belize tourism gdp

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Belize’s tourism sector has witnessed impressive growth in recent years with overnight tourist arrivals registering double digit annual growth rates since 2016. To guide the development of the tourism sector from 2012 to 2030, the government endorsed a National Sustainable Tourism Master Plan in 2011, setting various initiatives and targets for the immediate and medium terms. Using a panel regression analysis on twelve Caribbean countries, this paper finds that accelerating structural reforms, fortifying governance frameworks, reducing crime, and mitigating the impact of natural disasters will help sustain tourism growth in Belize and contribute to economic well-being. This is in addition to tackling infrastructure bottlenecks and mitigating concerns relating to the “shared economy”.

• I. Introduction

1. Belize’s tourism sector has witnessed impressive growth in recent years with overnight tourist arrivals registering double digit annual growth rates in since 2016. Investments by major international hotels and recent plans to build a multi-million dollar cruise port off the coast of Belize City along with other planned development projects will contribute significantly to economic activity, given the small size of Belize’s economy. To guide the development of the tourism sector from 2012 to 2030, the government endorsed a National Sustainable Tourism Master Plan (NSTMP) in 2011, setting various initiatives and targets for the immediate and medium term.

2. The potential for further growth in Belize’s tourism sector is high . According to a study by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), tourism industry in Belize is still an “emerging” rather than a “mature” sector. It is a relatively new industry in Belize when compared to the long-established Caribbean tourism destinations.

3. Given the importance of the tourism sector as the key contributor of Belize’s economic well-being, this paper addresses the following questions :

How has tourism evolved in recent years?

What are the comparative advantages and challenges?

How could reforms help in sustaining tourism and contributing to economic growth?

4. This paper is organized as follows: Section A provides an overview of Belize’s tourism sector and main achievements; Section B discusses the country’s comparative advantages and bottlenecks in tourism; Section C analyzes the impact of structural and institutional reforms on tourist arrivals; and Section D concludes with a discussion of policy implications.

• II. How Has Tourism Evolved in Recent Years?

5. Belize’s tourism sector has grown rapidly in recent years, contributing strongly to economic recovery ( Figure 1 ). Tourist arrivals have increased at a rate of 8.6 percent per year from 2010-2018 (15 percent in 2018). In other Caribbean economies, tourist arrivals grew 3.5 percent per year in 2010-2018 (6.1 percent in 2018.) According to the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC), the direct contribution of tourism amounted to 15 percent of GDP in 2017, three times higher than the Caribbean average of 4.8 percent of GDP. Its total contribution, when including indirect and induced effects, was estimated at around 41.3 percent of GDP (compared to the Caribbean average of 15.2 percent of GDP). The sector provides direct employment to 13.4 percent of the labor force, rising to 37.3 percent of total employment with the inclusion of jobs that are indirectly supported by the tourism activities. With travel earnings contributing around 40 percent of total exports in 2018, up from 32 percent in 2008, tourism is also the largest earner of foreign exchange.

Belize: Tourism Sector

Citation: IMF Working Papers 2019, 267; 10.5089/9781513521268.001.A001

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Tourism Arrivals (index; 2000 = 100)

Hotel rooms occupancy rate is among the highest…

… underpinning growth in employment

6. The outturns in tourism have significantly exceeded targets set in the authorities’ National Sustainable Tourism Masterplan (NSTMP). Since the launch of the NSTMP in 2011, overnight tourist arrivals grew at 10.1 percent per year, close to three times higher than the set target, precipitating growth in tourism expenditure of 10.7 percent per year which outperformed the target. Cruise visitors grew by an average 7.5 percent per year (compounded annual rate). Although it has outperformed the target in terms of the number of visitors, cruise tourism expenditure seems to be falling short of target, reflecting either these tourists are not disembarking to visit onshore tourism sites or the lack of capacity in capturing these expenditures.

Tourism Indicators Performance

(In Compounded Annual Growth Rate)

7. The implementation of the NSTMP reforms has supported the tourism sector’s expansion. To guide the development of the tourism sector, the NSTMP 2011 proposes reforms and targets to propel Belize into an internationally recognized tourist destination by 2030. The five central focus areas include tourism governance, sustainability and quality assurance, infrastructures, marketing, and product development ( Appendix 1 ). It also sets annual growth targets from 2011 to 2030 ( Table 1 ). As of end-2018, 80 percent of the total 54 subprograms that underpin the five focus areas have been completed or in progress. The largest deliveries are in areas relating to tourism marketing, governance, and product development.

NSTMP Targets from 2011 to 2030

Implementation of Tourism Master Plan

(In percent)

Status of Tourism Sub-programs

(In number)

• III. What Are the Comparative Advantages and Challenges?

8. Belize’s rich biodiversity, multi-cultural heritage, and unique location both in Central America and on the Caribbean Sea bode well for further development of tourism. The natural comparative advantages that put Belize ahead of others in eco-tourism, adventure, and cultural tourism include:

Excellent natural resources. Belize hosts four “unique tourism assets” with international recognition, namely the Barrier Reef Reserve System, Blue Hole Marine Reserve, Caracol Mayan site and the Chiquibul Caves System which hosts a network of caves and national park.

Strong cultural heritage . The country’s rich historic background is reflected in numerous heritage sites, mostly of Mayan origin. Many Mayan sites remain unexcavated and covered and are difficult to access by road resulting in an opportunity to further develop. Moreover, the diverse mixture of ethnic backgrounds (Kriol, Garifuna, Mestizo, Maya, and Mennonite) provide a unique cultural experience.

Unique location and rich biodiversity . Belize’s geography in Central American as well as the Caribbean Sea allows for easy access and tourist movement. Despite being less than 23,000 km2, it holds a globally significant diversity of plants and animals. The Maya Golden Landscape in Toledo District, southern Belize, forms one of Central America’s last unbroken stretches of broadleaf forest. The forests extend all the way from the Maya Mountains in the west to the Caribbean Sea, forming a key link in the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor.

Characteristics Relevant for Tourism

(Red = least favorable ranking; green = most favorable) 1/

1/ Color shows ranking compared to Caribbean and EMDE countries.

2/ IMF (2016) "Small States' Resilience to Natural Disasters and Climate Change - Role for the IMF."

3/ IMF “Week at the Beach Index” measuring the average cost of a 7-day-trip in a beach destination.

4/ Indicates the contributions of health and education to worker productivity.

5/ In % of population.

6/ Based on estimate of governance performance; ranges from -2.5 (weak) to 2.5 (strong).

9. Cost competitiveness has also helped underpin the rise in tourism demand. Belize’s share of the Caribbean tourism market has been rising steadily and is associated with relatively competitive prices, as reflected in the lower cost of a one-week vacation based on the IMF’s “Week at the Beach“ Index compared to Caribbean average. In addition, the cost of electricity, at US$16/kWh, is one of the lowest in the region. A recent IMF study found the cost of electricity in the Caribbean to be persistently high over the last two decades due to serious inefficiencies in the power sector and dependence on expensive imported petroleum product. This has eroded competitiveness and contributed to the region’s high cost of doing business. 2

Tourism Arrivals and Prices 1/

Domestic Electricity Tariffs, 2017

(in US c/k Wh)

10. Nonetheless, a number of supply-side bottlenecks and challenges remain:

Concentration of hotspots and tourists . Tourists still focus on a small number of attractions (especially those centered on the reef) and North America comprises 75 percent of arrivals, implying saturation and concentration risks.

Infrastructure gaps . Belize’s water and sanitation infrastructure and coastal facilities are currently stretched. Poor level of accessibility by land—mainly due to a small amount of paved roads leading to the tourism destinations—and by air results in uneven distribution of tourism flow in the country. This creates overcrowding in some sites and underutilization of others. Insufficient waste disposal and sewage systems also leads to unhealthy conditions and visual pollution.

Institutional gaps. Another bottleneck is the lack of enabling institutional and legal environment. Certain tourism hotspots are faced with overcrowding during peak tourism periods, for example San Pedro in Ambergris Caye. Infrastructure, water supply, and sanitation there appear to be unable to cope with the volume of visitors. Although a development plan for Ambergris Caye exists, its implementation has not been possible as Belize does not have a land use policy and planning framework that allows these jurisdictions to properly plan and manage their development.

Skill shortages . The availability of appropriately skilled labor in the tourism industry is tight and finding replacement staff is difficult. 3

Natural hazards . Belize is exceptionally vulnerable to hurricanes and other weather-induced damage, which dissuade tourist arrivals. The 2018 Climate Change Policy Assessment (CCPA) indicates that Belize is highly exposed climate change and natural disasters risks. Among small states, Belize ranks 3 rd at risk for natural disasters, and 5 th at risk from climate change. The country is low-lying and will face severe damages from inundation if the sea level rises and storm surges intensify. A significant influx of sargassum seaweed has led to travel cancellations and in some cases closure of tourism businesses.

Crime. Violent crime remains high, with a homicide rate of 38 per 100,000 people, compared to a rate of 12, on average, in EMDEs. The World Bank’s 2016 Systematic Country Diagnosis report indicates that crime is the biggest threat to Belize’s tourism industry. 4 The US Department of State’s Belize 2019 Crime and Safety Report also noted that confrontational crimes, such as armed robbery and theft, have increased in tourist areas.

Governance concerns. Survey measures of governance perceptions (relating, in particular, to the rule of law) and corruption perceptions indicate room for improvement, although they need to be interpreted carefully. Steps to enhance the effectiveness of the anti-corruption framework, including through the recently operationalized Integrity Commission, together with measures to raise the efficiency of the court system, including in enforcing contracts, are needed to improve investor confidence and support further development of the tourism sector.

11. The emergence of the “shared economy” business model has also brought new challenges, in addition to opportunities. The benefits of the peer-to-peer (P2P) accommodation available to customers on digital platforms include the expansion of tourism product, service, and sector offerings; improved access to market; and opportunities for income generation. However, recent studies by the Central Bank of Belize staff (Leslie and Waight, 2019) and by World Bank staff (Bakker and Twining-Ward, 2018) also suggest that the expanding presence of rent-share and P2P accommodation could bring new challenges, including reducing expenditure levels per visitor, adversely affecting the job-intensive hotel sector, and contributes to over-crowding. In particular, P2P accommodations can reduce the demand for hotels from financially-conscious tourists while providing alternative accommodation options for upscale tourists. Similarly-priced hotels in the same areas are impacted the most. Moreover, budget P2P accommodation listings tend to compete directly with lower-end hotels and significant affect their earnings.

• IV. How Could Structural and Institutional Reforms Benefit Tourism and Belize’s Economy?

12. The positive effect of infrastructure investment on tourism has been highlighted in a number of empirical studies. A study by Ilić and Jovanović (2016) found infrastructure as an important determinant of tourism development in Southeast Europe (SEE). Specifically, the correlation between tourism competitiveness in SEE countries and the level of competitiveness of tourism infrastructure is high and significant. Turning to the Caribbean, Bolaky (2011) found that tourism competitiveness in the region can be enhanced through policy measures that include, among others, better infrastructure, increases in investment, private sector development, lower government consumption, a more flexible labor market, reduced vulnerability to natural disasters, higher human development and slow rises in oil prices.

13. This section complements existing literature by analyzing the impact of structural and institutional reforms on tourist arrivals. A panel regression analysis, based on a sample of 12 Caribbean countries 5 , provides quantitative analysis on the contributions of primary school enrollment, regulatory quality, internet access, crime rate, and damage from natural disasters to tourist arrivals. Two other explanatory variables—US real GDP growth and real effective exchange rate (REER)—are included as proxies for external factors and price competitiveness. 6 The model is represented by the following equation:

14. The results suggest that structural-institutional indicators are important drivers of tourism growth. Tourist arrivals increase with measures of educational quality, governance, security, and ICT infrastructure. The arrivals-to-population ratio (“Arrivals”) is positively associated with Primary School Enrollment, Regulatory Quality, and Internet Access. It is negatively associated with crime. Increasing enrollment at primary level by 1 percent and raising regulatory quality by 1 point is associated with “Arrivals” being higher by 0.56 percent and 41.7 percent, respectively. 7 At the same time, enhancing public access to internet by 1 percent is associated with a 0.28 percent rise in “Arrivals”.

15. Damages from natural disasters adversely affect tourism. The impact of natural disaster damages-to-GDP on “Arrivals” is significant and negative. “Arrivals” decline by 0.14 percent for every 1 percent of GDP increase in estimated economic damage. This result is broadly consistent with existing work on the effects of natural disasters on tourism. For example, a study by Bank for International Settlements Staff ( Peter, Dahlen and Saxena, 2012 ) found that a 1 percent of GDP increase in economic damage from natural disasters could lead to a 0.28 percent decline in economic growth.

Panel Regression Analysis with Tourist Arrivals-to-Population as Dependent Variable

*** p<0.01;

** p<0.05;

* p<0.10

16. External factors, including growth in the US economy, significantly influence tourist arrivals. The impact of the US economy is highly significant as a 1 percent increase in US real GDP growth is associated with an increase in “Arrivals” by 2.4 percent. For Belize, the model estimates imply that about 40 percent of the rise in tourist arrivals in 2018 are explained by US growth. 8 This reflects the large share of US tourists which accounted for 70 percent of stay-over tourist arrivals in 2018. In addition, price competitiveness proxied by the REER—although the statistical significance of its coefficient is marginal—remains economically meaningful. A 1 percent reduction in price competitiveness (a 1 percent appreciation of the REER) is associated with “Arrivals” declining by 0.2 percentage points.

Composition of Stay-Over Tourist Arrival

(In Percent Total)

17. Gaps exist in some of these metrics, relative to the neighboring countries. Belize appears to be underperforming in some of these structural and institutional indicators relative to the Caribbean, as discussed in Section III . The country is also highly susceptible to natural disasters, and damages could be costly although they may not be as high as some other neighboring countries. 9 For example, damages from the 2016 Hurricane Earl were estimated at around 4 percent of GDP, by the National Emergency Management Organization.

18. Reducing these structural-institutional gaps and potential losses associated with climate change could boost tourist arrivals and enhance economic growth. An illustrative simulation suggests that narrowing the gaps of regulatory quality, homicides rate, internet access, and natural disaster damage by ¼ to ¾ compared to the best-performing Caribbean economy could potentially increase tourist arrivals by 22 percent to 66 percent. An empirical analysis on the relationship between tourism growth and economic growth in the Caribbean by Thacker, Acevedo, and Perrelli (2012) , suggests that an increase in tourist arrivals by 1 percent could lead to a 1.7 percentage point (ppt) increase in GDP growth. This would imply an additional GDP growth of between 0.4 ppt to 1.1 ppt.

Tourism: Illustrative Gains From Structual Reforms

• V. Conclusion and Policy Implications

19. The reforms implemented based on the NSTMP over the past decade have supported the development of Belize’s tourism sector. At the same time, sustaining efforts to address various bottlenecks and challenges will help ensure continuous progress and development in tourism that will enhance economic growth.

20. Reforms in the near term should focus on addressing the impact of recurring natural hazards, infrastructure bottlenecks, fortifying the institutional and governance framework, reducing crime, and mitigating concerns relating to the “shared economy” .

Climate change. The 2018 CCPA highlights the natural perils that Belize faces—such as hurricanes, flooding, sea level rise, coastal erosion, coral bleaching, and droughts—with impacts likely to intensify given expected increases in weather volatility and sea temperature. Moreover, a significant influx of sargassum seaweed has led to travel cancellations and in some cases closure of tourism businesses. Reform priorities will include the need to mobilize substantial private investment, with official sector financial involvement playing a useful supporting role, to meet the adaptation and mitigation plans.

Infrastructure bottlenecks. Belize’s water and sanitation infrastructure and coastal facilities are currently stretched. Enhancements to the way visitation centers and valuable tourism resources are presented to tourists and to transportation to national tourism sites are needed. Expanding ICT infrastructure would cater to the swifts in tourism demand and changing tourist demographics.

Institutional and governance framework. Addressing regulatory bottlenecks and governance concerns, including in customs and public procurement, will help enhance the business environment and promote private sector capital in developing and diversifying the tourism sector. A study by Ghazanchyan, Li and Brito (2019) on the ECCU shows that improving governance, along with ease of doing business and reducing tariffs, would increase the union’s global market share of tourism by 40 percent. At the same time, establishing a land use policy and planning framework in Belize would allow jurisdictions faced with overcrowding during peak tourism periods to properly plan, implement, and manage their developments.

Reducing crime. Confronting safety and security risks to tourism will underpin perception even if tourists in Belize are rarely the victims of violent crime. The World Bank’s 2016 Systematic Country Diagnosis report indicates that crime is one significant obstacle, in addition to weaknesses in infrastructure and skillset . Policies that could help address the rise in crime rates include improving the quality of education, keeping children at school, promoting job training programs, and more direct approaches such as investing in safe neighborhood programs. A CDB Report on tourism reform highlights the successes of neighboring countries in fighting crime in tourism destinations which include, among others, better engagement with local communities which leads to “self-patrolling” (British Virgin Islands) and collaboration between the private sector and local police to develop a security plan (Grenada). A study by Plotnikov (2019 , forthcoming) on crime and output in Central America shows that crime reduces GDP by about 3 percent and tackling crime will require a combination of (i) preventive interventions that increase expected benefits from legal and non-violent activities, (ii) improving policing and other deterrence activities, and (iii) strengthening the criminal justice system to increase the cost of committing crimes while at the same time promoting the reintegration of ex-convicts in the productive economy.

“Shared economy”. Formal integration of rent-share and P2P accommodation through proper regulations, standards, registration, data sharing and taxation, in addition to “high-end” branding, and offering higher quality services and adequate physical tourism infrastructure, could alleviate its less desirable effects on income, employment, and overcrowding.

21. Medium-term priorities should focus on ensuring continuous and sustainable development of the tourism sector through vocational training and diversification of source markets and attractions. Programs that connect local industries to tourism, as well as local communities to the tourism value chain, should be developed to ensure equitable and sustainable growth in the tourism sector. Promoting formal tourism degrees and tourism graduate programs would mitigate shortages in skillsets and skilled labor. Strategic and more diversified marketing, including leveraging on ICT platforms, could reduce saturation and concentration risks, particularly as North America comprises 75 percent of arrivals at present and tourists still focus on a small number of attractions.

Bolaky , B. , 2011 . “ Tourism competitiveness in the Caribbean,” Caribbean Development Bank, ” Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean: CEPAL Review 104 .

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• Export Citation

Cheasty , A. , et al ., 2018 . “ Belize Climate Change Policy Assessment, ” IMF Country Report No. 18/329 ( Washington : International Monetary Fund ).

Familiar , J. , et al ., 2016 . “ Belize: Systematic Country Diagnostic, ” The World Bank Group Report No. 102973-BZ ( Washington : The World Bank Group ).

Ghazanchyan , M. , Zhao , L. , Brito , S. , Parlak , V. , 2019 . “ New Insights into ECCU’s Tourism Sector Competitiveness, ” IMF Working Paper WP/19/154 ( Washington : International Monetary Fund ).

Ilić , I. , and Jovanović , S. , 2016 . “ Infrastructure As Important Determinant Of Tourism Development In The Countries Of Southeast Europe, ” ECOFORUM Volume 5 , Issue 1 ( 8 ), 2016 .

Nuenninghoff , S. , Lemay , M. , Rogers , and C. , Martin , D. , 2015 . “ Sustainable Tourism in Belize, ” Inter-American Development Bank Technical Note No. IDB-TN-737 .

Peter , G. , Dahlen . S. , and Saxena , S. , 2012 . “ Unmitigated Disasters? New Evidence on the Macroeconomic Cost of Natural Catastrophes, ” BIS Working Paper No. 394

Plotnikov , D. , 2019 , “ Crime and Output in Central America: a Model, ” IMF Working Paper (forthcoming) .

Ram , J. , et al ., 2017 . “ Tourism Industry Reform: Strategies for Enhanced Economic Impact, ” Caribbean Development Bank .

Thacker , N. , Acevedo , S. , and Perrelli , R. , 2012 . “ Caribbean Growth in an International Perspective: The Role of Tourism and Size, ” IMF Working Paper WP/12/235 ( Washington : International Monetary Fund ).

World Bank Group , 2018 , “ Tourism and the Sharing Economy: Policy & Potential of Sustainable Peer-to-Peer Accommodation. ” ( Washington : The World Bank Group ).

• Appendix 1. National Sustainable Tourism Master Plan 2012–2030

In 2011, the government endorsed a National Sustainable Tourism Master Plan (NSTMP) for ensuring a dynamic, competitive, and sustainable tourism industry, with specifics reform to support its development. The NSTMP is a strategic framework with the objective of propelling Belize into an internationally recognized tourist destination by 2030. The NSTMP’s “Vision 2030” envisages Belize to be “an exclusive multicultural sustainable destination in the Central American Caribbean”, and “a destination where the authenticity and friendliness of its people, coupled with the uniqueness of an exotic natural environment can be actively experienced within a conserved world.” The strategic goals outlined in the NSTMP are:

Leadership: Support Belizean stakeholders in taking leadership over sustainable tourism development

Optimization: Optimize socioeconomic benefits from tourism

Sustainability: Undertake sustainable and planned tourism development

Competitiveness: Achieve competitiveness as a world-class destination

2. Market growth will be driven by the high value foreign tourists and domestic travels . The NSTMP aims to achieve the following:

Few but strong source markets: The European main source markets (such as German, French and English) will have been tapped and a growing stream of high value European tourist will be visiting Belize. Belizean traditional markets (USA and Canada) will be enhanced and consolidated in mid-high end segments. The main source markets for Belize are expected to be few but to generate high value.

Specialized in niche market segments: Additional market growth will come from consolidated highly specialized market drivers such as cavers, divers, pocket cruisers, honeymooners, yachties and sailors, adventure seekers, among others. These segments will be attracting a more diversified target source market.

Dynamic cross-border movement: Increasingly, intraregional travelers will be crossing border points to reach Belize as more and better connectivity is reached, with cross-product synergies to neighboring countries through such products as the Mayan Heritage Trail, nautical routes as well as a highly attractive shopping and entertainment offering. Intraregional travelers will be from both the international and regional markets.

Domestic travels: domestic travels will increase, making the Belizean residents feel and experience the country as it is one of the tourism World Class destinations of their own.

Chapter 13 of the IMF study provides further details.

According to an IDB study, although there has been considerable progress in establishing tourism-specific training and developing expertise in the sector, labor skills and attitudes are still considered by some to impede development of the sector. Moreover, finding replacement staff is difficult, not because of a tight labor market but because of the overall lack of workplace skills.

Based on anecdotal evidence from focus group discussions with the Belize Tourism Board and the Belize Chamber of Commerce.

Comprising Belize, Bahamas, Barbados, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Jamaica, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadine, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, Dominican Republic.

As in Ghazanchyan et.al. (2019) , prices are proxied by the REER.

The high coefficient for regulatory quality is driven by the very small annual change in the index. Over a 30-year period, the magnitude of annual change is only 0.0002 points, on average, for the sample of 12 Caribbean countries.

In 2018, overnight tourist arrivals increased by 63,290 compared with 2017. The US growth of 2.9 percent in 2018 added an estimated 7 percentage points to Belize’s tourism/population ratio, or an extra 27,000 of tourist arrivals.

The 2018 Climate Change Policy Assessment (CCPA) indicates that among small states, Belize ranks 3 rd at risk for natural disasters, and 5th at risk from climate change. The country is low-lying and will face severe damages from inundation if the sea level rises and storm surges intensify.

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Table of Contents

• Front Matter
• Tourism In Belize: Ensuring Sustained Growth
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Belize Tourism Recovers: Industry Poised for Further Growth in 2023

• February 9, 2023
• Posted by: BTB Admin
• Category: Business plans, International, News

Belize City, Belize, 25 th  January 2023: The latest statistics for both overnight and cruise ship tourist arrivals provide a clear and strong signal that Belize’s tourism has recovered and is now poised to achieve higher records in the New Year.  Last year, 2022, registered 370,524 overnight tourist arrivals representing a 69.2% growth over the previous year. The year 2022, also registered 615,021 cruise tourism arrivals with 40 cruise ship calls on Belizean ports in December. Please see further details in the tables below:

2022 Overnight Tourist Arrivals Breakdown:

2022 Cruise Ship Passenger Arrivals Breakdown:

The Belize Tourism Board (BTB) is pleased with the industry’s swift recovery and notes that the surge in international flights to Belize, assertive marketing in our source markets, and the strong support and collaboration from industry stakeholders were the main elements for a successful year.

The BTB remains committed to proactively and effectively promote Belize as a premier destination for the benefit of both Belizeans and international travelers and looks forward to the industry’s further growth in 2023.

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The World Bank In Belize

Belize has a unique cultural heritage and is the only English-speaking country in Central America. The country is remarkably diverse ecologically, with extensive natural capital along the coast, including the largest coral reef in the Americas and an extensive mangroves ecosystem.

Belize is an upper middle-income country in Central America with close sociopolitical and economic ties to the Caribbean. In 2022, Belize had a population of 400,000, a gross domestic product (GDP) of $2.5 billion, and a per capita GDP of $6049. As a CARICOM member, Belize enjoys access to members’ markets and benefits from the trade agreements established through this economic union. Belize has an export-oriented economy that benefits from its proximity to the large markets of the United States and Mexico. Belize also has a unique cultural heritage and is the only English-speaking country in Central America.

Tourism is the most important source of foreign exchange in Belize, followed by agricultural exports and, to a lesser extent, crude oil. Remittance inflows are another major foreign exchange source that provide substantial support for consumption.

The latest poverty statistics indicate that over a third of the population lived in multidimensional poverty (in 2021) and over half could not afford adequate nutrition and basic non-food items (in 2018). Low levels of female labor force participation hamper poverty reduction and contribute to a tight labor market. Women and Mayans are more likely to be self-employed and poor, indicating a structural difference in employment and poverty outcomes.

Belize’s prospects for sustainable growth and inclusion depend significantly on maintaining environmental preservation and building economic resilience. Belize is remarkably diverse ecologically, with extensive natural capital along the coast, including the largest coral reef in the Americas and an extensive mangroves ecosystem. Both ecosystems play a key role in buffering Belize’s low-lying coastline against adverse climate events, helping to prevent loss of life, property damage, and coastal erosion. Belize also benefits from extensive areas covered by pristine tropical forests that are vital to limiting soil erosion, runoffs, and flooding.

Belize experienced a sound economic rebound, fueled by increased tourism arrivals and tourism-related construction, and real GDP per capita surpassed its pre-pandemic level in 2022 after the GDP growth rate reached 15.2 percent in 2021 and estimated 9.6 percent in 2023. Despite an external debt restructuring in 2021 and significant fiscal consolidation, public debt remains high at 72.8 percent of GDP in 2022.  The unemployment rate fell to 5 percent, the lowest ever recorded – though labor participation remains low. Policy priorities include continued fiscal restraint, growth-enhancing structural reforms, addressing the impacts of climate change, and protecting the vulnerable. The economy is expected to grow at a rate of 2-3 percent in the medium term.

World Bank Group Program

The World Bank's portfolio in Belize includes three active projects with a total commitment of US$39.2million as of FY2023. Overall, the Bank's work in Belize focuses on building climate resilience and sustainability, promoting financial inclusion and social resilience, and responding to crises and emergencies, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. The Bank’s projects address cross-cutting issues such as climate change, energy resilience, sustainable agriculture, and health sector resilience, which are essential for sustainable development in Belize.

The Climate Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture Project is aimed at scaling up longer term investments that increase food production capacity and promote the adoption of climate-smart agricultural approaches.

The Belize COVID-19 Response Project aims to provide support to the Government of Belize to acquire and deploy COVID-19 vaccines and strengthen overall health sector resilience.

The Belize Energy Resilience for Climate Adaptation (GEF/SCCF) project aims to enhance the resilience of the energy system to adverse weather and climate change impacts through long-term planning and capacity building.

Further, the Bank is actively addressing climate-related development challenges through renewable energy initiatives with the International Finance Corporation (IFC), and support to Belize’s blue economy. The Bank is currently preparing a Renewable Integration and Resilient Energy Project to support energy storage and resilient grid investments that will enable the integration of private solar generation in the Belize electricity system, as well as a Blue Economy” Program to incorporate green, resilient, and circular economy issues and support water sector investments, wastewater management, marine pollution reduction, and strengthened coastal cities.

The World Bank is undertaking a Public Expenditure Review (PER) to help address the government’s objectives of for fiscal consolidation and debt sustainability. The study aims to improve the efficiency, effectiveness, and equity of public expenditure, identifying potential for expenditure savings, and reforms that support fiscal consolidation and an inclusive economic recovery. The PER is focusing on enhancing fiscal policy and the structure and composition of public expenditures, improving value for money in health and education, enhancing budgetary institutions, and improving capital investment, to promote sustainable and inclusive macroeconomic recovery, and enhance debt sustainability.

Further, the Bank is actively addressing climate-related development challenges through renewable energy initiatives with the International Finance Corporation (IFC), and support to Belize’s blue space. The Bank is currently preparing operations to enhance renewable energy integration and climate resilience I the energy sector, as well as a "Blue Cities and Beyond" Program to incorporate green, resilient, and circular economy issues and support water sector investments, wastewater management, marine pollution reduction, and strengthened coastal cities.

IFC has previously committed projects in the aquaculture sector (shrimp) and the banking sector (trade finance) in Belize.  It has also provided advisory services to the financial sector to help it increase services to SMEs, and support to government on financial infrastructure to encourage local bank lending to SMEs including setting up a collateral registry and a credit bureau.

IFC is currently providing advisory and transaction support to the Government of Belize through the Scaling Solar Program to attract private-sector independent power producers (IPPs) to develop a utility scale solar plant. This work, in collaboration with IBRD’s Renewable Integration and Resilient Energy Project includes creating an enabling environment to boost investor confidence and reduce the perceived country/sector risk in order to unlock private capital, increase competition and drive down energy prices.

IFC is working on increasing its activities in Belize with a focus on the agribusiness sector and SME access to finance through local financial institutions. 

MIGA has no portfolio in Belize but is considering providing guarantee support to the Renewable Energy Integration Project.

Our operations in Belize have strengthened road and energy infrastructure, supported the sustainable management of natural resources, and promoted climate resilience and environmental sustainability. We also responded to socio-economic hardship caused by climate change and COVID-19 through operations in the social protection and in the agriculture sectors.

Climate Resilient Infrastructure Project

The Climate Resilient Infrastructure Project (P127338) enhanced the resilience of Belize’s road infrastructure against flood risk and impacts of climate change while improving the country’s capacity to respond promptly to emergency and crisis situations. As a result:

• 17 river crossings and culverts were improved.
• 9 km of non-rural roads were rehabilitated.
• 101 individuals, including 9 women, were trained to conduct GIS analysis, flood risk analysis and road maintenance.
• The number of localized hazard maps and related data layers exceeded targets with a total of 33. Maps are for a wide range of interventions inclusive of flood hazards, sea walls, hurricane shelters, police stations, fire risks, agriculture, education centers, urban land use, etc. at the global, national, and local levels.
• Through the activation of the Contingent Emergency Response Component (CERC), the project successfully supported a national response to the COVID‐19 pandemic, providing emergency assistance to over 176,500 vulnerable people (44,785 households) through cash transfers, agricultural inputs, and technical assistance.
• 40.2% of the total beneficiaries were women.
• The CERC also provided the necessary support for the restoration of livelihoods for 2,481 female farmers through cash compensation.
• Under CERC, the BOOST program, which stands for Building Opportunities for Our Social Transformation, provided small cash assistance to 2,300 poor households, exceeding its project target.
• Support provided through the Belize COVID 19 Cash Transfer Programme (BCCAT) emergency assistance programme reached over 45,000 women (52 percent of total program beneficiaries).

Environmental Sustainability

• The Marine Conservation and Climate Adaptation Project (MCCAP) increased protections and restoration efforts to conserve coastal resources, helped to build sustainable and alternative livelihoods for coastal communities to relieve human pressures on the coral reef and to help adaptations to a changing climate, and built public awareness about climate change and the importance of marine resources.
• The Promoting Sustainable Natural Resource-Based Livelihoods project (P132098)  successfully increased human resilience to climate change impacts in 25 poor rural communities.
• By engaging approximately 600 members of beneficiary groups in sustainable livelihood sub-projects and providing training for the development and management of sustainable livelihood activities to 928 people, the project reduced anthropogenic pressure on the natural resource base and benefitted vulnerable households.

Fostering Climate Resilience and Environmental Sustainability

• Developed and adopted methodologies to enhance climate resilience in energy planning.
• The transmission network is being segmented and protected against cascading line faults, and weak transmission sections are being reinforced to improve resilience.
• Protected 405,512 hectares of marine areas for biodiversity, exceeding the target of 386,612 hectares.
• Provided capacity-building support to 5,948 people, exceeding the target of 5,000 people.

Promoting Financial Inclusion & Social Resilience

• The percentage of individuals with an account at a financial institution has increased from 48.2% in 2014 to 66% in 2019.
• Provided financial support to farmers severely affected by the pandemic through distribution assistance, agricultural equipment, tools and supplies, protective equipment, and technical support. This support has specifically targeted women involved in agriculture and small farmers.
• Increased the percentage of eligible population fully vaccinated from a baseline of 19% to an ongoing target of 75%.
• Provided emergency cash transfers to 5,543 beneficiaries and improved women's economic inclusion policy formulation.

Infrastructure Development

• The Municipal Development Project reached the targets of 69,177 direct beneficiaries – including 35,280 female beneficiaries, and 88,056 indirect beneficiaries (exceeding the original target).
• The Project financed 33.7 km of drainage, 14.85 km of road rehabilitation, 140 road intersections improvements, and 214 traffic signs. The project further supported nine town councils, building their administrative capacity, and trained 220 staff.

Rural Development & Sustainable Livelihoods

The Belize Promoting Sustainable Natural Resource-based Livelihoods project (P132098) provides good examples of support to vulnerable groups.

• The project supported 25 underprivileged rural communities, including one community primarily composed of the Garinagu people, one composed of the Maya people, and some are a mixture of multiple ethnic groups. The project provided 10 community mobilization workshops for all of these communities, in which 386 people participated. The project also provided 63 training sessions on various subjects from business skills to sub-project specific techniques, in which 915 people participated.
• The project successfully identified 17 natural resource-based livelihoods sub-projects, of which four groups composed of or include Maya people, two groups include Garinagu people, five groups composed exclusively of women, and one group composed of agricultural immigrants. The total number of beneficiaries from these sub-projects were 582 people, of which 268 people (46%) were women, and 112 people were youth.
• The sub-projects were successful in generating revenues, such as the Trio Pineapple Production, which earned revenues of US$33,557, translating to US$1,864/household and a 339% increase in household income from the baseline.
• The Junajil K’anjel San Miguel Pig Rearing Group sold eight pigs and made US$3,278 ($2,086 for meat and $596 for live mass), which translated to US$328/household and a 60% increase in household income.

The San Felipe and Sarteneja Honey producers harvested 50-55 gallons of honey each, with Sarteneja earning US$1,848 for 28 cases, which translated to US$184/household and a 33% increase in household income. The Belize Lionfish Jewelry Group also made sales worth US$3,000 at a special one-day sale and seminar event at the World Bank Headquarters.

Social & Economic Development

To bolster Belize's social and economic landscape, the Productive Inclusion and Female Entrepreneurship Advisory Services and Analytics (ASA) project, P178697 made significant strides in strengthening social protection policies and fostering economic inclusion.

The ASA supported the evaluation and informed the design of the BOOST+ and Women’s Entrepreneurship Program (WEP). It contributed to increasing Government’s capacity to design and implement gender-sensitive social protection policies and programs focused on economic inclusion of women and improved program capacity to assess and match the BOOST+ beneficiaries to in demand skills/job training or entrepreneurship programs that the Government will continue to implement.

BOOST+ Pilot Evaluation:

·      Conducted outcome and process evaluations of the BOOST+ pilot program.

·      Provided the first assessment of the "wrap-around" service model's impact on families.

·      Identified positive outcomes, including increased employment, earnings, and financial inclusion.

·      Highlighted areas for improvement, such as referral organization and addressing health and nutrition issues.

Women’s Entrepreneurship Program (WEP) Pilot Technical Note:

·      Delivered a technical note on potential design options for the WEP pilot.

·      Focused on interventions like assessments, referrals, training in business management skills, and continuous support for business plan development.

·      Provided suggested monitoring and evaluation indicators and program targets.

Capacity Building and Informed Decision-Making:

·      Generated evidence and roadmaps for better program design and implementation.

·      Enhanced the client’s capacity to make informed decisions.

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Quarterly growth rate of hospitality GDP in Belize 2018-2022

Belize's gross domestic product, the recovery of tourism in belize, percentage change in the contribution of hotels and restaurants to gdp in belize from 1st quarter 2018 to 4th quarter 2022.

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Q1 2018 to Q4 2022

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Tourism in Belize

Development of the tourism sector in belize from 1995 to 2021.

Revenues from tourism

All data for Belize in detail

Belize’s Economy Today

• March 14, 2021
• by Larry Waight +

The economy of Belize continues to revolve around a number of key sectors, and GDP growth in the country is affected significantly by output in these areas, most notably agriculture. This makes the country’s economic performance particularly vulnerable to fluctuations in world commodity markets. Tourism, crude oil exports and International Business are also major contributors to the Belize economy, with tourists coming to Belize being the country’s main foreign exchange earner.

The immediate economic forecasts for Belize are relatively healthy, with growth for 2018 estimated at 2.1%. with agricultural output expected to rise alongside a growth in inbound tourism.

Agriculture

It is estimated that agriculture accounts for just under 10% of Belize’s GDP, and the country has a number of significant exports. Sugar and timber have always been staples, but the agriculture sector has undergone diversification and now bananas, citrus fruits and fish products are also important export products.

Agricultural exports do, however, tend to be subject to fluctuations in global commodity markets, a problem that Belize has been subject to even before independence and as far back as the 18th century (when it was still known as British Honduras) when the mahogany trade was already one of Belize’s primary exports. Forestry continues to this day to be a strong economic performer, although predominantly in the realm of preserving the country’s many forest reserves as eco-tourism destinations.

International Business

Since 1990 and the enactment of the International Business Companies Act, Belize has become a center for international financial transactions and offshore investment and banking. A Belize International Business Company is able to be organised in a more flexible way than is permitted in most other jurisdictions, and provides more privacy for shareholders and directors, who cannot be identified from public records. In addition, offshore companies registered in Belize are exempt from paying income tax.

Another way in which Belize has carved out a niche for itself in the global economy is in the e-gaming licensing industry (visit top5casinosites.co.uk to see major online casinos that are operating under a Belize e-gaming license). The Computer Wagering Licensing Act (1995), which was introduced in May 1996, enables gambling companies licensed in Belize to provide casino games and sports betting services for players who are based outside of the country. A number of major international gambling brands are therefore licensed to operate from Belize and this function continues to make an important contribution to the services economy.

Online gambling regulation has, however, become a much more competitive industry, particularly as a number of major countries, most notably the UK, have now introduced their own online gambling licensing and regulatory authorities. Nevertheless, the industry is still strong on Belize and there is potential for it to diversify and remain a key player by becoming a licensing authority for crypto-currency casino and sports betting based on blockchain technology.

Crude oils sales also play a role in the economy of Belize and, although prices are subject to great worldwide volatility, it has been an area in which there has been recent growth, with exports up $1.9 million in January 2018 compared with the same time in 2017, despite no change in production levels.

However, the exploration and development of oil fields is not straightforward in Belize, and so there would need to be a significant uptick in the price of crude for it to be worthwhile for oil companies to make further major investments in the country in the immediate future.

Tourism currently makes a direct contribution of just under 20% to Belize’s GDP, while the total contribution is over 45%. Around 13% of the country’s population is directly employed in the tourism industry and so its importance cannot be overstated. It is also shown that tourism has a positive effect on a number of other key economic sectors, notably the agricultural, international business and construction industries.

Ecotourism in particular is a growing sector, with the authorities increasing the number and range of protected natural and historical attractions in a bid to capture an ever-greater share of this burgeoning international market.

Places like the Great Blue Hole , Thousand Foot Falls, Caye Caulker, the Belize Barrier Reef and countless other natural and archaeological sites attract visitors from around the world, and numbers are only likely to increase as the economy becomes more tourism driven and the government and authorities become more proactive in promoting this specific sector of the tourist industry.

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COPA Airlines Resumes Flight Service to Belize

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