hurricane lee air travel impact

Why are flights canceled today? Here's what to know if you're flying from Phoenix

Severe weather conditions with the threat of flooding are disrupting air travel in the Northeast.

While Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport hasn't had a large number of delays and cancellations in recent days, flights to and from the Northeast are among those affected, according to the flight tracking website FlightAware .

American Airlines, Southwest Airlines and United Airlines all offered travel waivers for passengers who have flights booked during the hazardous weather associated with Hurricane Lee . Flyers should check their airline's policy for details, as the terms for each one is different.

Here's what to know if you're flying to the Northeast.

New restaurants at Sky Harbor: Everything that just opened in Terminal 4

Why are flights canceled today?

Severe weather in the northeast U.S. affected flights in the New York City, Boston, Philadelphia and Washington, D.C., regions in recent days.

Here's how it affected flights in Phoenix, according to FlightAware data:

Sept. 8: Two arriving flights from and one departing flight to Newark, New Jersey, were canceled. Five Phoenix-Newark flights experienced delays.

Sept. 9: All but three of Sky Harbor's 18 canceled flights were arriving from or departing to the Northeast. The region was responsible for all six of Sky Harbor's canceled arriving flights, plus nine out of Sky Harbor's 12 canceled departures. Flights to and from Newark led the cancelations with six, followed by Philadelphia with five. Most Northeast cities also experienced several delayed arrivals and departures.

Sept. 10: Sky Harbor had four canceled flights associated with the Northeast weather: an arrival from and departure to Baltimore, one Phoenix-Philadelphia flight and one Phoenix-Newark flight.

Sept. 11: As of 11 a.m., no flights between Phoenix and the Northeast were canceled, though Boston, Baltimore and Newark each had one delayed departure from Sky Harbor.

What can travelers do if their flight is canceled or delayed?

Check with your airline to see if you can reschedule your trip.

American , Southwest and United issued travel alerts for the Northeast that allow passengers to rebook without additional charges if they had travel scheduled during a certain time and can travel within the coming days in their original class of service and the original city pairs.

Know your options: Flight canceled or delayed? Here's how to rebook or get a refund

Reach the reporter at  [email protected] . Follow him on X, formerly Twitter:  @salerno_phx .

Support local journalism.  Subscribe to  azcentral.com  today.

Hurricane Lee restrengthens to Category 3. Here’s what’s next.

The storm rapidly intensified, then rapidly weakened, and is strengthening yet again

Hurricane Lee has taken meteorologists for a wild ride. On Thursday, it was barely a hurricane. By Friday, it had blown up into a Category 5, becoming the third-most rapidly intensifying storm ever observed in the Atlantic Ocean. Then it weakened equally quickly. Now, it’s strengthening yet again and has regained major hurricane status as a Category 3. Its peak winds leaped Sunday from 105 to 120 mph, and it is forecast to intensify back to a Category 4 on Monday.

While the forecast for where Lee might end up is uncertain, the risk of a direct hit to the Canadian Maritimes around next weekend is increasing. There’s a slight risk that the northeastern United States could face a close shave as Lee whirls nearby or just offshore.

It’s barely a week until the historic peak of hurricane season in the Atlantic, which falls in mid-September. By October, fewer storms form over the open Atlantic as stronger upper-level winds become more hostile to storm development. Instead, the threat shifts to “homegrown” tropical systems — those that form in the Gulf of Mexico or in the Caribbean Sea.

Heading into the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, experts predicted that record-warm ocean waters would tip the scales toward an anomalously active season. That’s been the case to date, and there’s no reason to expect the ocean basin to simmer down anytime soon.

A first: Category 5 storms have formed in every ocean basin this year

Where is Hurricane Lee and how strong is it?

As of Sunday at 5 p.m., Lee was centered about 285 miles north-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands and was moving west-northwest at 8 mph. Winds were estimated at 120 mph.

Lee’s increase in strength was tied to the following:

• “Hot towers,” or tall thunderstorms, were orbiting Lee’s center or “eye,” which was becoming better defined.
• Hostile wind shear — or changing winds with altitude which disrupt thunderstorm development — had eased.
• The air pressure inside Lee had decreased. That meant a more powerful vortex and stronger inward suction, increasing winds.
• A new eyewall or ring of intense thunderstorms around the storm center was apparent on microwave infrared imagery, which is a special satellite product that allows meteorologists to peer “under the hood” at Lee’s inner structure.

Where is Lee likely to hit?

Lee is going to continue drifting west-northwest. In coming days, it will make a turn to the north, but where exactly it makes that turn remains to be seen.

The storm will be steered north between two weather systems spinning in opposite directions. Over the open Atlantic, a blocking high pressure “ridge” is spinning clockwise. Over the eastern United States, a counterclockwise-spinning “trough” of low pressure will be present. Lee should be shuttled between them and scooped north, but uncertainties in the projected strengths and positions of both steering systems mean we don’t know yet how close to the East Coast the storm will track.

If the track shifts eastward, Bermuda could be in play, too, for at least a fringing, or possibly more direct effects. That would be in the Wednesday-to-Thursday time frame.

New England — especially eastern New England and Downeast Maine — should keep tabs on the system, particularly late this week into the weekend. At least one run of the European model depicted a direct hit to Cape Cod, but that is an outlier scenario.

The most likely scenario still calls for a hit in the Canadian Maritimes. By then, Lee would probably be a nontropical storm but would be just as strong as a hurricane. With a broader wind field, significant surge would be possible, in addition to wind and flooding rains.

Regardless of where Lee heads, the eastern coastline of North America, as well as the Northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas, can expect rough surf and dangerous rip currents.

When might Hurricane Lee make landfall?

The majority of weather models keep Lee’s center offshore of the United States. Assuming it does make landfall in the Canadian Maritimes, it would be in about seven to eight days.

How strong will Lee get?

Lee is projected to become a Category 4 on Monday and remain that intense on Tuesday before slowly weakening as it moves over cooler waters during the second half of the week.

How strong will Lee be when it nears land?

When Lee passes Bermuda, it will probably be a Category 1 or low-end Category 2 storm. Fortunately, it should remain just offshore, sparing Bermuda any direct hit, though tropical storm conditions are possible.

By next weekend, the most likely scenario, though teeming with uncertainty, is for Lee to be a strong Category 1 — or perhaps Category 2-equivalent storm — as it approaches Canada’s maritime provinces. It’s not clear whether it will be fully tropical, but it’s very probable that Lee’s winds will reach farther from the storm’s center. That could bring tropical storm conditions to a much wider swath of coastline.

What do computer models project for Lee?

We can look at a “spaghetti ensemble” plot that captures the range of possibilities with Lee. Darker shadings represent areas with more overlapping possible tracks — meaning a higher likelihood that Lee goes there. Less likely scenarios are in a lighter shading.

What has made Lee stand out?

#Lee 's life story, Chapter 1: From African easterly wave to sudden extreme intensification into a Category 5 #hurricane (wait for it) pic.twitter.com/1EWakTRkBe — Stu Ostro (@StuOstro) September 8, 2023

• Lee was the first Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic this season. Since 2016, there have been seven others. One of them, Michael, made a U.S. landfall at Category 5 strength on Oct. 10, 2018.
• Lee also became the farthest southeast storm to achieve Category 5 status on record in the Atlantic.
• Moreover, Lee’s rapid intensification — spiking from an 80 mph Category 1 to an extreme 160 mph Category 5 in 24 hours — made it the most rapidly intensifying Atlantic storm on record outside the Caribbean, and the third-most swiftly strengthening Atlantic storm on record overall. Rapid intensification, while common with major hurricanes, is made more likely by the effects of human-induced climate change.

Are there any other Atlantic storms to worry about?

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Margot is midway between the coasts of South America and Africa. It had 50 mph winds early Sunday. On satellite, one could note that the bulk of the thunderstorms were located north-northeast of the low-level swirl, meaning the storm is vertically misaligned. That’s due to changing winds with height in the atmosphere known as “shear.” So long as shear is present, Margot will struggle to strengthen.

It will probably curve north-northwest and become a hurricane in coming days. By Thursday, it should be passing over the open ocean midway between Bermuda and the Azores.

How is this hurricane season stacking up?

Fourteen named storms have formed so far this season, including four hurricanes, three of which became major hurricanes. Activity perked up quickly in mid-August, with Franklin becoming a Category 4 over the open Atlantic and Idalia doing so over the Gulf of Mexico. Idalia eventually struck the Florida Big Bend as a high-end Category 2 or a low-end Category 3, then quickly weakened inland.

In terms of the number of systems, we’ve had more than is typical. Fourteen is sort of normal for an entire season, and we’ve already reached that at the midpoint. On average, a season’s fourth hurricane happens by mid-September, so we’re right on schedule there. That said, only three per year on average become major, and the average date of a season’s third major hurricane is Oct. 28 — meaning we are far outpacing what’s usual when it comes to forming major hurricanes.

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Lee Moves North After Landfall in Western Nova Scotia

Tropical storm warnings were canceled on Sunday, as the storm continued to weaken, but the weather had left many without power in Maine and Nova Scotia.

By Judson Jones

Judson Jones is a meteorologist and reporter for The Times.

Lee made landfall in Nova Scotia on Saturday afternoon as a post-tropical cyclone after transitioning from a hurricane and slightly weakening earlier in the day. The storm produced winds near hurricane-force as it reached shore, forecasters from the National Hurricane Center said, and it caused tropical storm conditions along the province and coastal Massachusetts.

All tropical storm warnings related to Lee were discontinued as of late Sunday morning.

The storm meant New England was expected to experience weather similar to what occurs during a nor’easter, said Andrew Loconto, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Boston. During nor’easters, which typically occur in late fall and through the winter months, large waves crash ashore and often flood some coastal roads.

The diminished storm produced strong tropical-storm-force winds that extended far from its epicenter and reached the coastline.

On Sunday night, there about 2,400 customers in Maine had no power, according to PowerOutage.us . In Nova Scotia, about 23,700 customers were without power, according to Nova Scotia Power , a utility company.

Here are three things to know about Lee.

Lee made landfall on Long Island, Nova Scotia, late Saturday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center said . Maximum sustained winds on Sunday morning were near 45 m.p.h. with higher gusts, which could still cause downed trees and power outages.

Lee will continue to gradually weaken over the next several days and is expected to entirely dissipate on Tuesday, the Hurricane Center said on Sunday.

Tropical storm-force winds were extending 290 miles off the storm’s center on Sunday morning, still creating dangerous surf along Atlantic Canada and the East Coast.

As of 11 a.m. on Sunday, Lee was about 135 miles west-northwest of Port Aux Basques in Newfoundland, Canada, and was moving northeast at 22 m.ph.

When a hurricane becomes post-tropical.

As the storm headed north over cooler water, Lee transitioned from a hurricane to a post-tropical cyclone on Saturday. Tropical systems like hurricanes get their energy from warm ocean temperatures and their cores expel that energy upward into the atmosphere.

A typical storm system that moves across the United States will get energy from competing air masses of cooler and warmer air. When forecasters say that a storm has transitioned to post-tropical, it has morphed into a more typical storm system with warm and cold fronts.

This process typically weakens a storm and expands how far the damaging winds stretch.

Arrival times and likelihood of damaging winds

Tropical-storm speeds or greater.

Reporting was contributed by Sydney Cromwell , Johnny Diaz , Melina Delkic , Amanda Holpuch , Mike Ives , Orlando Mayorquin , Anastasia Marks , Eduardo Medina , Chris Stanford , John Yoon and Derrick Bryson Taylor .

Judson Jones is a meteorologist and reporter for The Times, covering extreme weather around the world. More about Judson Jones

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Hurricane Lee Intensifies to Category 5: Caribbean and U.S. Impact Uncertain

Hurricane Lee's position east of the Caribbean. Photo: NHC

Less than 24 hours after being categorized as a Category 1 storm, Hurricane Lee is now “a dangerous Category 5 hurricane,” the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said in its 5 a.m. advisory on Friday morning.

Lee picked up 85 mph in that 24-hour period, tying Hurricane Matthew from 2016 as the third fastest rapid intensification in the Atlantic. There are still questions as to what impact, if any, the storm will have in the Caribbean on the U.S. as a lot depends on the storm's path.

The NHC said that Lee is expected to “move well north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend and early next week.” That area should still expect some impact, mainly “dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents” that could start as soon as Friday and last through the weekend.

Lee is currently moving at neat 14 mph toward the west-northwest, a general motion that will continue through early next week. The storm is then expected to slow down “considerably” over the southwestern Atlantic, which could lead to even more intensification.

The storm is then expected to head north, but questions remain as to what exactly its path will be. The NHC is saying that “it is way too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda late next week.”

Some models from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have the storm moving far out into the Atlantic as it moves north, while others have it closer to the East Coast of the U.S. Those along the coast, or traveling through the area, should be aware of the potential impact over the next week.

Travel update With so much uncertainty, no airlines have issued waivers for Hurricane Lee’s potential impact, but one cruise line has made a change to its schedule. 

Disney Cruise Line’s Fantasy’s Sept. 9 sailing has been switched from a Bermuda itinerary to a Western Caribbean itinerary due to Hurricane Lee. In a message to guests this week, Disney said that it had been closely monitoring” the storm and has decided to make the change ahead of its arrival.

The ship sailing out of Port Canaveral is bypassing Bermuda but adding Cozumel and George Town along with a second visit to Castaway Cay.

More changes could come, too, as ships including Oceania Insignia, Cunard’s Queen Elisabeth, Seven Seas Mariner, Royal’s Vision of the Seas, Carnival Magic, Mariner of the Seas, and more, are all scheduled to call on Bermuda ports over the next week.  

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Will Hurricane Lee affect Boston flights? Here's what conditions will be like at Logan Airport

B OSTON - With Hurricane Lee ready to pass off the Massachusetts coast, Massport is reminding Logan Airport passengers to keep an eye on their flight status.

In a statement Friday, Massport said "We are advising passengers to check with their airlines regarding any flight changes due to the storm at this time."  

Here's what kind of conditions are expected at Logan, according to WBZ-TV executive weather producer and meteorologist Terry Eliasen:

Thankfully, the forecast trend has been for the center of Lee to pass a bit farther away from the coastline of southern New England in the past 24-48 hours.

Current estimates are for Lee to pass about 200 miles east of Boston during Saturday morning (between 150-175 miles east of Cape Cod). At this distance, we do not expect a major impact or significant disruptions at Logan.

The rain shield will likely stay just east of Logan, there may just be a few showers at times scraping the coast.

Lee's wind field will be quite large as it passes our latitude, therefore, we do expect windy conditions over the next 24-36 hours in Boston and Logan.

The peak winds will come between about 11 p.m. Friday night and 11 a.m. Saturday morning. Gusts will top out around 40 mph in this timeframe.

We will see a slow decrease in wind speeds Saturday afternoon and evening, with peak gusts averaging between 20-30 mph.

Obviously, as always, if you are flying in or out of Logan this weekend, you should keep an eye out for any delays. Some more good news. Outside of Lee's impacts in New England, there is no major weather going on in the eastern United States.

Safe Travels!

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Could Hurricane Lee impact the US? Here’s when it’s supposed to turn

TAMPA, Fla. ( WFLA ) — Hurricane Lee remains a major hurricane Saturday as it continues its northwestward path through the Atlantic Ocean.

According to the National Hurricane Center, Lee was listed a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph on Saturday morning. It was moving west-northwest at 12 mph.

Located more than 300 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, Lee is expected to continue its current path as it slows down early next week.

What is considered a ‘major hurricane’?

Several Caribbean nations will experience swells from the hurricane, but Lee will be traveling “well to the north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico into early next week,” the NHC said.

As it continues getting closer to the United States, however, forecasters say any potential impacts will depend on when it will turn.

“The critical day will come Wednesday as Lee is expected to turn north, away from Florida,” Amanda Holly, meteorologist with Nexstar’s WFLA, said. “The timing of this turn is still somewhat in question. Although it is expected to turn well before it reaches the Bahamas and Florida, a slightly later turn could lead to impacts along the east or northeast coast of the United States, but it is too early to say what or where.”

Last week, Lee shattered the standard for what meteorologists call rapid intensification — when a hurricane’s sustained winds increase by 35 mph (56 kph) in 24 hours.

“This one increased by 80 mph (129 kph),” said Marshall Shepherd, director of the University of Georgia’s Atmospheric Sciences Program and a past president of the American Meteorological Society.  “I can’t emphasize this enough — we used to have this metric of 35 mph, and here’s a storm that did twice that amount and we’re seeing that happen more frequently.”

This type of intensification, forecasters say, could also be a dreadful harbinger of what is to come as ocean temperatures climb, spawning fast-growing major hurricanes that could threaten communities farther north and farther inland.

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Aside from Hurricane Lee, Tropical Storm Margot is on track to become the season’s next hurricane as it continues heading west-northwest at 143 mph in the tropical eastern Atlantic. As of a 5 a.m. update on Saturday, the storm had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, but is expected to gain strength into early next week.

The NHC’s map predicts Margot will become a hurricane Monday afternoon but not before it makes a turn north into the middle of the Atlantic, keeping it away from the United States.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

For the latest news, weather, sports, and streaming video, head to KTLA.

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Everything Vancouver travellers need to know about 'Hurricane Lee'

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As Hurricane Lee makes its way across the Atlantic, vacation hopefuls might be clenching their jaws.

While the powerful tempest alarmingly progressed to a Category 5 hurricane early Friday  (Sept. 8) morning, it has lost some strength, weakening to a Category 4 storm by Friday afternoon, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Centre (NHC). 

Category 5 hurricanes produce devastating winds in excess of 252 kilometres per hour, while Category 4 storms generate winds reaching at least 209 kilometres per hour, which can also cause catastrophic damage to buildings and trees.

The U.S. hurricane department is unsure of what, if any, impacts Lee might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda late next week. However, dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S. east coast starting on Sunday or Monday.  

The Northern Leeward Islands are currently experiencing dangerous and life-threatening surf conditions. Soon, Lee's impacts will be felt across Puerto Rico, Hispanola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda, according to the NHC.

More will be known about Hurricane Lee's path at the beginning of next week. 

If you have flights from Vancouver International Airport (YVR) that are scheduled to visit any areas impacted by severe weather, major Canadian airlines Air Canada and WestJet have recommendations for travellers. You can also visit  Canada's hurricane tracker  to see the path that storms are taking.

What should I do if I have a flight booked somewhere that could be affected by Hurricane Lee?

WestJet currently does not have a travel advisory in place for the storm but told V.I.A. that it will continue to monitor the situation closely and update its  travel advisory page  if the situation evolves.

"At this time, the forecast does not indicate significant impacts to our network or operations as a result of Hurricane Lee," the airline stated. 

Air Canada did not respond to V.I.A.'s request by our publishing deadline but also does not have an advisory in place for the tropical storm. However, it typically will re-book impacted passengers for free, space permitting, onto new flights. 

Travellers who may have been impacted by Hurricane Idalia were offered alternative travel plans in the wake of the powerful tropical storms by both airlines. 

With most airlines, some higher booking classes allow for free changes ahead of travel depending on when you make the change. Typically, the closer you get to the date of departure, the more difficult it will be to make any changes. 

If you purchased travel insurance, you may be able to cancel travel plans a week in advance. Travel insurance policies vary widely , however, so ensure you check with your provider before making a decision. 

With files from the Canadian Press. 

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Hurricane Lee slows and reorganizes

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Hurricane Lee continued to churn in the western North Atlantic on Monday, slowing down as it prepares to make a long-anticipated turn likely to bring it near Atlantic Canada or New England by this weekend. Regardless of any potential landfall, Lee will push immense amounts of water toward the U.S. East Coast later this week, causing widespread swells, rough surf, rip currents, and beach erosion.

Large waves will spread outward from Hurricane #Lee causing dangerous beach conditions and the possibility for coastal erosion along the U.S. eastern seaboard this week pic.twitter.com/0fl9usNkWi — Dr. Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) September 11, 2023

As of 11 a.m. EDT Monday , Lee was a Category 3 hurricane with top sustained winds of 120 mph, centered about 400 miles north-northeast of Puerto Rico. Lee’s structure had improved since Sunday, but the hurricane was still plagued with moderate wind shear and intrusions of dry air that have limited its reorganization. Moreover, reconnaissance flights on Monday morning found that Lee had concentric eyewalls, which will likely lead to another eyewall replacement cycle (EWRC) and make it more difficult for the hurricane’s inner core to strengthen dramatically.

Instead of intensifying, #Lee has begun another EWRC. Not going to be much of a window to strengthen after this given upwelling concerns pic.twitter.com/knYPXWjehN — Alex Boreham (@cyclonicwx) September 11, 2023

Some gradual intensification is possible as wind shear relaxes somewhat and Lee continues to pass over very warm waters (30 degrees Celsius or 86 degrees Fahrenheit) with ample deep-ocean heat content. The National Hurricane Center predicted that Lee would briefly hit minimal Category 4 strength on Tuesday.

As Lee moves slowly northwest, swells and rough surf can be expected today and Tuesday on north-facing shores of the Greater Antilles, gradually working their way into the Bahamas and Bermuda. Lee will stay far enough north that there is a less than 5 percent chance of tropical-storm-force winds reaching Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Track forecast for Lee

The large-scale outlook for Lee’s movement has changed very little over the past several days. By midweek, Lee will be rounding the southwest side of a large ridge of high pressure in the North Atlantic and will begin to feel the influence of an upper trough over eastern North America. Forecast models are in firm agreement that these factors will induce a fairly sharp northward turn around Wednesday, and a gradual northward acceleration through the rest of the week.

The exact location and timing of Lee’s midweek turn are still difficult to predict, and these will influence how far west or east Lee is positioned as it accelerates northward. The precise interaction of the ridge and trough at higher latitudes will also shape Lee’s trajectory. There is sustained and increasing agreement among models that Lee will pass to the west of Bermuda (which NHC gave a 43% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds) and head toward Atlantic Canada – most likely Nova Scotia and New Brunswick – but the track could still veer far enough west to reach New England, or far enough east to make an initial landfall in Newfoundland. The 11 a.m. Monday five-day forecast cone extended to Nantucket Island in far southeast Massachusetts, and we can expect other parts of New England and Atlantic Canada to enter the cone over the next couple of days. NHC gave Nantucket a 19% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds by 8 a.m. EDT Saturday.

Not surprisingly, #Lee will be undergoing extratropical transition as it nears New England/Atlantic Canada this weekend. The core will be gone, but we could see gale force winds or stronger over a very wide area, even if the center doesn't make a direct impact. pic.twitter.com/cHGYnfRU4t — Andy Hazelton (@AndyHazelton) September 11, 2023

Intensity forecast for Lee

Monday and Tuesday will likely mark Lee’s second and final peak of intensity after the hurricane briefly hit Category 5 strength on Friday. As it heads northwest, Lee will be moving over cooler waters churned up by the recent passage of Hurricanes Franklin and Idalia. Wind shear will increase by late week as well, and by Friday Lee will be crossing the Gulf Stream and approaching much cooler waters to its north. Lee is predicted by NHC to weaken to Category 1 strength by Friday.

As it moves north, Lee will also enlarge, its winds weakening but spreading over a much larger area. The expanded wind field will help drive the widespread effects of high surf throughout the U.S. East Coast and into Atlantic Canada.

Margot near hurricane strength, but no threat to land

As of  11 a.m. Monday,  Tropical Storm Margot was located in the remote central Atlantic, about 1,245 miles northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, headed north at 10 mph. Margot’s top sustained winds were 70 mph, and  satellite images  showed that the storm was near hurricane strength, with a prominent eye.

Sep 11, 11 AM EDT | Peak seas associated with Tropical Storm #Margot are around 21 ft near the center. Elsewhere, seas are between 8 to 12 ft. Over the next 24 hours Margot will likely intensify, therefore peak seas near the center will increase to around 29 ft. pic.twitter.com/s6gKmR37sI — NHC_TAFB (@NHC_TAFB) September 11, 2023

Margot is predicted to peak as a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds on Wednesday, then slowly weaken. Margot is not a threat to any land areas this week, but the Azores Islands may need to be concerned about the storm next week.

A new African wave has the potential to develop

A tropical wave newly-emerged from the coast of Africa (Invest 98L) is generating disorganized heavy thunderstorms along the coast of Africa. The wave is expected to move west to west-northwest at 15-20 mph, and merge later this week with another tropical disturbance (Invest 97L) located just west of the Cabo Verde Islands. This combined system may develop over the central tropical Atlantic late this week, according to the GFS and European models and many of their ensemble members.

Models/ensembles continue to suggest another MDR TC will form by this weekend, from a combo of #97L and a wave coming off. A lot of spread depending on where something consolidates, but pretty solid signal that a weakness in the ridge will allow it to turn NW before the islands. pic.twitter.com/pdnDxafi24 — Andy Hazelton (@AndyHazelton) September 11, 2023

In their 2 p.m. EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system 2-day and 7-day odds of development of 0% and 60%, respectively. Long-range forecasts currently show that this wave is likely to take a more northwesterly track later in the week, making it unlikely to pass through the Lesser Antilles Islands (see Tweet above), though a subsequent westward turn cannot be ruled out. The next name on the Atlantic list of storms is Nigel.

Catastrophic flooding in Libya from Medicane Daniel; thousands of deaths feared

As this post was finalized, reports were accumulating of what may be one of the worst weather disasters in modern African history. Torrential rains and catastrophic floods have affected multiple locations in Libya. The worst-hit location appears to be the port city of Derna on the Mediterannean coast (population around 90,000), where at least two confirmed dam failures led to severe flooding. The prime minister of eastern Libya said in an interview that at least 2,000 people are feared dead in the Derna area, according to the Egyptian news site Ahram and the Associated Press . At least 37 flood-related deaths have been confirmed elsewhere in Libya.

Some pretty extreme flooding in #Derna , Libya due after Mediterranean storm Daniel. Made a rough annotation to show possible damage based off early visuals. According to the Associated Press, as many as 2,000 are feared dead in eastern Libya. https://t.co/CbEjvaovPZ pic.twitter.com/A3WqeMQquN — Jake Godin (@JakeGodin) September 11, 2023

The rains were produced by a storm that began as an upper-level low in southeast Europe, causing extreme rains and flooding in Greece and Turkey. As the low, named Daniel, moved southward over the warm waters of the Mediterranean, it evolved into a medicane (Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone) and continued into Libya on Saturday.

Full timelapse of Storm #Daniel ⛈️ Daniel brought devastating flooding to central Greece as the system stalled in the Mediterranean Sea. When the system finally moved south, it strengthened into a Medicane tropical-like system before landfalling near Benghazi, Libya. pic.twitter.com/nCs0icxua3 — Zoom Earth (@zoom_earth) September 10, 2023

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Bob Henson is a meteorologist and journalist based in Boulder, Colorado. He has written on weather and climate for the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Weather Underground, and many freelance... More by Bob Henson

Jeff Masters

Jeff Masters, Ph.D., worked as a hurricane scientist with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. After a near-fatal flight into category 5 Hurricane Hugo, he left the Hurricane Hunters to pursue a... More by Jeff Masters

Hurricane Lee remains a major hurricane – here's what this means for New England

Lee will not impact land for the next several days, which is certainly good news. however, land interaction can serve another purpose and help shear the storm apart, by tevin wooten • published september 8, 2023 • updated on september 8, 2023 at 8:00 pm.

Major Hurricane Lee continues to remain in rare company as a major Category 4 hurricane. Friday morning, its winds were 165 mph. While we may have seen the storm at its maximum intensity, it will remain a major hurricane for several days.

Lee marks the third Category 4 hurricane of the 2023 Atlantic season. Both Hurricanes Idalia and Franklin were Category 4 at one point during their lifespan. Despite a small drop in the storm’s winds, the storm remains powerful.

Between Wednesday and Thursday, the storm underwent rapid intensification twice times over. Rapid intensification refers to a storm’s windspeed increasing by 35 mph in 24 hours. Hurricane Lee intensified by 80 mph in that time span. Only six other hurricanes have accomplished that feat: Wilma (2005), Felix (2007), Ike (2008), Matthew (2016), Maria (2017) and Eta (2020).

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Lee will not impact land for the next several days, which is certainly good news. However, land interaction can serve another purpose and help shear the storm apart. There’s less friction over the ocean and it keeps the storm intact.

In the short term, Hurricane Lee moves due north of Bermuda, still as a major Category 4 hurricane. Its forward motion will slow over the weekend. It will still be over an abnormally warm ocean too, so that will allow the storm to maintain its strength.

Most long-range models keep Hurricane Lee over the ocean, and doesn’t make a landfall. Swells will impact northeastern Florida and southeastern Georgia this weekend and early next week. And it’s very likely New England sees similar coastal impacts too.

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Beyond that, it’s far too soon to say with certainty to what extent direct impacts, if any, to the New England coast will be.

We are watching the storm slow down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic, which will mean multiple things in the coming days.

I do believe if —and that’s a big if—we were to get substantial impacts, this buys us time to prepare. We’re in the peak of hurricane season this week, so a firm plan of action for island and coastal communities should well be established at this point. This is the ready stage…of ready, set, go.

The second thing we will see play out as the storm slows, is the turn northward. That turn northward will be generated by upper-level wind energy. The storm will still be over the Caribbean and southwestern Atlantic even by next Tuesday, so time will be in our favor to get other steering parameters in the region.

This can be likened to a football team’s offensive depth chart. We know we have several starting quarterbacks who have both gotten QB1 reps…we’ve got three or four willing and able wide receivers and tight ends…but who starts on gameday will depend on how the week goes with practice, if everyone stays injury-free.

What will guide the offense, or in this case our storm, is an area of high pressure over Bermuda and an incoming area of low pressure embedded in the upper jet stream. How strong, or weak, these features are will work in tandem to bring Lee northward.

The current path and model consensus has the storm splitting the uprights, and going between Bermuda and the East Coast of the US. Ultimately this wouldn’t be a bad thing for New England. We’d likely get enough wind energy to bring strong swells and rip currents, but it’s fairly limited to that, similar to how Idalia churned up coastal waters of New England.

This would be a better setup for the East Coast. A stronger, and larger, area of low pressure would drive the jet east. That would act as a wall and force Lee, in whatever form it's in, to the east, lessening the blow.

A stronger Bermuda high pressure system would do the inverse, and guide Lee more westward to the New England coast. While not likely, it’s still a very plausible option. This still doesn’t yield a direct hit. The area of high pressure would need to be persistent in maintaining its large form, or else Lee would have open room to then wobble back west.

Ultimately movement of these storms is like steering a large ship. Most of these turns are so subtle, they aren’t even realized until after they’ve already happened.

We are at the statistical peak of hurricane season, and the season is far from over. The First Alert weather team will continue to monitor this storm and any other tropical threat as they develop.

Hurricane Lee now a Category 5 storm. What can North Carolina expect?

Hurricane Lee  is now a powerful Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 165 mph.

And it is expected to grow even stronger, with winds of 180 mph within the next 12 hours, according to the  National Hurricane Center .

A Category 5 hurricane has maximum sustained winds of at least 157 mph. There is no Category 6 hurricane.

➤  Track all active storms

While it's too soon to know what impact Lee will have on Florida or the U.S., the National Hurricane Center said dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the United States' East Coast beginning Sunday.

By 11 p.m. Thursday, Hurricane Lee had intensified by 80 mph over the past 24 hours. Only six Atlantic hurricanes since records have been kept have intensified by 80-plus hours within that time period: Wilma in 2005; Felix in 2007; Ike in 2008; Matthew in 2016; Maria in 2017 and Eta in 2020.

Farther east in the Atlantic is  Tropical Storm Margot,  which is expected to become a hurricane over the weekend.

What impact will Hurricane Lee have on North Carolina?

It is still early to know what impact Lee will have on North Carolina.

"Most models turn Lee northward, but that doesn’t happen 'til mid-next week," tweeted the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network.

"This means at least small changes to the ultimate track are likely. So the U.S. east coast should prep for potential impacts. Never hurts to be ready!"

"Building seas and long period swells from Major Hurricane Lee over the west Atlantic are forecast to lead to deteriorating boating conditions over the coastal waters, and increase the threat of life-threatening rip currents and beach erosion through all of next week," said the  National Weather Service, Melbourne.

AccuWeather  forecasters said impacts from Lee could be felt from the Caribbean to the United States and as far north as Atlantic Canada.

"At the very least, a  significant risk of dangerous rip currents  is expected along the East Coast," said AccuWeather.

Monster in the making: Hurricane season forecast: Lee breaks record before it's even born

AccuWeather forecasters said there are still several track scenarios from the middle of next week through next weekend. The timing of when Lee takes a turn to the north will be the main factor in determining the exact impacts along the East Coast.

Many of the models indicate the hurricane is likely to head northward in the Atlantic, but not all. Any  bump westward in the track could be disastrous  for the Atlantic Coast anywhere from Florida to Nova Scotia, AccuWeather said.

As Lee approaches, the jet stream could determine the extent of the direct impacts in the United States. Based on the projected track, direct impacts such as heavy rain and high winds from Lee are not expected from Florida to the Carolinas. However, it could be a different story farther to the north, especially across New England, forecasters said.

If the jet stream swings eastward, it should help to protect all of the East Coast from feeling direct rain and high winds from Lee. In this scenario, Bermuda may endure more direct impacts instead.

However, if the jet stream is stronger, dips southward and stalls as Hurricane Lee approaches, the powerful storm  could be pulled in close to the U.S.  by steering winds during the middle and latter part of next week.

"Right now, the area in the United States that really needs to pay attention includes locations from the upper part of the mid-Atlantic coast to New England," AccuWeather Chief Broadcast Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.

Weather models show a deep trough of low pressure over the eastern U.S. next week, and that dip in the jet stream "should turn Lee more to the north around this time next week," said Ryan Truchelut,  chief meteorologist at Florida-based Weather Tiger .

What does Jim Cantore have to say about Hurricane Lee?

"Is eastern North America in play? Absolutely, but its very likely we won't have some confidence for some tighter goal posts until next week. Regardless  #Lee  will be a dangerous and powerful hurricane as it decides its fate on North America," The Weather Channel meteorologist Jim Cantore tweeted.

Looking at models of Hurricane Lee into next week, Cantore tweeted:

"Some solutions into late next week (shown below) are too close to ignore. Some don't touch land. This is all common with something in the 7-10 day away range. Plus the simple fact that track errors go up rapidly after 5 days which would be this case for Lee, Any POTENTIAL USA direct impacts other than waves would likely be late next week at the earliest."

"Even though almost all of the ensemble blend members don't touch the USA, its all about the trends at this point versus actual individual operational model output," Cantore said.

"Therefore, lets watch how the some of these western players shake out. The farther west we go the harder it is to miss eastern North America. There is no reason to believe  #Lee  will weaken considerably over the next week."

Here's the latest update from the NHC as of  5 a.m. Friday:  

Hurricane Lee Category 5 storm and growing even stronger

Special note on the NHC cone:  The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time. 

• Location : 630 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands
• Maximum sustained winds : 165 mph
• Movement : west-northwest at 14 mph

Spaghetti models for Hurricane Lee

At 5 a.m., the center of Hurricane Lee was located 630 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. For those tracking the storm, it's near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 53.5 West.

Lee is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph, and this motion is expected to continue through early next week with a significant decrease in forward speed.

On the forecast track, Lee is expected to pass well to the north of the northern Leeward Islands, theVirgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend and into early next week.

Maximum sustained winds based on data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft have increased to near 165 mph, with higher gusts.

Lee is a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening isforecast today. Fluctuations in intensity are likely over the next few days, but Lee is expected to remain a major hurricane through early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 926 mb.

Hurricane Lee winds up to 165 and expected to hit 180 mph in 12 hours

Prediction and timing of winds :

• 12 hours:  180 mph
• 24 hours:  175 mph
• 36 hours:  165 mph
• 48 hours:  165 mph
• 60 hours:  160 mph
• 72 hours : 155 mph
• 96 hours:  150 mph
• 120 hours : 140 mph

A Category 5 hurricane has maximum sustained winds of at least 157 mph

Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts. 

The National Hurricane Center said there is increasing confidence the core of Lee will pass to the north of the northern Leeward Islands.

Tropical Storm Margot

• Location : 460 miles west-northwest of Cabo Verde Islands
• Maximum sustained winds : 40 mph
• Direction : west-northwest at 16 mph

At 5 a.m., the center of Tropical Storm Margot was located 460 miles west-northwest of Cabo Verde Islands. Margot is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph. This general motion is expected to continue through the weekend, followed by a turn toward the northwest early next week.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph, with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Margot is forecast to become a hurricane over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb.

Weather watches and warnings issued in North Carolina

North Carolina Weather Alerts - Warnings, Watches and Advisories

When is the Atlantic hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

When is the peak of hurricane season?

The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.

Tropical forecast over the next seven days

Excessive rainfall forecast, what's out there.

Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.

What's next? 

We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look at our  special subscription offers here . 

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The huge solar storm is keeping power grid and satellite operators on edge

Geoff Brumfiel

Willem Marx

NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured this image of solar flares early Saturday afternoon. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says there have been measurable effects and impacts from the geomagnetic storm. Solar Dynamics Observatory hide caption

NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured this image of solar flares early Saturday afternoon. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says there have been measurable effects and impacts from the geomagnetic storm.

Planet Earth is getting rocked by the biggest solar storm in decades – and the potential effects have those people in charge of power grids, communications systems and satellites on edge.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says there have been measurable effects and impacts from the geomagnetic storm that has been visible as aurora across vast swathes of the Northern Hemisphere. So far though, NOAA has seen no reports of major damage.

The Picture Show

Photos: see the northern lights from rare, solar storm.

There has been some degradation and loss to communication systems that rely on high-frequency radio waves, NOAA told NPR, as well as some preliminary indications of irregularities in power systems.

"Simply put, the power grid operators have been busy since yesterday working to keep proper, regulated current flowing without disruption," said Shawn Dahl, service coordinator for the Boulder, Co.-based Space Weather Prediction Center at NOAA.

NOAA Issues First Severe Geomagnetic Storm Watch Since 2005

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"Satellite operators are also busy monitoring spacecraft health due to the S1-S2 storm taking place along with the severe-extreme geomagnetic storm that continues even now," Dahl added, saying some GPS systems have struggled to lock locations and offered incorrect positions.

NOAA's GOES-16 satellite captured a flare erupting occurred around 2 p.m. EDT on May 9, 2024.

As NOAA had warned late Friday, the Earth has been experiencing a G5, or "Extreme," geomagnetic storm . It's the first G5 storm to hit the planet since 2003, when a similar event temporarily knocked out power in part of Sweden and damaged electrical transformers in South Africa.

The NOAA center predicted that this current storm could induce auroras visible as far south as Northern California and Alabama.

Extreme (G5) geomagnetic conditions have been observed! pic.twitter.com/qLsC8GbWus — NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (@NWSSWPC) May 10, 2024

Around the world on social media, posters put up photos of bright auroras visible in Russia , Scandinavia , the United Kingdom and continental Europe . Some reported seeing the aurora as far south as Mallorca, Spain .

The source of the solar storm is a cluster of sunspots on the sun's surface that is 17 times the diameter of the Earth. The spots are filled with tangled magnetic fields that can act as slingshots, throwing huge quantities of charged particles towards our planet. These events, known as coronal mass ejections, become more common during the peak of the Sun's 11-year solar cycle.

A powerful solar storm is bringing northern lights to unusual places

Usually, they miss the Earth, but this time, NOAA says several have headed directly toward our planet, and the agency predicted that several waves of flares will continue to slam into the Earth over the next few days.

While the storm has proven to be large, predicting the effects from such incidents can be difficult, Dahl said.

Shocking problems

The most disruptive solar storm ever recorded came in 1859. Known as the "Carrington Event," it generated shimmering auroras that were visible as far south as Mexico and Hawaii. It also fried telegraph systems throughout Europe and North America.

Stronger activity on the sun could bring more displays of the northern lights in 2024

While this geomagnetic storm will not be as strong, the world has grown more reliant on electronics and electrical systems. Depending on the orientation of the storm's magnetic field, it could induce unexpected electrical currents in long-distance power lines — those currents could cause safety systems to flip, triggering temporary power outages in some areas.

my cat just experienced the aurora borealis, one of the world's most radiant natural phenomena... and she doesn't care pic.twitter.com/Ee74FpWHFm — PJ (@kickthepj) May 10, 2024

The storm is also likely to disrupt the ionosphere, a section of Earth's atmosphere filled with charged particles. Some long-distance radio transmissions use the ionosphere to "bounce" signals around the globe, and those signals will likely be disrupted. The particles may also refract and otherwise scramble signals from the global positioning system, according to Rob Steenburgh, a space scientist with NOAA. Those effects can linger for a few days after the storm.

Like Dahl, Steenburgh said it's unclear just how bad the disruptions will be. While we are more dependent than ever on GPS, there are also more satellites in orbit. Moreover, the anomalies from the storm are constantly shifting through the ionosphere like ripples in a pool. "Outages, with any luck, should not be prolonged," Steenburgh said.

What Causes The Northern Lights? Scientists Finally Know For Sure

The radiation from the storm could have other undesirable effects. At high altitudes, it could damage satellites, while at low altitudes, it's likely to increase atmospheric drag, causing some satellites to sink toward the Earth.

The changes to orbits wreak havoc, warns Tuija Pulkkinen, chair of the department of climate and space sciences at the University of Michigan. Since the last solar maximum, companies such as SpaceX have launched thousands of satellites into low Earth orbit. Those satellites will now see their orbits unexpectedly changed.

"There's a lot of companies that haven't seen these kind of space weather effects before," she says.

The International Space Station lies within Earth's magnetosphere, so its astronauts should be mostly protected, Steenburgh says.

In a statement, NASA said that astronauts would not take additional measures to protect themselves. "NASA completed a thorough analysis of recent space weather activity and determined it posed no risk to the crew aboard the International Space Station and no additional precautionary measures are needed," the agency said late Friday.

People visit St Mary's lighthouse in Whitley Bay to see the aurora borealis on Friday in Whitley Bay, England. Ian Forsyth/Getty Images hide caption

People visit St Mary's lighthouse in Whitley Bay to see the aurora borealis on Friday in Whitley Bay, England.

While this storm will undoubtedly keep satellite operators and utilities busy over the next few days, individuals don't really need to do much to get ready.

"As far as what the general public should be doing, hopefully they're not having to do anything," Dahl said. "Weather permitting, they may be visible again tonight." He advised that the largest problem could be a brief blackout, so keeping some flashlights and a radio handy might prove helpful.

I took these photos near Ranfurly in Central Otago, New Zealand. Anyone can use them please spread far and wide. :-) https://t.co/NUWpLiqY2S — Dr Andrew Dickson reform/ACC (@AndrewDickson13) May 10, 2024

And don't forget to go outside and look up, adds Steenburgh. This event's aurora is visible much further south than usual.

A faint aurora can be detected by a modern cell phone camera, he adds, so even if you can't see it with your eyes, try taking a photo of the sky.

The aurora "is really the gift from space weather," he says.

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Big data reveals true climate impact of worldwide air travel

Global aviations emissions reporting requirements under the unfcc treaty don't show the real impact of air travel.

For the first time ever, researchers have harnessed the power of big data to calculate the per-country greenhouse gas emissions from aviation for 197 countries covered by an international treaty on climate change.

When countries signed the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change treaty, high-income countries were required to report their aviation-related emissions. But 151 middle and lower income countries, including China and India, were not required to report these emissions, although they could do so voluntarily.

This matters because the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change relies on country reports of emissions during negotiations on country-specific emissions cuts.

"Our work fills the reporting gaps, so that this can inform policy and hopefully improve future negotiations," says Jan Klenner, a PhD candidate at NTNU's Industrial Ecology Programme and the first author of the new article, which was recently published in Environmental Research Letters.

The new data show that countries such as China, for example, which did not report its 2019 aviation-related emissions, was second only to the United States when it came to total aviation-related emissions.

"Now we have a much clearer picture of aviation emissions per country, including previously unreported emissions, which tells you something about how we can go about reducing them," said Helene Muri, a research professor at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology's Industrial Ecology Programme. Muri was one of Klenner's supervisors and a co-author of the paper.

Big surprises -- or not

As might be expected, the United States is at the top of the list of emitters when it comes to the total sum of aviation emissions for both international and domestic flights.

"When we looked at how emissions are distributed per capita, we could see that economic well-being leads to more aviation activity," Klenner said.

That analysis also showed that wealthy Norway, with just 5.5 million people, was third place overall, just behind the US and Australia, when domestic emissions were calculated on a per-capita basis.

Klenner tested the model he developed for this analysis by using data from Norway. He published a paper reporting those results in 2022.

You might think that Norway's geography -- a long, narrow country with lots of mountains and a sparsely populated northern area -- would be the culprit behind the numbers. But Klenner's 2022 analysis showed that fully 50 per cent of Norway's domestic flights were between the country's major cities, Oslo, Trondheim, Stavanger, Bergen and Tromsø.

"The per person emissions in Norway were incredibly high," Muri, who also co-authored that paper, said. "With this data set we can confirm that from a Norwegian perspective we have a lot of work to do, because we are third in the world when it comes to emissions per person from domestic emissions."

A role for big data

Anders Hammer Strømman, a professor at NTNU's Industrial Ecology Programme and Klenner's co-supervisor, said one important aspect of the study is that it shows how big data can be used to help in regulating climate emissions. Strømman was also a co-author of the new paper.

"I think it very nicely illustrates the potential in this type of work, where we have previously relied on statistical offices and reporting loops that can take a year or more to get this kind of information," he said. "This model allows us to do instant emissions modeling -- we can calculate the emissions from global aviation as it happens."

The model, called AviTeam, is the first to provide information for the 45 lesser-developed countries that have never inventoried their greenhouse gas emissions from aviation. Strømman says the model provides these countries with information that might be otherwise difficult or impossible for them to collect.

The abillity to calculate nearly real-time aviation emissions could also provide an important tool as the industry makes changes to de-carbonize.

"In the transition where we're talking about the introduction of new fuels and new technologies, this type of big data allows us to identify those types of corridors or operations where it makes sense to test those strategies first," Strømman said.

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Story Source:

Materials provided by Norwegian University of Science and Technology . Original written by Nancy Bazilchuk. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.

Journal Reference :

• Jan Klenner, Helene Muri, Anders H Strømman. Domestic and international aviation emission inventories for the UNFCCC parties . Environmental Research Letters , 2024; 19 (5): 054019 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad3a7d

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