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World Tourism Barometer: January 2024

International Tourism to end 2023 close to 90% of Pre-pandemic levels

According to the first UNWTO World Tourism Barometer of the year,  international tourism ended 2023 at 88% of pre-pandemic levels , with an estimated 1.3 billion international arrivals .  The unleashing of remaining pent-up demand, increased air connectivity, and a stronger recovery of Asian markets and destinations, are expected to underpin a full recovery by the end of 2024 (UNWTO Tourism Barometer January 2024 – Press Release) .

An estimated 1286 million international tourists (overnight visitors) were recorded around the world in 2023, an increase of 34% over 2022. International tourism recovered 88% of pre-pandemic levels, supported by strong pent-up demand (UNWTO Tourism Barometer January 2024-Excerpt) .

International tourism is expected to fully recover pre-pandemic levels in 2024, with initial estimates pointing to 2% growth above 2019 levels. This central forecast by UNWTO remains subject to the pace of recovery in Asia and to the evolution of existing economic and geopolitical downside risks (UNWTO Tourism Barometer January 2024 – Press Release) .  

Asia and the Pacific reached 65% of pre-pandemic levels, with a gradual recovery since the start of 2023 following the reopening of several markets and destinations. However, performance among subregions were mixed, with South Asia recovering 87% of pre-pandemic levels and North-East Asia, 55% (UNWTO Tourism Barometer January 2024-Excerpt) .

There is still significant room for recovery across Asia. The recent reopening of several source markets and destinations is expected to boost recovery in the region and globally (UNWTO Tourism Barometer January 2024- Excerpt) .

Read more on the UNWTO Tourism Barometer (January 2024 excerpt) here .

About the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer

The UNWTO World Tourism Barometer is a publication of the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) that monitors short-term tourism trends regularly to provide global tourism stakeholders with up-to-date analysis of international tourism. The information is updated several times a year and includes an analysis of the latest data on tourism destinations (inbound tourism) and source markets (outbound tourism). The Barometer also includes three times a year Confidence Index based on the UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts survey, which provides an evaluation of recent performance and short-term prospects for international tourism.

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International travel levels tipped to soar again in 2022

A sense of optimism has returned to the tourism sector. Image:  Unsplash/Blake Guidry

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Stay up to date:, travel and tourism.

• Until the COVID-19 pandemic, the global tourism sector had seen almost uninterrupted growth for decades.
• Now there are signs the travel sector is bouncing back after 'the worst year in tourism history'.
• The UNWTO's latest World Tourism Barometer shows an increase of 182% for international tourism in the first three months of 2022 compared to the previous year.
• While optimism builds, the tourism industry is still vulnerable to new variants of COVID-19, the war in Ukraine and global economic conditions.

While few industries have been spared by the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic over the past two years, even fewer have been hit as hard as the tourism sector . After " the worst year in tourism history ", international tourist arrivals increased by just 5 percent in 2021, as travel restrictions remained in place for protracted periods in many parts of the world. International tourist arrivals once again fell more than one billion short of pre-pandemic levels, keeping the industry at levels last seen in the late 1980s.

Prior to the coronavirus outbreak, the global tourism sector had seen almost uninterrupted growth for decades. Since 1980, the number of international arrivals skyrocketed from 277 million to nearly 1.5 billion in 2019. As our chart shows, the two largest crises of the past decades, the SARS epidemic of 2003 and the global financial crisis of 2009, were minor bumps in the road compared to the Covid-19 pandemic.

A sense of optimism for the tourism industry

Almost six months into 2022, a sense of optimism has returned to the tourism sector, as travel demand finally shows signs of a significant uptick. According to the UNWTO's latest World Tourism Barometer , international tourism increased by 182 percent in the first three months of 2022 compared to the previous year. While that's still 60 percent below 2019 levels, the uptick in international arrivals gathered pace in March, pointing towards a strong second quarter leading into the summer holiday season.

As the following chart shows, the UNWTO now expects international tourist arrivals to reach 55 to 70 percent of 2019 levels this year, which is equivalent to a 90 to 140 percent improvement over 2021. While confidence is slowly building in the industry, there are some big ifs to consider. Not only could Covid make a comeback in the fall or whenever a more lethal variant emerges, but the war in Ukraine, inflation and global economic conditions could also stifle tourism's return.

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Economic Impact Research

• In 2023, the Travel & Tourism sector contributed 9.1% to the global GDP; an increase of 23.2% from 2022 and only 4.1% below the 2019 level.
• In 2023, there were 27 million new jobs, representing a 9.1% increase compared to 2022, and only 1.4% below the 2019 level.
• Domestic visitor spending rose by 18.1% in 2023, surpassing the 2019 level.
• International visitor spending registered a 33.1% jump in 2023 but remained 14.4% below the 2019 total.

Click here for links to the different economy/country and regional reports

Why conduct research?

From the outset, our Members realised that hard economic facts were needed to help governments and policymakers truly understand the potential of Travel & Tourism. Measuring the size and growth of Travel & Tourism and its contribution to society, therefore, plays a vital part in underpinning WTTC’s work.

What research does WTTC carry out?

Each year, WTTC and Oxford Economics produce reports covering the economic contribution of our sector in 185 countries, for 26 economic and geographic regions, and for more than 70 cities. We also benchmark Travel & Tourism against other economic sectors and analyse the impact of government policies affecting the sector such as jobs and visa facilitation.

Visit our Research Hub via the button below to find all our Economic Impact Reports, as well as other reports on Travel and Tourism. 

The outlook is sunny: the global travel forecast for 2024

As a new year begins, it is a good opportunity to reflect on international travel in 2023 and to also look ahead….

The global travel industry courageously navigated the pandemic’s severe ramifications and continues to demonstrate tremendous resilience post-Covid-19. It’s been nearly four years since the pandemic was declared in March 2020, swiftly followed by travel bans and restrictions and an inevitable reduced consumer appetite for travel. The long road to recovery continued throughout 2023.

According to some experts, the industry won’t fully recover until 2024 or later. Despite this, 2023 was a strong year for international travel. According to data from the UN World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), international arrivals reached 85 per cent of pre-pandemic levels in the second quarter of 2023, and 90 per cent in July. “International arrivals are higher than 2022 in all regions across the world and we expect this trend to continue in 2024, with many regions surpassing 2019 levels by the end of [the] year,” confirmed Virginia Messina, Senior Vice President, Advocacy and Communications at the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC).

Signs point to continued growth in 2024 and the opportunity for pre-pandemic focus areas to come back into the spotlight for the industry. A spokesperson for UK travel agents’ association ABTA told ITIJ: “It is likely that international travel will continue to grow in 2024, with passenger numbers achieving or surpassing pre-pandemic levels. In the UK, many travel companies are already reporting record numbers for 2023 and healthy interest in forward booking for 2024.”

The reparative power of technology For many, accelerating digital transformation became a priority during the pandemic, with innovations such as QR scanning, biometric facial recognition and thermal scanning technologies replacing manual processes. This focus continued in 2023 with, for many, technology playing a key role in recovery and being seen as paramount to enhancing global travel.

William Raillant-Clark, Communications Officer, Office of the Secretary General, International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), told ITIJ: “Much of the operational rethink and technological innovations resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic will change and improve the travel experience, for example in the area of facilitation, with the use and implementation of biometric identity technologies taking great steps forward.”

Looking ahead throughout 2024, it is anticipated that technology will continue to be a key driver for change and innovation in travel and tourism. “Digital transformation, artificial intelligence (AI), and data analytics will continue to reshape the sector,” stated Messina. “We expect the widespread adoption of virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) for immersive travel experiences, allowing travellers to explore destinations from the comfort of their homes before making decisions.”

International arrivals are higher than 2022 in all regions across the world and we expect this trend to continue in 2024, with many regions surpassing 2019 levels by the end of the year

ITIJ also spoke with Roi Ariel, General Manager, Global Sustainable Tourism Council (GSTC), who agreed that advancements in technology will be a catalyst for change: “Particularly in the simplification of processes through the utilisation of AI and data analytics. As technology continues to evolve, it will reshape how we plan, book and experience travel, and hopefully enhance the overall sustainability in the industry,” he said.  

A decarbonisation revolution Sustainability is another current and future focus for the international travel community, and is closely related to innovation, with important targets such as decarbonisation hinging on disruptive technologies, such as zero-emission aircraft and novel sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) technologies.

“Long-term sustainability is a vital element in any medium-term business plan, and aviation is no exception,” highlighted Raillant- Clark. “Moreover, governments have agreed to work towards the total decarbonisation of flying by 2050. The global air transport sector welcomes these developments as they provide certainty and vision. Sustainability is not seen as a threat but as an opportunity for new and highly dynamic development, and the technological and operational rethink that decarbonisation requires also presents an opportunity to deeply revolutionise operations as we know them today.”

Digital transformation, artificial intelligence (AI), and data analytics will continue to reshape the sector

Ariel underlined that sustainability will play a pivotal role in the recovery of international tourism and is a shared and crucial factor that is rising higher and higher on stakeholders’ agendas. “Travellers and stakeholders increasingly prioritise sustainable and responsible tourism practices. Embracing sustainability is not just a trend; it’s becoming a fundamental factor that will shape the future of the travel industry,” he said.

Consumers are demanding sustainable travel products, with 81 per cent of respondents to a Booking.com survey saying that sustainable travel is important to them, while, according to Simon-Kucher’s Global Travel Trends Study 2023 report, almost one in three consumers are willing to pay more for sustainable options. This consumer commitment, in tandem with the global race to decarbonise the travel and tourism sector and achieve net zero by 2050, means that initiatives to boost sustainability are more important than ever.

“Businesses are expected to intensify sustainability initiatives and look for ways to further reduce carbon footprints,” stated Catherine Logan, Regional Senior Vice President – EMEA and APAC, Global Business Travel Association (GBTA). “Business travel is an obvious focus area. Protecting the planet is one of the biggest challenges the global business travel sector faces, like so many other industries around the world. Reducing carbon emissions must be part of our collective mission. In our latest poll, 37 per cent of respondents put sustainability as a top strategic priority and 45 per cent of respondents plan to invest in sustainability initiatives in the year ahead.”

Sustainable tourism is not just a catchphrase In addition to embracing eco-friendly practices and harnessing innovation for sustainability, the importance of environmental conservation and responsible tourism can’t be overstated. “Sustainability must be viewed holistically, not just our impact on the environment but ensuring that local people benefit from tourism and that those employed in the industry are paid a decent wage,” an ABTA spokesperson highlighted. Interest among consumers in sustainable accommodation is increasing, with travellers recognising the importance of selecting a responsible hotel brand or opting to stay in sustainable accommodation in order to help reduce their environmental impact.

“The Singapore Tourism Board announced the launch of the Hotel Sustainability Roadmap,” said Ariel. “By 2025 its goal is for 60 per cent of hotel room stock to achieve hotel sustainability certification through a GSTC-accredited certification body.

Embracing sustainability is not just a trend; it’s becoming a fundamental factor that will shape the future of the travel industry

“We are witnessing a significant shift towards a better understanding, adoption and demand for sustainable tourism practices. Sustainable tourism has already become a mainstream term, and now it’s time to apply this term in a proper manner and not just as a catchphrase.”

The benefits of these practices will extend far and wide, said Messina: “As travellers become increasingly conscious of their impact on the environment and local communities, the sector’s commitment to sustainability will not only benefit the planet but also provide authentic and meaningful travel experiences and ensure these have a positive impact.”

Recovery isn’t linear Considering possible roadblocks for 2024 and beyond, Ariel said that the biggest challenge for the future of international travel will be achieving a sustainable balance between tourism growth and conservation, while also addressing issues related to overtourism and eliminating any negative environmental, cultural or social impacts from tourism activities. “While the trajectory is positive, continuous effort, innovation and commitment from the travel and tourism industry as a whole are essential to ensure that tourism benefits both the planet and its inhabitants for generations to come,” he stated.

Raillant-Clark said that a big challenge will be addressing the decarbonisation of air transport. “This will call for cooperation within and beyond the aviation sector at unprecedented levels,” he said. “This will require states to recommit to multilateralism at a time when many signposts appear to be very unfortunately pointing in the opposite direction.”

Messina agreed: “According to our data, 40 per cent of our sector’s greenhouse gas (GHG) footprint comes from transport. If we are to reach our net zero targets as a sector, it is therefore critical that we decarbonise transport but, of course, transport is considered a hard-to-abate sector due to its dependence on fossil fuels. In the case of aviation, the solution most widely being touted is SAF, but this will require governments around the world to rapidly pick up the pace in incentivising SAF production and to set ambitious targets to produce adequate quantities.”

Ariel has seen multi-stakeholder collaboration leading to meaningful change: “We see that tourism stakeholders, including governments, local communities and industry leaders, are collaborating to create policies and infrastructure that support sustainability.” It is only with this collective effort and passion that meaningful change can be achieved.

Tourism stakeholders, including governments, local communities, and industry leaders, are collaborating to create policies and infrastructure that support sustainability

It was perhaps inevitable that the travel industry would recover from the unprecedented strain placed upon it by the pandemic but healing isn’t linear and we can likely expect more bumps in the road in 2024. “The fact that travel patterns have resumed in tandem with the lifting of restrictions is proof of the continued social and universal importance of travel generally, with air transport being no exception,” said Raillant-Clark.

As the shadow cast by the pandemic continues to lift, pre-pandemic priorities can come back into focus, with socially, economically and environmentally responsible models of tourism representing a shared interest and technological transformation reshaping the sector. The global travel industry has experienced a real resurgence in 2023 and it will be interesting to see what 2024 brings.

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Travel forecast.

FORECAST January 17, 2024

Driven by Tourism Economics' travel forecasting model, the latest U.S. Travel Forecast projects the following:

International travel to the U.S. is growing quickly but is still far from a full pre-pandemic recovery. 

An expected global macroeconomic slowdown, a strong dollar, and lengthy visa wait times could inhibit future growth, with volume reaching 98% of 2019 levels in 2024 (up from 84% recovered in 2023) and achieving a full recovery in 2025. Spending levels, when adjusted for inflation, are not expected to recover until 2026. 

Other countries with whom the U.S. directly competes have recovered their pre-pandemic visitation rates more quickly, and some countries—such as France and Spain—have even increased their share of the global travel market. Meanwhile, U.S. global market share is declining.

Business travel is still expected to grow in 2024, albeit at a slower rate. 

Volume in the sector is expected to end the year at 95% of 2019 levels—up from 89% recovered in 2023. Slowing economic growth will hinder domestic business travel’s recovery, with a full comeback in volume not expected until 2026. Domestic business travel spending is not expected to recover to pre-pandemic levels within the range of the forecast.

Domestic leisure growth decelerated through three quarters of 2023 as consumer spending slowed amid higher borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions and the restart of student loan repayments. 

The sector achieved a full recovery to pre-pandemic levels in 2022. 

To complement the travel forecast table, U.S. Travel has released an accompanying slide deck , which provides context for the latest projections. This document, which appears on the right under "downloads," is available exclusively to U.S. Travel members.

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Tourism Set to Return to Pre-Pandemic Levels in Some Regions in 2023

• All Regions
• 17 Jan 2023

After stronger than expected recovery in 2022, this year could see international tourist arrivals return to pre-pandemic levels in Europe and the Middle East. Tourists are nonetheless expected to increasingly seek value for money and travel closer to home in response to the challenging economic climate.

Based on UNWTO's forward-looking scenarios for 2023, international tourist arrivals could reach 80% to 95% of pre-pandemic levels this year, depending on the extent of the economic slowdown, the ongoing recovery of travel in Asia and the Pacific and the evolution of the Russian offensive in Ukraine, among other factors.

All regions bouncing back

UNWTO anticipates a strong year for the sector even in the face of diverse challenges including the economic situation and continued geopolitical uncertainty

According to new data UNWTO, more than 900 million tourists travelled internationally in 2022 – double the number recorded in 2021 though still 63% of pre-pandemic levels. Every global region recorded notable increases in international tourist numbers. The Middle East enjoyed the strongest relative increase as arrivals climbed to 83% of pre-pandemic numbers. Europe reached nearly 80% of pre-pandemic levels as it welcomed 585 million arrivals in 2022. Africa and the Americas both recovered about 65% of their pre-pandemic visitors, while Asia and the Pacific reached only 23%, due to stronger pandemic-related restrictions which have started to be removed only in recent months. The first UNWTO World Tourism Barometer of 2023 also analyses performance by region and looks at top performers in 2022 , including several destinations which have already recovered 2019 levels.

International Tourist Arrivals, World and Regions

UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili said: "A new year brings more reason for optimism for global tourism. UNWTO anticipates a strong year for the sector even in the face of diverse challenges including the economic situation and continued geopolitical uncertainty. Economic factors may influence how people travel in 2023 and UNWTO expects demand for domestic and regional travel to remain strong and help drive the sector's wider recovery."

Chinese tourists set to return

UNWTO foresees the recovery to continue throughout 2023 even as the sector faces up to economic, health and geopolitical challenges . The recent lifting of COVID-19 related travel restrictions in China , the world's largest outbound market in 2019, is a significant step for the recovery of the tourism sector in Asia and the Pacific and worldwide. In the short term, the resumption of travel from China is likely to benefit Asian destinations in particular. However, this will be shaped by the availability and cost of air travel, visa regulations and COVID-19 related restrictions in the destinations.  By mid-January a total of 32 countries had imposed specific travel restrictions related to travel from China, mostly in Asia and Europe.

At the same time, strong demand from the United States , backed by a strong US dollar, will continue to benefit destinations in the region and beyond. Europe will continue to enjoy strong travel flows from the US, partly due to a weaker euro versus the US dollar. 

Notable increases in international tourism receipts have been recorded across most destinations, in several cases higher than their growth in arrivals. This has been supported by the increase in average spending per trip due to longer periods of stay, the willingness by travelers to spend more in their destination and higher travel costs due to inflation. However, economic situation could translate into tourists adopting a more cautious attitude in 2023, with reduced spending, shorter trips and travel closer to home.  

Furthermore, continued uncertainty caused by the Russian aggression against Ukraine and other mounting geopolitical tensions, as well as health challenges related to COVID-19 also represent downside risks and could weigh on tourism's recovery in the months ahead.

The latest UNWTO Confidence Index shows cautious optimism for January-April, higher than the same period in 2022. This optimism is backed by the opening up in Asia and strong spending numbers in 2022 from both traditional and emerging tourism source markets, with France, Germany and Italy as well as Qatar, India and Saudi Arabia all posting strong results.

Related links

• Download the News Release in PDF
• UNWTO World Tourism Barometer | Volume 21 • Issue 1 • January 2023 | EXCERPT
• World Tourism Barometer (PPT version)
• UNWTO Tourism Recovery Tracker

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Hilton lifts profit forecast on international travel demand

(Reuters) -Hotel operator Hilton Worldwide raised its annual adjusted profit forecast on Wednesday, banking on international travel demand to offset normalizing domestic travel in the U.S.

International travel demand is expected to remain strong this year as global air connectivity increases and travelers flock to Asian and Latin American countries, while demand for domestic travel plateaus in North America.

The company forecast 2024 adjusted profit of between $6.89 and $7.03 per share, up from the previously forecast $6.80 to $6.94 per share.

Hilton, which also owns brands such as Waldorf Astoria Hotels & Resorts, reported quarterly revenue per available room (RevPAR) of $104.16, up 2% from the same period last year.

"US RevPAR turned negative but Americas and Middle East & Africa accelerated ... implying global travel demand still robust," Richard Clarke, analyst at Bernstein, wrote in a note.

Hilton's shares were up 2.5% in light premarket trade.

The hotel operator reported an adjusted profit of $1.53 per share for the first quarter, compared to analysts' average estimate of $1.42 per share, according to LSEG data.

Total quarterly revenue was $2.57 billion. Analysts were expecting revenue of $2.53 billion.

(Reporting by Aishwarya Jain in Bengaluru and Doyinsola Oladipo in New York; Editing by Milla Nissi)

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Hilton lifts 2024 profit forecast on international travel demand

HOTEL operator Hilton Worldwide raised its annual adjusted profit forecast on Wednesday (Apr 24), banking on international travel demand to offset normalizing domestic travel in the US

The company forecast 2024 adjusted profit of between US$6.89 and US$7.03 per share, up from the previously forecast US$6.80 to US$6.94 per share.

International travel demand is expected to remain strong this year as global air connectivity increases and travelers flock to Asian and Latin American countries, while demand for domestic travel plateaus in North America.

Hilton, which also owns brands such as Waldorf Astoria Hotels & Resorts, reported quarterly revenue per available room (RevPAR) of US$104.16, up 2 per cent from the same period last year. REUTERS

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• Hilton is in talks to buy campus-focused Graduate Hotels brand
• CDL in talks to buy Hilton Paris Opera hotel from Blackstone at reported price of 244 million euros

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