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Carnival Is Attracting a Shocking Number of New Customers, Can It Last?

April 07, 2024 — 05:20 am EDT

Written by Reuben Gregg Brewer for The Motley Fool  ->

In 2023 Carnival (NYSE: CCL) had 3.5 million first-time cruisers aboard its fleet of ships. To put that in a better context, it attracted 51% more new-to-cruising guests in the fourth quarter of 2023 than it did in the fourth quarter of 2022. Is this a sustainable growth driver?

Carnival believes it offers great value

Carnival has been benefiting from a resurgence in demand for cruises following the effective industry shutdown during the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that demand isn't just coming from existing cruisers -- there's a whole new contingent of people who are experiencing cruising for the very first time. As noted above, 3.5 million new-to-cruise guests came aboard a Carnival ship in 2023.

Image source: Getty Images.

That has helped the company increase occupancy levels, ending 2023 at 98% of the pre-COVID average. At the same time, Carnival has been adjusting its business to push customers toward more on-board spending. More customers and more onboard spending is a double win. According to the company, 2023 unit-adjusted EBITDA ( earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization ) exceeded 2019 levels.

The caveat with the unit-adjusted EBITDA metric, which is a company-provided figure, is that it holds fuel prices constant to 2019 levels. That isn't what has happened in real-time -- fuel price inflation has been a big headwind for Carnival and other cruise lines. Still, the key takeaway is that the company is executing well of late, and new-to-cruising customers are a key driving force. Management summed up what's going on during Carnival's fourth-quarter 2023 earnings conference call :

In 2023, we captured over 3.5 million new-to-cruise guests and remain well-positioned to continue to take share from land-based alternatives. In other words, we are gaining momentum in our ability to close the unwarranted value gap to land-based alternatives. And to aid in that effort, we can further champion the fact that while many land-based alternatives have pulled back on service levels, we still deliver incredible service to our guests, thanks to our amazing crew. This pairs exceedingly well with the expansive amount of guest-pleasing amenities offered on board our newer fleet.

Simply put, with the price of a trip to someplace like Walt Disney 's hugely popular Disney World on the rise, choosing a cruise is an increasingly compelling option. To put a number on that, a one-day ticket to Disney World runs around $150 per person. So a family of four would cost $600 just to walk into the park. Hotel rooms and meals would be extra.

To be fair, Disney offers discounts for buying multi-day passes, but with rates like that, you can see why consumers are increasingly looking to cruises. An entire cruise could cost $600 (or less) per person, and includes the cruise, food, and a room. Cruise ships are also including more and more amenities, like amusement-style rides, water parks, and sports facilities, to better compete for traveler's dollars.

Carnival's good news can only go so far

This is a very good story for Carnival, and for the cruise industry more broadly. And it is important to note that cruises are usually booked well in advance. Carnival, for example, locked in a record $6.4 billion in customer deposits in the final quarter of 2023, up 31% since the fourth quarter of 2019. It is likely that many of the customers who have made deposits will be new-to-cruise customers. And while customers can cancel, most of the deposits the cruise line has collected will likely turn into full payment. Carnival appears well-positioned as it enters 2024.

But here's the problem: Rapid growth in new-to-cruise customer demand can only go on for so long. First off, cruising, regardless of the value it offers, is not a necessity. If the economy should weaken, demand will fall, including among new-to-cruise guests. This is a cyclical industry , and investors have to go in understanding that an industry pullback will happen at some point. When that happens, industry growth won't be the focus anymore.

Second, numbers just don't go up forever. There are only so many potential customers, and only so many rooms on Carnival's cruise ships to accommodate them. At some point, 50% new-to-cruise customers growth just isn't sustainable. In fact, if the new-to-cruise guest count leveled off at fourth-quarter 2023's high rate for all of 2024, 2024 fourth-quarter growth in new-to-cruise guests would be zero on a percentage basis. Meanwhile, if there were a decline in the number, the growth rate in new-to-cruise customers would be negative, even though it would still be at a high rate. You simply can't grow something at 50% a year for very long.

Great information, but don't get too excited

It is wonderful that Carnival is attracting customers who have never been on a cruise before. It improves the outlook for future performance since those customers can become repeat cruisers. But investors need to take this company's talking point with a grain of salt. The numbers are impressive today, but they probably won't remain this impressive for very long. It is just too hard a growth rate to sustain given the economic sensitivity of the industry, the inherent constraints of ships and, well, the way basic math works.

You should probably be prepared for this good news to turn sour. That doesn't mean Carnival will suddenly be a bad company, just that this good news story will have run its course.

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Reuben Gregg Brewer has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Walt Disney. The Motley Fool recommends Carnival Corp. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy .

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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Environmental compliance manager, job description.

Is responsible for implementing strategies to ensure that assigned Ships are supported with the goal to be following all environmental regulations and policies.      

Essential Functions:

• Support assigned ships on topics related to Environmental regulations and policies by answering/clarifying questions in a timely manner.
• Conduct Environmental Investigations as needed.
• Conduct regular ship visits to verify that assigned Ships are up to date and in compliance with all International and local Environmental Regulations including but not limited to IMO, MARPOL, EPA- VGP, CARB and Company policies. 
• Identify lessons learned and common findings from incidents and disseminating fleet wide. Identify best practices and propose application fleet-wide.
• Follow up on corrective and preventive actions associated to Environmental audit findings and investigations. As needed conduct follow up visits to verify that actions are in place and effective.   
• Follow up on shipboard reports like Environmental Sea event Reports, Status of Environmental critical spare parts reports, VGP reports. 
• Participate in the Environmental polices/ procedure Review process by providing feedback and suggestion for improvement.
• Provide support to Ships during Environmental related government authorities visits/ inspections/ audits.
• For new itineraries assess the Ships preparedness to verify that Ships Environmental Schedule is accurately completed, and waste offloading plan is adequate.
• Any additional projects/tasks as assigned by Sr Mgr., Environmental Compliance

Qualifications:

• Bachelor of Science in a related field or Maritime Engineering / License
• Minimum 5 years’ experience in Environmental Management. Shipboard experience preferred.
• In depth knowledge of cruise ship environmental management concepts and operations. Working knowledge of Microsoft Office.
• Cruise ship Environmental Officer with at least 5 years of shipboard experience preferred.

Knowledge, Skills and Abilities:

• Extensive Knowledge of International and United States Environmental Regulations. Organizational skills to coordinate multiple ship activities simultaneously. Interpersonal skills to work effectively in a team-based environment. Good leadership and effective management skills. Excellent communication and follow-up skills for frequent interactions with shipboard and shore side teams.

Physical Demands : Must be able to remain in a stationary position at a desk and/or computer for extended periods of time. Requires regular movement throughout CCL facilities.

Travel : More than 50% with shipboard travel likely.

Work Conditions : Work primarily in a climate-controlled environment with minimal safety/health hazard potential. Work may require employee to work inside and outside with exposure to changing climate and/or operate machinery.

The range for this role’s base salary is $75,900 - $122,700.  Offers to selected candidates will be made on a fair and equitable basis, taking into account specific job-related skills and experience.  

At Carnival, your total rewards package is much more than your base salary. All non-sales roles participate in an annual cash bonus program, while sales roles have an incentive plan. Director and above roles may also be eligible to participate in Carnival’s discretionary equity incentive plan. Plus, Carnival provides comprehensive and innovative benefits to meet your needs, including:

• Cost-effective medical, dental and vision plans
• Employee Assistance Program and other mental health resources
• Additional programs include company paid term life insurance and disability coverage 
• 401(k) plan that includes a company match
• Employee Stock Purchase plan
• Holidays – All full-time and part-time with benefits employees receive days off for 7 company-wide holidays, plus an additional floating holiday to be taken at the employee’s discretion. 
• Vacation Time – All full-time employees at the manager and below level start with 14 days/year; director and above level start with 19 days/year.  Part-time with benefits employees receive time off based on the number of hours they work, with a minimum of 84 hours/year.  All employees gain additional vacation time with further tenure.
• Sick Time – All full-time employees receive 80 hours of sick time each year.  Part-time with benefits employees receive time off based on the number of hours they work, with a minimum of 60 hours each year.  
• Complementary stand-by cruises, employee discounts on confirmed cruises, plus special rates for family and friends
• Personal and professional learning and development resources including tuition reimbursement 
• On-site preschool program and wellness center at our Miami campus

In addition to other duties/functions, this position requires full commitment and support for promoting ethical and compliant culture. More specifically, this position requires integrity, honesty, and respectful treatment of others, as well as a willingness to speak up when they see misconduct or have concerns.

Carnival Cruise Line is the most popular cruise brand in North America and operates a fleet of ships designed to foster exceptionally safe, fun and memorable vacation experiences at an outstanding value. Our employees have a responsibility to be accountable for all actions. We consider the environment in all aspects of our business and have a responsibility to put safety and sustainability first. We live and share a positive attitude which is based on fostering an environment of inclusion, trust, a willingness to listen, openness and integrity. Doing this helps us to achieve our ultimate goal, which is to include FUN in everything we do! Speaking of fun, we are officially certified as a Great Place to Work aboard our ships as well as in our global corporate headquarters!

Carnival Corporation & plc and Carnival Cruise Line is an equal employment opportunity/affirmative action employer. In this regard, it does not discriminate against any qualified individual on the basis of sex, race, color, national origin, religion, sexual orientation, age, marital status, mental, physical orsensory disability, or any other classification protected by applicable local, state, federal, and/or international law. 

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