategic ambiguity.” He did not address the issue on Monday.

Addressing Mr. Xi, the French president said, “Without security for Ukraine there can be no security for Europe.” But he emphasized that France was not at war with Russia or its people and did not seek to overturn Mr. Putin’s regime. Mr. Macron added, with respect to the war, that France and China “must maintain a close dialogue”

Earlier in the day, Ms. von der Leyen said Beijing should “use all its influence on Russia to end its war of aggression against Ukraine.” Mr. Xi had played “an important role in de-escalating Russia’s irresponsible nuclear threats,” she added, expressing confidence that the Chinese leader would “continue to do so against the backdrop of ongoing nuclear threats by Russia.”

“More effort is needed to curtail delivery of dual-use goods to Russia that find their way to the battlefield,” said Ms. von der Leyen, who has been blunter in her criticism of China than Mr. Macron. “And given the existential nature of the threats stemming from this war for both Ukraine and Europe, this does affect E.U.-China relations.”

It is relatively unusual for a top European official to describe the war in Ukraine as an “existential threat” to the European continent. Doing so may reflect Mr. Putin’s renewed talk of the use of nuclear weapons.

The atmosphere between Mr. Xi and Mr. Macron was friendly and full of mutual congratulation at the fruits of the 60-year diplomatic relationship between the two countries and vows to build a better world together. At a separate French-Chinese business summit attended by top executives, Mr. Xi said, “Between our two countries there is no geopolitical tension nor any fundamental conflict.”

The two leaders called jointly for an “Olympics truce” — a pause in all fighting in all conflicts across the world for the duration of the Paris Olympics from July 26 to Aug. 11.

Mr. Macron noted the gastronomic passions shared by the two countries, and offered Mr. Xi a couple of bottles of Cognac.

China started an anti-dumping investigation this year targeting European brandy — French Cognacs for the most part — after the European Union began an investigation into fast-growing subsidized electric car imports from China. This could lead to the imposition of European tariffs this year. Mr. Macron, thanking Mr. Xi for his “openness” on the Cognac question, suggested that the threat of Chinese tariffs had been staved off for the time being.

Mr. Macron, who wants to build a sovereign “Europe power” beholden neither to the United States nor China and pursuing its own interests with the military and industrial strength to do so, was, however, less effusive about relations with China than during a visit to Beijing last year, when the two countries declared a “global strategic partnership.”

“There can be no long-term exchange without reciprocity,” Mr. Macron said at the business summit, adding that his goal was to “rebalance” trade between the two countries.

France has an almost $50 billion trade deficit with China; Europe’s deficit with China has tripled to close to $325 billion over the past five years. The level of French investments in China is three times as much as China’s investment in France.

“There is an opportunity for a balanced partnership between France and China,” Bruno Le Maire, the French finance minister, said at the meeting with business executives. “We are right now far from that balance.”

A number of agreements between French and Chinese companies were announced, including several related to battery production, transportation and green energy. Mr. Macron called on Chinese companies to increase investments in France in the areas of electric batteries and vehicles, solar panels and computing, so long as the investments were made “in full respect of our sovereignty.”

Ms. von der Leyen also took a firm line on trade. Tensions are high between the 27-nation European Union and China because heavily subsidized Chinese manufacturing and weak domestic demand have led to a big export push from Beijing.

“These subsidized products — such as electric vehicles or, for example, steel — are flooding the European market,” Ms. von der Leyen said. “At the same time, China continues to massively support its manufacturing sector, and this is combined with domestic demand that is not increasing.”

“The world,” she declared, “cannot absorb China’s surplus production.”

The war in Ukraine has put great pressure on European economies — as has the consequent need to shift energy supplies after most of the continent stopped buying from Russia. Inflation has risen, and the fear that China could put companies out of business has risen along with it.

“Europe cannot accept market-distorting practices that could lead to deindustrialization here at home,” Ms. von der Leyen said, adding that “Europe will not waver from making tough decisions needed to protect its economy and security.”

Aurelien Breeden and Liz Alderman contributed reporting.

Roger Cohen is the Paris Bureau chief for The Times, covering France and beyond. He has reported on wars in Lebanon, Bosnia and Ukraine, and between Israel and Gaza, in more than four decades as a journalist. At The Times, he has been a correspondent, foreign editor and columnist. More about Roger Cohen

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China’s Xi meets with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov in show of support against Western democracies

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Tuesday during a visit to Beijing in a sign of mutual support and shared opposition to Western democracies amid the conflict in Ukraine.

In this photo released by Xinhua News Agency, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, left, and Chinese President Xi Jinping meets at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Tuesday, April 9, 2024. Chinese leader Xi Jinping met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov Tuesday in a sign of mutual support and shared opposition to Western democracies amid Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. (Li Xueren/Xinhua via AP)

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In this photo released by Russian Foreign Ministry Press Service on Tuesday, April 9, 2024, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, left, and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi pose for a photo prior to their talks in Beijing, China. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is visiting Beijing to display the strength of ties with close diplomatic partner China amid Moscow’s grinding war against Ukraine. (Russian Foreign Ministry Press Service via AP)

In this photo released by Russian Foreign Ministry Press Service on Tuesday, April 9, 2024, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, 3rd left, attends a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, centre, in Beijing, China. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is visiting Beijing to display the strength of ties with close diplomatic partner China amid Moscow’s grinding war against Ukraine. (Russian Foreign Ministry Press Service via AP)

In this photo released by Russian Foreign Ministry Press Service on Tuesday, April 9, 2024, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, left, and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi shake hands prior to their talks in Beijing, China. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is visiting Beijing to display the strength of ties with close diplomatic partner China amid Moscow’s grinding war against Ukraine. (Russian Foreign Ministry Press Service via AP)

In this photo released by Russian Foreign Ministry Press Service on Tuesday, April 9, 2024, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, left, and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi attend a signing ceremony following their talks in Beijing, China. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is visiting Beijing to display the strength of ties with close diplomatic partner China amid Moscow’s grinding war against Ukraine. (Russian Foreign Ministry Press Service via AP)

In this photo released by Russian Foreign Ministry Press Service on Tuesday, April 9, 2024, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Chinese President Xi Jinping shake hands during their meeting in Beijing, China. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is visiting Beijing to display the strength of ties with close diplomatic partner China amid Moscow’s grinding war against Ukraine. (Russian Foreign Ministry Press Service via AP)

In this photo released by Russian Foreign Ministry Press Service on Tuesday, April 9, 2024, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, left, and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi shake hands after their joint news conference following the talks in Beijing, China. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is visiting Beijing to display the strength of ties with close diplomatic partner China amid Moscow’s grinding war against Ukraine. (Russian Foreign Ministry Press Service via AP)

In this photo released by Russian Foreign Ministry Press Service on Tuesday, April 9, 2024, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov speaks to the media during his and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s joint news conference following the talks in Beijing, China. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is visiting Beijing to display the strength of ties with close diplomatic partner China amid Moscow’s grinding war against Ukraine. (Russian Foreign Ministry Press Service via AP)

In this photo released by Russian Foreign Ministry Press Service on Tuesday, April 9, 2024, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, left, and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi attend a joint news conference following the talks in Beijing, China. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is visiting Beijing to display the strength of ties with close diplomatic partner China amid Moscow’s grinding war against Ukraine. (Russian Foreign Ministry Press Service via AP)

In this photo released by Russian Foreign Ministry Press Service on Tuesday, April 9, 2024, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, left, and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi greet each other during their meeting in Beijing, China. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is visiting Beijing to display the strength of ties with close diplomatic partner China amid Moscow’s grinding war against Ukraine. (Russian Foreign Ministry Press Service via AP)

In this photo released by Russian Foreign Ministry Press Service on Tuesday, April 9, 2024, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, second left, and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, second right, attend the talks in Beijing, China. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is visiting Beijing to display the strength of ties with close diplomatic partner China amid Moscow’s grinding war against Ukraine. (Russian Foreign Ministry Press Service via AP)

BEIJING (AP) — Chinese leader Xi Jinping met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov Tuesday in a sign of mutual support and shared opposition to Western democracies amid Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

“We would like to express our highest appreciation and admiration for the successes that you have achieved over the years and, above all, over the last decade under your leadership,” Lavrov told Xi, according to Russian media.

“We are sincerely pleased with these successes, since these are the successes of friends, although not everyone in the world shares this attitude and are trying in every possible way to restrain the development of China — in fact just like the development of Russia,” Lavrov said.

Russia’s growing economic and diplomatic isolation has made it increasingly reliant on China, its former rival for leadership of the Communist bloc during the Cold War. In past decades, the two have closely aligned their foreign policies, held joint military exercises and sought to rally non-aligned states in groupings such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

Lavrov held a news conference earlier Tuesday with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi at which they reaffirmed solidarity in international affairs.

Lavrov said Russia and China oppose any international events that do not take Russia’s position into account.

He said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s “so-called peace formula” was “completely detached from any realities.”

Zelensky has called for the withdrawal of Russian forces and the return of all occupied Ukrainian territory, but is heavily reliant on support from the U.S., where the Republican Party majority in the House of Representatives has been holding up a new military aid package.

China and Russia are each others most important diplomatic partners, both holding permanent seats on the United Nations security council and working together to block initiatives by the U.S. and its allies to spread democratic values and human rights from Venezuela to Syria.

While China has not provided direct military support for Russia, it has backed it diplomatically in blaming the West for provoking Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to launch the war and refrained from calling it an invasion in deference to the Kremlin. China has also said it isn’t providing Russia with arms or military assistance, although it has maintained robust economic connections with Moscow, alongside India and other countries, amid sanctions from Washington and its allies.

At their joint news conference Wang repeated China’s calls for a ceasefire and “an end to the war soon.”

“China supports the convening at an appropriate time of an international meeting that is recognized by both Russia and Ukraine, in which all parties can participate equally and discuss all peace solutions fairly,” Wang said.

China’s peace proposal has found little traction, in part due to the country’s continuing support for Russia and lack of vision for what a future resolution would look like, particularly the fate of occupied Ukrainian territories and their residents.

Wang also said Xi and Putin would continue to maintain close exchanges this year amid expectations of visits to each other’s capitals.

“China and Russia have gone through ups and downs, and both sides have drawn lessons from historical experience and found a correct path to promote the healthy and stable development of bilateral relations,” Wang said. “Today’s good relations between China and Russia are hard-won and deserve to be cherished and carefully maintained by both sides.”

Lavrov arrived in China on Monday, while Wang and other leading Chinese figures have recently visited Russia and maintained China’s line of largely backing Russia’s views on the cause of the conflict.

China has at times taken an equally combative tone against the U.S. and its allies. China and Russia have held joint military drills, and are seen as seeking to supplant democracies with dictatorships in areas where they wield influence. China is involved in its own territorial disputes, particularly over the self-governing island of Taiwan and in the South China and East China Seas.

Just weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine, Putin visited Beijing for the opening of the 2022 Winter Olympics and the sides signed a pact pledging a “no limits” relationship that has China supporting Russia’s line, even while formally urging peace talks.

In a phone call last week with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, U.S. President Joseph Biden pressed China over its defense relationship with Russia, which is seeking to rebuild its industrial base as it continues its invasion of Ukraine . And he called on Beijing to wield its influence over North Korea to rein in the isolated and erratic nuclear power.

China's Xi praises French ties as Macron prepares to talk trade

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Reporting by John Irish, Michel Rose, Ingrid Melander, Sybille de La Hamaide, Noemie Olive, Tim Hepher; Editing by Frances Kerry, Bernadette Baum and Alexander Smith

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